Ok, put your cards on the table

A few weeks ago Paul opened up a blog on election predictions. Now, a bit older and wiser, its time for everyone to put their cards on the table and, rather than risk money, to stake their invaluable credibility as pundits on predicting the outcomes of the election.

I’m going to qualify mine by pointing to a few things:

  • The last polls tend to over emphasise support for the lead party, in this case Fine Gael, but their lead is over the second placed party is going to be very big and they may get a seat bonus regardless.
  • Fianna Fáil and Labour have both candidate strategies that may shake out badly for both since they were predicated upon polling up to 10% higher than the last opinion polls suggest they might do.
  • The Independents might take 14-18% of the first preference vote, but that is unlikely to translate directly to seats.
  • This time out we will see many more Fianna Fáil candidates eliminated than ever before – a bit like an elephants graveyard – no-one really knows where their transfers will go.
  • Sinn Féin candidates may attract more transfers than before, and may be coupled with Fianna Fáil attaining pariah status and receiving relatively few.
  • The result for both Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil is going to be wildly unpredictable – Sinn Féin could come back with 10 or 25, Fianna Fáil could return with 14 or 36.

So, my prediction is: Fine Gael: 77 and short of that majority; Labour: 38, a historic day if they don’t talk it down themselves; to be controversial and on balance of the reasons above, I’m going to call it Sinn Féin 21 and Fianna Fáil 19 (plus the returning CC giving them 20); Greens – zero; Independents – 10.

And keep an eye out for Mick during the day as he barrels around the potholes of the midlands spreading tweets over various constituencies…

[To simplify the conversation – I’ve closed the comments part to try and keep all the #GE11 predictions on Pauls thread here]

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9 thoughts on “Ok, put your cards on the table”

  1. I think you’re near the mark on Labour, too high on SF – around 15 might be closer, I think FF will get into the 20s (but I hope you’re right). Greens 2 (making a bit of a comeback Sargent & Ryan may hang on, well hopefully they were a nice 13/8 to keep one or more the other day, down to evens yesterday), Independents over 15. FG nearer 70 than 80.

    I also predict that I might be completely wrong.

  2. TS – chances of me being wrong are pretty strong. I’m guessing that SFs more conservative candidate strategy might actually pay off in this case since the fpv is going to be widely fragmented for both FF and Lab, but we’ll only be sure on Saturday.

  3. Originally I had:
    FF: 23 (+1 CC) FG: 65 LAB: 43 SF: 14 OTHER: 20

    If I was to rerun it I’d take five from Labour and add them to FG but I’ll stick with the original.

    Also, my ‘other’ would be split: Green 0, ULA 5, Ind 15

  4. Just for the heck of it……..
    Fine Gael….72
    Labour …….36
    Green………..1 (but I hope not!)

  5. I’m using my secret statistical method, where I find that the consensus of previous predictions tends to underestimate how much movement there will actually be, and therefore predicting:

    FF 21
    FG 78
    Lab 36
    SF 13
    Oth 17
    (and Ceann Comhairle 1)

  6. FG ….. 64
    FF ….. 30
    Lab … 41
    SF ….. 14
    Gre …. 0
    Oth …. 16

    My original and i’ll stick with it… there were no earthquakes in this election so the undecided voters will still decide it.
    I believe there will be sufficent dithering of the electorate between alternative candidates to see FF hold 30 seats (betcha Martins hopes i’m 100% right)

    Irish Times quotes fom Micky Martin on monday morning ” ah sure boyo we knew we were fucked good and proper like when that bollix oracle said we’d hold 30″

    The shinners did nothing to enhance their party in this PERFECT STORM and as a result will return less than 20 a woeful return considering bordering on disgraceful.

    Greens goodbye and good riddence

  7. My original prediction was

    Fianna Fáil 40
    Fine Gael 65
    Green Party – Comhaontas Glas 2
    Sinn Féin 10
    Socialist Party 1
    The Labour Party 37
    Others / Independents 10

    but in line with Mark I’ll now go for

    Fianna Fáil 30
    Fine Gael 75
    Green Party – Comhaontas Glas 2
    Sinn Féin 10
    Socialist Party 1
    The Labour Party 37
    Others / Independents 10

  8. FG 77
    FF 19
    LAB 38
    GREEN 1
    SF 18
    IND 13

    But lets be honest – it does not really matter who is nominally in charge with the IMF deal already in the bag – what was potentially the most interesting election in years is probably now probably the least interesting.

    We all know FF are gone and will be replaced with FG.

    …cant really see any change on Monday morning.

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