After the PUP’s failure at the Stormont assembly elections Brain Ervine the leader of the PUP has announced that he is going to stand down. This will be the third leader the PUP has lost in little over two years. Dawn Purvis of course resigned over the murder of Bobby Moffett after having become a member about the time of the Loughinisland murders and remained a member and subsequently leader for some two dozen murders following the ceasefire. After Purvis’s …
It may be more two weeks now since Peter Robinson’s triumph at the polls but although time may make people more blazé about it that does not change the nature of his victory. I have frequently argued that Peter Robinson was a master tactician but not a brilliant strategist. However, the tactics have now become so good, so long term and so apparently successful that they have effectively become a strategy. The whole thing looked so unbelievably different a year …
As there aren’t a lot of actual figures out there, I’ve compared the EONI polled vote figures with the BBC valid votes to try and work out the invalid votes per constituency. (The BBC numbers may not be entirely accurate so this should be taken with a health warning – for example I’ve had to exclude Foyle as it was giving a totally improbable 0.05%). On face value this election seems to have resulted in considerably more spoilt votes than …
Time for a chart: Blank
As usual Nicholas Whyte provides the most comprehensive review of what actually happened when all the votes were counted. He has kindly given permission for Slugger to carry his thoughts. He also has brief comments on each individual constituency here. Everything below comes from Nicholas: Assembly results – my considered take #ae11 – Nicholas Whyte Twelve seats out of 108 changed hands in terms of party representation, which is actually the same number as in 2007, though the shifts were …
Another of the more commented on moments of the election spawned it’s own Twitter #, #basilsweemate, and even a spoof account (with some ripe language). Is that really a surprise…. hat tip Aldous for the link Blank
Throughout most of the election campaign there was a large billboard on the lower Newtownards Road with a picture of a young woman and the following quote “One year on still no one has delivered for working class unionism; that’s why I’m voting PUP.” As it turned out of course relatively few working class unionists seem to have decided to vote PUP and few unionists of whatever class voted for the PUP’s prodigal former leader Dawn Purvis. The fundamental conceit …
Two years ago Jim Allister scored one of the most stunningly successful defeats of recent Northern Ireland political history: he may have been defeated but his success and share of the vote sent shock waves through Northern Ireland politics. Today the same Jim Allister scored a fairly pyrrhic victory being elected on the final count in North Antrim. The TUV’s share of the vote was approximately what had been predicted (and what a number of us personally suspected – without …
Mick has noted two prediction competitions for the Assembly election but didn’t make a call for Slugger’s friends, contributors and readers to risk their credibility and reveal their predictions publicly in advance. So folks lets be having you, your chance to be revealed as genius or the global village idiot…. Here are mine: DUP 36 SF 30 UUP 16 SDLP 14 Alliance 7 Green 1 TUV 1 PBPA 1 – McCann Purvis McFarland Blank
Great to see some politicos working outside comfort zones in their chase for votes. In the last day we’ve had Niall Ó Donnghaile out in Castlereagh helping his SF colleagues hunt those final ticks, Conall and the SDLP trying their luck in Belvoir and Mark Finlay and the UUP giving the Markets and Lower Ormeau a punt. So who else has been working an area not know for easy votes? (I’m still waiting 4 years for the APNI to canvass …
It’s been something of a breakneck week, and I’m pretty much signed off for the weekend. As it happens, I had an analysis piece in the Daily Mirror at the beginning of the week… In it I argue that the council elections will probably be a more reliable indicator of party fortunes than the trench warfare of the Assembly elections… The council results will also tell us something about the ongoing health of the parties. All face the problem of …
During the final months of the last Assembly there was a steady stream of co-options as MLAs stood down and allowed potential successors to raise their profile. A similar situation was taking place at council level. It now seems extremely likely we will have a raft of co-options at Council level from the DUP at least immediately after the elections. They uniquely have stacked their Assembly slate with candidates also seeking election to Councils. 64% of their Assembly candidates are …
…When Chekhov saw the long winter, it was a winter bleak and dark and bereft of hope; and yet, we know winter’s only one more step in the cycle. Before Mick loses interest – I think this is one to watch for the upcoming Assembly election (or #ae11 as you will come to know it). If you take the trajectory of Eamonn McCann’s vote in Foyle (I’m guessing #fyle) over the last three elections, it has risen from 3.6% (2005) to 5% (2007) to …
West Tyrone’s independent MLA Dr Kieran Deeny may have decided to step down from the Assembly, but I can reveal that there will be at least one independent candidate standing in the constituency. Speaking to Omagh District Councillor McGowan on Wednesday afternoon for a story that ran in today’s Ulster Herald, he confirmed that he will “definitely” run for the Assembly. A well known public figure in the Omagh District, McGowan has sat on Omagh District Council since 1985 and …
In a conversation with independent West Tyrone MLA Kieran Deeny this week, he revealed that he has been approached by a number of people from various constituencies considering running for next year’s Assembly elections under the independent banner. First approached six months ago, he confirmed that he has already held talks with a number of these people in previous weeks and was set to meet two more this week. None are sitting MLAs, but from what I could gather most …
