#ae11 Reveal your Assembly predictions

Mick has noted two prediction competitions for the Assembly election but didn’t make a call for Slugger’s friends, contributors and readers to risk their credibility and reveal their predictions publicly in advance.

So folks lets be having you, your chance to be revealed as genius or the global village idiot….

Here are mine:

DUP 36
SF 30
UUP 16
SDLP 14
Alliance 7
Green 1
TUV 1
PBPA 1 – McCann
Purvis
McFarland

, , ,

  • nathansurgenor

    DUP 34, Sinn Féin 27, SDLP 18, UUP 16, Alliance 8, Ind 3, Green 1, TUV 1

  • Mark McGregor

    Nathan,

    Can you unpack the 3 Inds?

  • Drumlins Rock

    don’t quote me on it, but is that virtually no change? Switching McCann for Deeny and McClarty for Allister.

  • Greenflag

    DUP 36, SF 28, SDLP 18, UUP 15, AP 8, Green Party 1,
    Dawn Purvis 1 , Eamonn McCann 1.

    And that completes the voting of the ‘greenflag ‘ jury 😉

    A peaceful and incident free election to all candidates and voters .

  • DUP 35, SF 30, SDLP 15, UUP 14, AP 9, TUV 3, Others 2.

    TUV seats in N.Antrim, Lag Valley and E. Ldry.
    Others, McCann and McFarland

  • nathansurgenor

    Sorry, if you want more detail:

    DUP 34, Sinn Féin 27, SDLP 18, UUP 16, Alliance 8, Ind 3 (Purvis, McFarland, McClarty), Green 1, TUV 1

  • Mark McGregor

    Drumlins,

    Mine is

    DUP =
    SF +2
    UUP -2
    SDLP -2
    APNI =
    TUV +1
    Green =
    PUP -1
    PBPA +1
    Purvis/McFarland (Inds) +2
    Deeney – gone

  • Mr Crumlin

    DUP 36
    SF 29
    SDLP 16
    UUP 16
    APNI 7
    TUV 1
    Ind 3 (purvis/ mcfarland/ mcclarty)

  • Dewi

    DUP 34, SF 30, SDLP 17, UUP 15, APNI 8, TUV1, Dawn P 1, Ind (N Down) 2.

  • Mark McGregor

    It seems people generally think the only really interesting battle will be over if SF can get near the magically 30 that would permit a Petition of Concern – a veto over everything.

    All the other variations being suggested seem to have a minor impact on Ministerial picks, not the broader political balance of the Assembly?

  • Michael Shilliday

    I don’t buy the McFarland thing. McClarty has a better chance I reckon.

    The UUP possible or probable losses are to my mind (in no particular order):

    East Londonderry
    North Belfast
    North Down
    East Antrim

    My money is on John McCallister being safe. I also think that it would be a big ask for anyone else to take the UUP second in Upper Bann, I don’t see a second shinner happening, or Vance doing anything. Lagan Valley is a similar position where it will either be a DUP 4th or a UUP 2nd, and if they didn’t manage 4 with Donaldson, can they really do it without him?

    The UUP should pick up extra seats in West Tyrone, Strangford and South Antrim (in order). Whether they do or not is another matter, particularly in South Antrim. Half of an outside chance of Donaldson taking a seat in Dungannon if he’s very lucky.

    But for me, Elliott will win this election if the quality of the average UUP MLA rises even if the numbers fall. I guess on the particular facts of this election, on that basis, he can’t actually lose. Aside from the McClarty disgrace, and ditching Empey for no particular good reason, this election was won 6 months ago.

    That is barring a total disaster. So I guess we’ll have to see.

  • chewnicked

    DUP 36
    SINN FEIN 30
    SDLP 17
    UUP 11
    ALLIANCE 9
    TUV 2
    IND 2 ( MCCLARTY AND MCFARLAND)
    GREENS 1

  • The Word

    sdlp – 28 (before defections)
    dup – 20
    uup – 22
    all – 18
    sf – 13 (unlucky for some)
    green – 4
    purvis – 1
    pbp – 2 (got a £5 on a west belfast seat tonight at 66/1)

  • roadnottaken

    DUP 33
    SF 30
    UUP 17
    SDLP 14
    Alliance 8
    TUV 3 (Nth Antrim, Lagan Valley & East Derry)
    Green 1
    PUP 0
    Ind 2 (Purvis & McFarland)

    Just can’t see a UUP meltdown. And I’m surprised at the predictions for Eamonn McCann tbh… but Friday will tell!

  • john

    Lads your all wrong!! This is the winning entry

    DUP 35
    SF 27
    SDLP 19
    UUP 17
    ALL 8
    TUV 1
    McFarland 1

    The word I think you have been on the lash all day with those predictions

  • Mark McGregor

    I think from this we can all clearly see how useful a commentator on Slugger ‘The Word’ really is.

  • The Word

    Mark

    “useful” – no-one uses me, unlike Sinn Fein, you’ll see.

    I see I still make you nervous.

  • john

    UUP meltdown was always unlikely despite their own best efforts. Its the nature of the election interesting to note if there were only 5 seats/ constituency then UUP and SDLP would be in a spot of bother

  • Orchard_Unionist

    DUP 36 Sinn Fein 26 SDLP 18 UUP 15 GP 1 AP 8 IND 2 TUV 1 PBP 1

  • andnowwhat

    Does Mick Fealty have credit/debit card numbers?

    Maybe he could run a book.

    I’m not in to all this but I hope PBP get at least one seat. I can’t see much of a UUP backlash TBH.

  • A Pluralist Elitist

    DUP 34
    SF 29
    SDLP 16
    UUP 16
    Alliance 8
    TUV 1
    Green 1
    PBP 1
    Ind 2

  • Mark McGregor

    ‘The Word’,

    As you are noting a history on a predictions thread, I’ll note:

    Love is the answer

    Your SDLP prediction may be a tad imbalanced and irrational?

  • wiganpier

    DUP 33
    SF 27
    UUP 18
    SDLP 18
    ALL 8
    TUV 1
    GREEN 1
    IND 2 (Purvis & McFarland)

  • Michael Shilliday

    Predicting that every one of the SDLP candidates will be elected? What’s wrong with that Mark?! Be a lover not a hater man.

  • The Word

    Mark

    At this stage fishing is permitted if you have a question.

    I could refer you to the 1986 revelation that is the only constant that accurately defined “history” since. In other words, we’re ready now.

  • The Word

    “I am completely humbled by the experience of meeting Our Lady yet again, an experience I write about below. I understand that every sentence is meaningful in this cosmic interaction. The last time we met was on Apparition Hill in Medjugorje in August 2009 where a lady with six children, the number of child visionaries involved in the first encounter with Our Lady in June 1981, led me up and down the hill, meaning that she was with me during my whole journey through life.

    “I submit two testimonies of the encounter during the royal wedding last Friday, the first on the night of the encounter which proved too soon to completely evaluate the meaning, and the second completed on the night after the encounter to clarify the meaning of the message, a very comprehensive message. The second testimony comes first.”

  • jeep55

    DUP 34
    SF 27
    SDLP 17
    UUP 16
    AP 8
    TUV 2 (NA + EL)
    Greens 1
    PBP 1 (Foyle)
    Purvis 1
    McFarland 1

  • DUP 33
    SF 27
    UUP 22
    SDLP 15
    AP 7
    TUV 1 (Allister)
    IND 3 (Purvis, McClarty & McFarland)

  • South Down Stoop

    DUP – 32
    Sinn Féin – 28
    UUP – 16
    SDLP – 18
    Alliance – 8
    TUV – 3

    McClarty
    Purvis
    McFarland

  • Mark McGregor

    The Word,

    Apologies. Lets keep it on politics. The reasons behind your predictions are yours alone and need no further explanation.

    Good luck to you and yours tomorrow.

  • Backbencher

    DUP 34
    UUP 16
    TUV 2
    Ind (unionist) 2 Purvis and McFarland
    Total 54 Unionists

    SF 28
    SDLP 17
    Total 45 Nationalist

    All 7
    Greens 1
    Ind 1 (McCann)

    Total 9 Others

  • DUP 33
    SF 33
    UUP 15
    SDLP 13
    ALLIIA 08
    TUV 02
    PBP 01
    PURVIS 01
    McFARLAND 01
    PUP 01

  • Sam Maguire

    EB: 3 DUP 1 All 1 UUP 1 Ind (Purvis)
    WB: 5 SF 1 SDLP
    NB: 2 SF 2 DUP 1SDLP 1 UUP
    SB: 2 SDLP 1 SF 1 All 1 DUP 1 UUP
    EA: 3 DUP 1 UUP 1 All 1 SDLP
    NA: 3 DUP 1 UUP 1 SF 1 TUV
    SA: 2 DUP 2 UUP 1 All 1 SF
    ND: 2 DUP 1 UUP 1 All 1 Green 1 Ind (McFarland)
    SD: 2 SDLP 2 SF 1 DUP 1 UUP
    FST: 2 SF 2 UUP 1 DUP 1 SDLP
    Foyle: 2 SDLP 2 SF 1 DUP 1 PBP
    LV: 3 DUP 1 UUP 1 TUV 1 All
    ED: 2 DUP 1 UUP 1 SDLP 1 SF 1 Ind (McClarty)
    MU: 3 SF 1 SDLP 1 DUP 1 UUP
    N&A: 3 SF 1 SDLP 1 DUP 1 UUP
    Sford: 2 DUP 2 UUP 1 All 1 SDLP
    WT: 4SF 1 DUP 1 UUP
    UB: 2 DUP 2SF 1 UUP 1 SDLP

    31 DUP 29 SF 19 UUP 15 SDLP 7 All 1 Green 2 TUV 1 PBP 3 Ind U

  • Felt the login process was cumbersome Slugger. Your site is excellent so you need to make it accessible. Password lO46A9atvroger is hard to remember. Then you offer to allow my password I’ve had since 1999. Just allow passwords and it will not take 30 minutes to get involved in your election predictions. By the way I got 20 Fianna Fail TD’s in my last prediction. Like some jockey said it was better than sexual intercourse. Not because I got it right cos I’m always right. But because those who have destroyed Ireland as an economic and political entity were virtually destroyed themselves. The head of the snake was cut off by the Irish electorate, democracy.

  • Would love to join in but I’m just too tired – feel like I’ve failed Slugger in some way. There’s 84 assembly seats right?:)

  • Mark McGregor

    Tony,

    That Strategem prediction shit isn’t really Slugger, that’s Strategem trying to get a mutual teat sucking relationship with Mick going yet again

    Your prediction openly posted above has more value than anything hidden/controlled on a lobbyist company website -imnsho

  • ThomasMourne

    Surprise, surprise!
    Sectarianism to win again.
    So depressing.
    Wake me up in 2021

  • John Ó Néill

    Since it’s just for fun – I’m going to plump for a good day for Alliance and TUV (and thus a shakey one for the DUP and not much return for Ind Unionists). SF to gain a couple, SDLP to only lose out to McCann.

    31 DUP
    31 SF
    17 UUP
    15 SDLP
    9 All
    3 TUV
    1 Green
    1 PBP

  • FuturePhysicist

    32 DUP
    25 SINN FÉIN
    18 UUP
    18 SDLP
    7 APNI
    1 GREEN
    1 TUV
    1 INDEPENDENT (MCFARLAND)

  • FuturePhysicist

    Sorry my bad … 23 SDLP 😀

  • JH

    DUP 31
    SF 31
    SDLP 18
    UUP 14
    APNI 10
    TUV 2
    Ind 1
    GP 1

    Not likely tho 😛

  • Mick Fealty

    Gerry Moriarty:

    DUP 34; UUP 17; Sinn Féin 28; SDLP 17; Alliance 8; Traditional Unionist Voice 1; Greens 1; Independents 2.

    Mine are pretty close, but with DUP at 36, 2 independents (Jim and Dawn Purvis).

    I’m suggesting a gain in East Antrim to Sinn Fein (1 down in LV), 2 to UUs (Strangford and West Tyrone); Alliance to gain one in North Down.

    DUP down one in Strangford but up one in North Down.

    That said, there’s also something for SF in Upper Bann to play for, and West Tyrone.

    And we have to see what damage TUV can do the DUP and what bonus they deliver Tom Elliot for his tactical shift to the right.

    Can’t remember how I got SDLP to 17…

    Sitcking with what they’ve got would do some insiders…

  • Tochais Síoraí

    dup 34
    sf 29
    sdlp 18
    uup 15
    alliance 8
    gp 1
    tuv 1
    emc 1
    ind u 1

  • Dewi

    Mark – are you going to collate? ….just u should ask for in consistent format….

  • cynic49

    Expect a surprise result involving the Independent candidates in North Down. Remember you read it here first! It will throw a lot of the forecasts made so far.

  • gaygael

    DUP – 31
    SF – 27
    SDLP – 18
    UUP – 16
    APNI – 11
    TUV – 2
    GREEN – 1
    PBP – 1
    Indp – McFarlane & Purvis

    I’ve been reading and watching for a while and this is my first comment!

  • gaygael

    Previous post should read
    DUP – 30 not 31
    SF – 27
    SDLP – 17
    UUP – 16
    APNI – 11
    TUV – 2
    GREEN – 1
    PBP – 1
    Indp – McFarlane & Purvis

  • RyanAdams

    Am I the only one who can see DUP gains in Lagan Valley, North Down, South Antrim and N/S/W Belfast? I don’t expect all of these, but at least 3/6 with possible losses in East Belfast, Strangford and East Londonderry for DUP to remain stable?

  • Mick Fealty

    Ryan,

    I see N Down. But do the figures back you up on LV, SA and SB? NB is a possibility, it just means taking out Fred. The Alliance are actively gunning for that, but the number gaps were big last time.

    Don’t hear anyone in the DUP talking up WB.

  • Predictions closed in the assembly2011.co.uk competition and the final community predictions can be seen on the site now.

    With nearly 25,000 predictions I’m hoping the predictions will bear a lot of similarity to the actual outcome!

  • Sean Og

    Fullhouse has crashed.

  • Sean Og

    DUP – 37
    SF – 28
    SDLP – 18
    UUP – 15
    All – 6
    TUV – 2
    Ind – 2 (Purvis & McFarland)

    Not much change in the Assembly but the numbers around the Executive table will change.

  • separatesix

    Way off the mark!, TUV will gain a lot more than one seat that goes without saying.

  • separatesix

    TUV voters are very mobilised to vote in North Antrim, I’m convinced Audrey Patterson could take a seat too, depending on transfers.

  • Lionel Hutz

    DUP – 33
    SF – 28
    SDLP – 18
    UUP – 17
    Alliance – 7
    TUV – 2
    Green – 1
    Independents- 2

  • john

    2 tuv seats in North Antrim! – Were you drinking the same stuff as the word – can I have some.
    Just checked assembly2011 site – the leaderboard is up all we have to do is wait for the results.

  • Nordie Northsider

    May I ask Mark where he sees SF making gains?

  • SethS

    DUP 34
    SF 29
    UUP 15
    SDLP 16
    Alliance 9
    Green 1
    TUV 1
    McCann
    Purvis
    McFarland

  • Scáth Shéamais

    DUP – 33
    SF – 27
    SDLP – 17
    UUP – 18
    All – 6
    TUV – 3
    PBP – 1
    Ind – 3 (McClarty, Purvis, McFarland)

  • DUP 36
    SF 29
    UUP 15
    SDLP 15
    Alliance 8
    Green 1
    TUV 1
    PUP 1
    PBPA 1 – McCann
    McFarland

  • Cynic2

    DUP 40
    SF 32
    UUP 13
    SDLP 12
    Alliance 7
    Green 1
    TUV 0
    Purvis
    McFarland

  • Cynic2

    My forecast is that Tom Elliott isn’t his party’s leader by 12th July

  • john

    cynic 2 if your forecast is correct then Allister and Ritchie will also both be gone by 12th July

  • JR

    DUP- 33
    SF- 30
    UUP-16
    SDLP-17
    TUV-1
    ALL-9
    IND-2

    Cynic, are you a seat short?

  • gaygael

    DUP – 31
    SF – 27
    SDLP – 17
    UUP – 16
    APNI – 11
    TUV – 2
    GREEN – 1
    PBP – 1
    Indp – McFarlane & Purvis

    Sorry guys, few beers last night.
    These are my predictions.

  • separatesix

    Cynic2 I’ll never take your posts seriously again you predicted that the TUV will gain zero seats, I don’t think you even believe that, you ought to be certified you’re in denial.

  • Framer

    DUP – 38
    SF – 29
    SDLP – 17
    UUP – 14
    All – 8
    TUV – 1
    Ind – 1 (Purvis)

  • Mark McGregor

    Nordie,

    I decided that SF will have focused on the 3 seats to make the magic 30 (Petition of Concern):

    FST
    Upper Bann
    East Antrim

  • separatesix

    Framer are you for real? TUV 1 seat, you’re in for a surprise. For a long time some in NI have complained about Sinn Fein and the DUP;s domination of the Assembly, why then have they voted the same two parties in again it dosen’t make sense.

  • Red Rob

    TUV will pick up more than one seat but no chance of getting a second seat in North Antrim. The neighbouring seat of East Londonderry offers them their best chance after Allister and Boyd Douglas can take a seat.

    DUP 34
    SF 27
    UUP 18
    SDLP 17
    All 7
    TUV 2
    Green 1
    Ind 2

  • We’ll know soon enough, but here’s my punt…

    DUP – 36
    SF – 27
    SDLP – 18
    UUP – 16
    All – 7
    Green – 1
    TUV – 1
    Ind – 2 (Purvis and McFarland)

  • RyanAdams

    Mark I can’t see them getting East Antrim or FST. I would expect most of the SDLP voters in FST to return back to the fold this time anyway.

    In East Antrim, If the SDLP is eliminated first, I would say SF could expect less than half of the transfers.