Theresa May’s gamble spectacularly backfires as she ends up with a hung Parliament and Boris waiting in the wings…

Wow. Politics continues to surprise us. What many thought would be a walkover for the Conservatives has ended up costing them their majority and putting May’s leadership on the line.

Chart from the BBC

What will happen next? Will May resign? Will Boris be the new leader of the Conservative Party? Will  Jeremy Corbyn become Prime Minister? Will there be a new election in the autumn? There is a lot of questions and not much answers.

There will be much analysis over the next few days but for now, it’s over to you to give your view in the comments.

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  • hgreen

    SF should be ashamed of themselves. They are now actively working against the best interests of their constituents. Well done.

  • Korhomme

    An autumn election? Another election?

    Haven’t we had enough?

  • Brendan Heading

    I’m holding out for Philip Hammond to emerge as a leadership candidate. Theresa May is indicating this morning that she will go on, which technically she could do with DUP support, but she looks like a busted flush at this point as the decision to call an election exposes the reality that she has very poor political judgement.

  • Jag

    In Trump’s USA, in the Brexit referendum and now in this election, the traditionally (self) disenfranchised have come out and voted.

    If social media was responsible for the Arab Spring in 2010-2012, is it now also responsible for engaging all voters?

    With respect to the specific results, Theresa May will be gone by midday, sterling is down 2%, our Brexit negotiations are in tatters (May’s hard-Brexit v Jeremy’s market access/freedom of movement) and the only feasible government is Tory/DUP. Gregory Campbell for culture secretary! Gavin Robinson for Secretary of State!

  • james

    Regarding the collapse in the SNP vote, it will be interesting to see how SF spin that one into the usual, tiresome ‘more good news’ narrative. It did look very much like one of the key pillars on which their hope for a border poll rested on – so much for that….

    Would also be interesting if the Tories do indeed bring in the DUP to get them over the line.

    All in all, there will be a lot of long faces amongst the Republican brotherhood section of the Slugger community this morning

  • Barneyt

    Yes a Tory DUP pact would signal the start of a completely polarised UK. Could the torys get in bed with a party effectively endorsed by loyalist paramilitaries? Probably I’d say. I don’t think sf hinge their border poll claims on events in Scotland however.

  • 05OCT68

    A party of the working class propping up the tories means no chance of a return to Stormont, prepare for water charges, bedroom tax in NI courtsey of the DUP.

  • Reader

    That seems harsh. While I have always enjoyed SF’s abstentionist policy, they have always presented it as a matter of principle. On that particular matter, they have always been quite clear to their voters too – WYSIWYG.
    On the other hand. I wouldn’t mind discovering that they have been dishonest all along, either.

  • SeaanUiNeill

    You are perhaps forgetting that any political investment, or any benefit from it, “can go down as well as up”. It was always going to be unlikely that the massive support for the Scottish Nationalist could sustain the high level of the last election, but they are still the largest group elected despite the drop in seats……

  • Reader

    Wrong way round. The DUP are a populist party and would extract a populist price for a pact. The main problem is that the DUP are also a bit fundie, and may extract a fundie price too.

  • 05OCT68

    So bedroom tax etc will be scrapped in GB courtesy of the DUP?

  • SeaanUiNeill

    Reader, while the DUP certainly aim at a demagogic style to attract votes, they are simply populist rather than leftist. these are quite different things. Accordingly, to my mind, they are not that concerned to ensure protective policies for their working class voters, as long as the electoral standing orders are not reminded. They are certainly not averse to spending public money, I’d agree, as the pellets business shows, but they have the populist Unionist vote in the bag simply by shouting “The Union in Danger”, so there is little need to do much more. As long as everyone votes on the constitutional issue of “Union or Re-unification” their attention is distracted and anyone could ransack their genuine political needs with impunity.

  • Brendan Heading

    All in all, there will be a lot of long faces amongst the Republican brotherhood section of the Slugger community this morning

    Were we watching the same election ? The republican brotherhood gained three seats, one of them at the expense of the DUP/UUP joint candidate.

  • 05OCT68

    It was wonderful watching the reaction to the exit poll & even better the predicted tory losses. As for the NI result, fu*king depressing & a disaster for Derry.

  • Reader

    05OCT68: So bedroom tax etc will be scrapped in GB courtesy of the DUP?
    Where would you get such an idea? The DUP will want treats targeted on the Northern Ireland electorate, plus protection for the DUP’s own quirks.
    Look, it’s early days. The Conservatives may decide from the outset that the DUP are toxic. Even if they get past that, any agreement may well founder over boundary changes, where DUP and Conservative interests are diametrically opposed.

  • 05OCT68

    Would he Great British public put up with a government with the DUP as king makers?

  • Jag

    After the March Assembly elections. SF/SDLP would have hoped for 8 seats, maybe 9 if N Belfast fell, and with 1 Alliance, Unionism would have been in a minority with 7 DUP and 1 Sylvia H. Instead, DUP took S Belfast, and Alliance was no-where in the end. Regaining FST was overshadowed by the Nationalism/Unionism shock of the night with S Belfast falling to the DUP.

    So, I think nationalists (rather than “Republicans”) might have long faces this morning (still at 7 compared with 2015 but they’d have reasonably hoped for 8 plus 1 alliance).

    For the SDLP, the writing is on the wall and in the next election (probably within 12 months), there will be some understanding in S Belfast?

  • 05OCT68

    Without stormont, treats can’t be targeted on NI.

  • Reader

    05OCT68: Without stormont, treats can’t be targeted on NI.
    Of course they can. Direct rule can do that, no problem.

  • Redstar

    Deliciously ironic that the Tories and the Tory press roared with outrage about Corbyns support for a party close to paramilitaries and we now have HMG to be propped up by a party supported by paramilitaries who were actually killing during the election campaign

  • 05OCT68

    Aye & when Manchester, Leeds, Liverpool, Birmingham demand the same treats will the tories relent?

  • hgreen

    The bible bashing, women and minority hating, climate change denying DUP could be toxic for the Tories.

  • Obelisk

    I think we can forget about Boundary changes for anyone…

  • Pang

    May seems comfortable with Trump’s support, I am sure she could justify Arlene’s.

  • Reader

    Who is the Secretary of State for Manchester? And those aren’t devolved administrations with their own laws and budgets. But, if the matter comes up for discussion, the government will simply refer to the Northern Powerhouse or create a few apprenticeships.

  • BonaparteOCoonassa

    Hardly a collapse. The SNP are still by far the largest party in Scotland. Tory gains were mostly in the north east, where support for Brexit among farmers and fishermen was strong. Once the consequences of even a soft Brexit become evident in two years or so, I expect the SNP to get those seats back. Clearly, the SNP hold on 50+ seats was never realistically going to last.

  • BonaparteOCoonassa

    There’s always a silver lining!

  • Obelisk

    Still Bonaparte it’s not a great result. I am sure people will try and analyse what went wrong with the SNP campaign so it will be interesting to understand that analysis.

    It also remains to be seen whether it was a vote against independence or a vote against the SNP, or perhaps if it was more reflective of the anti-independence vote consolidating behind the Tories.

    So yes, it’s a win but it’s also a setback. Have to approach that it is a setback honestly and move from there. A lot of Unionist commentators will be expressing the belief that this means we have passed ‘peak-Nat’ and that the Union is secure.

    Those of us in the north of Ireland know that this will not be the case. Once the constitutional issue becomes the dominant theme, it becomes remarkably hard to shift and every election will be about that issue.

    The SNP suffered a hit last night, but are still the largest party. I suspect talk of Independence referendum 2 will quieten for a bit, Sturgeon indicated as much before the polls, and the SNP will wait to see what kind of Brexit we are now to have now that the Tories dreams of a commanding majority have been shattered.

  • hgreen

    I can only assume they now stand for Westminster for monetary and party funding reasons. Their policy of abstention is now harming their own constituents.

  • 05OCT68

    My point is while we have a devolved parliament we don’t have a devolved government. SF are unlikely to return to Stormont if the DUP hold the balance of power in GB & Arlene refusing to step aside re: RHI ( a SF red line). The bedroom tax is already here in NI it’s just that the devolved government paid the tax from the block grant, a proposed VAT reduction also meant the block grant being readjusted.The block grant is in effect gone while NI has no government. The cities of the Northern Powerhouse also wanted a VAT reduction in that region although it wasn’t part of the government strategy, if it’s granted in NI by direct rule then the Northern Powerhouse will demand it also. Will the people of GB be happy with NI getting the sweeties, without a
    devolved government? Remember securing the GFA etc made made budgetary concessions palatable here. The tories are unlikely to give out the sweeties unless Stormont returns.

  • DOUG

    “Deliciously” perhaps not the word I’d use to describe it.

  • Reader

    05OCT68: Will the people of GB be happy with NI getting the sweeties, without a devolved government? Remember securing the GFA etc made made budgetary concessions palatable here. The tories are unlikely to give out the sweeties unless Stormont returns.
    I think I see where you are coming from, but I disagree that the GB population pays any attention to the detail here. VAT won’t arise as an issue – instead it will all be petty stuff, flying under the radar everywhere except here. That’s the advantage of being a mere 2% of the electorate.
    Even with no Stormont, the DUP could e.g. insist on the SoS protecting the budget, and doing the paperwork to keep the bedroom tax adjustment in place. It’s better with no Stormont, as SF doesn’t get to share the credit.
    Similarly, protecting the free prescriptions, free travel for pensioners – all the other sweeties that are robbing the NHS can be protected and even subsidised. Is Labour GB going to make a big fuss about populist policies?

  • Reader

    SeaanUiNeill: …but they have the populist Unionist vote in the bag simply by shouting “The Union in Danger”, so there is little need to do much more…
    Well, now that you have got that off your chest, do you have a prediction?

  • Reader

    hgreen: Their policy of abstention is now harming their own constituents.
    In my view, their policy of abstention always harmed their constituents, who didn’t seem to mind. SF just gained 2 seats and the SDLP lost 2 seats – how important was abstentionism in those battles?

  • hgreen

    Basically the west of the Bann is no longer represented at Westminster. Idiots.

  • JoeHassit

    Just because you don’t like it doesn’t make it idiotic. People knew exactly what they were voting for.

  • hgreen

    Abstentionism had little impact or relevance until now.

  • lizmcneill

    The DUP don’t represent large chunks of the eat particularly, either.

  • 05OCT68

    Well we’re about to find out, It seems this PM will endure any shame to hold onto #10.

  • SeaanUiNeill

    Now Teresa did pick some of the very worst astrological configurations for her election, with the dangers of that current trine between Venus (Teresa) in her own native sign, (Taurus) and Saturn (the DUP, something “stale and male”) weak in mutable Sagittarius. She should have paid attention to that Venus being retrograde (going backwards) with slow, implacable old Saturn being “direct”, or moving forwards. And in such an alliance, which partner mythologically speaking, is noted for “eating its own children’?

    What does this all mean? The DUP are already very embarrassing “friends” for British Unionists such as, say, Ruth Davidson, who has distanced her Unionism from theirs quite often.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-40229826

    Unlike the 1911 marriage between the IPP and Asquith, where the Home Rule policy was a genuine community of interest, DUP attitudes and policies, and even very rightist Conservative attitudes in England show more differences than similarities. We have already had the wits suggest online that Teresa will have to do all manner of odd things to ensure their votes, but perhaps truth will be stranger than fiction and they will actually attempt to put over on the conservative administration those self-same arrogant and bullying tactics that have marked Unionist majoritarianism’s style for over a century.

    But even if they don’t submit to this temptation, we have had a very clear example of how an earlier Conservative administration might destroy their “allies” while in coalition in the relationship of Cameron and the Liberal Democrats. My prediction is “woe to the junior partner either way. If they co-operate, they ill be broken on the sheer weakness of their allies; if they manipulate their partner with threats, devastating revenge will be all the sweeter to Teresa’s successors. Do you remember Paisley letting the cat out of the bag during that “explosive interview” with Eamonn Mallie about the threat of an immediate re-unification of Ireland if he did not swallow the position of a lifetime, knuckle under the Belfast Agreement’s terms and go into government with SF? One way or another, the realities suggest that the DUP are nowhere near the position of strength they appear to believe is now theirs, certainly not in any long term as their partners weaknesses become more and more obvious.

  • BonaparteOCoonassa

    Oh well, “two steps forward, one step back” to quote Lenin.

  • Obelisk

    Indeed. Nationalism is in many ways a long haul endeavour, you can see the destination but the road is just so very long. I’m sure we will get there in the end, but the journey will take us many years yet.