Election day open thread #ge11

The big day is here. Mick’s in Cavan at the moment (more on that soon) and will be in Roscommon & Kilkenny later – go along if you can.

Update: We’ve added a ‘CoverItLive’ window in this post (thanks Mark McG!) – it’ll probably be fairly quiet until tomorrow but worth checking back to see if you’re not a regular Twitter user:

John has just posted on his expectations and is asking you to put your cards on the table about what you think for today’s result.

So what can we expect? PoliticalReform.ie has been filleting recent polls and has detailed projections (at seat-level) based upon them (read the whole thing here).

Firstly, based on the Millward Brown Lansdowne opinion poll, published in the 23rd February edition of The Irish Independent – seat projections:

Fianna Fail 17, Fine Gael 78, Labour 37, Green Party 0, Sinn Fein 14, Others 20

… and secondly, on the Red C poll for Paddy Power (23rd February)

Fianna Fail 21, Fine Gael 80, Labour 34, Green Party 0, Sinn Fein 13, Others 18

Barry Orr from Betfairs has …er… his boss’s money on…

Fianna Fail 25, Fine Gael 73, Labour 36, Green Party 1 Sinn Fein 13, Others 17

… and you can see their markets here.

Early on during the campaign, around 40 of Slugger’s readers collectively predicted…

Fianna Fail 36, Fine Gael 64, Labour 36, Sinn Fein 13, Others – total – 18

Let me know if there are any good polling/projection information anywhere else in the comments below, and if you’re qualified to vote and haven’t made your mind up, the Votomatic site might help there. I’ve been tracking Betfair this time, but I’d be interested to see what the other bookies have to say.

So, have another go yourself. If you’re made a prediction already have another one using the form below. Today’s entries won’t qualify for the £125 Betfair credit, but it’d be interesting to see who gets closest – Slugger today, Slugger pre-Feb 10th, Betfair or the pollsters.

Election day prediction competition

Only a bit of fun this time – and remember, if your predicted seat distribution doesn’t add up to 165, it will be automatically disqualified, so work it out with a scratchpad first. By all means, feel free to copy your prediction into the comments box below as well!

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  • Rory Carr

    Not everyone it seems has taken care to ensure that their totals add up to 165. In the above predictions only Barry Orr gets it right.
    Both Millward Brown Lansdowne and Red C for Paddy Power have totals of 166 while Slugger’s readers have plumped for 167 (maybe in the belief that Gerry counts as three – which wouldn’t surprise me at all given the amount of attention devoted to him here).

  • Mark McGregor

    Rory,

    They must be including Ceann Comhairle whereas Paul asked us to exclude that. similarly they got to predict the Greens where Slugger asked us to lump that in with Inds and ULA. I’d also guess that rounding fecked up Pauls Slugger composite.

    btw my prediction made before the final polling surge for FG and drift from Labour was:

    FF: 23

    FG: 65

    LAB: 43

    SF: 14

    OTHER: 20

    If I was to rerun it today I’d probably take five off Lab and give them to FG but that’s not what I entered.

  • I’m using my secret statistical method, where I find that the consensus of previous predictions tends to underestimate how much movement there will actually be, and therefore predicting:

    FF 21
    FG 78
    Lab 36
    SF 13
    Oth 17
    (and Ceann Comhairle 1)

  • Rory,

    I think there are two possible reasons for this. It’s either a cock-up on their part, or – more likely – that they’ve counting the one ‘uncontested’ seat as ‘incumbent wins’. And I’m so ignorant of Irish politics, I don’t even know who the speaker is or what party s/he represents.

    In the Westminster elections, John Bercow stood as an Independent (and by convention, he was unchallenged by the main parties) so maybe the speaker is one of their projected ‘independents’?

    Happy to be corrected on any of this.

    *Update* Seems Mark has the correct answer posted at roughly the same time as me – above

  • SethS

    I am still struggling to believe FF will get fewer that 30 seats and that Labour will get more than 40. If both come true we’ll have a FG majority government – even more unbeleivable!

    Previously I predicted

    Fianna Fáil 40
    Fine Gael 65
    Green Party – Comhaontas Glas 2
    Sinn Féin 10
    Socialist Party 1
    The Labour Party 37
    Others / Independents 10

    Though that seems a little far fetched now. That said I’m hoping Nicholas is closer to the mark that me.

  • PaulT

    Having read Slugger as my only point of information on the Irish election I’m stunned that people are predicting 10-14 seats for Sinn Fein.

    I’m confident on the impartial information fed to me by Mick and Pete that SF will be wiped out and indeed I am sure that all of their members are currently being pelted with rotten veg as Special Branch lead them away to start live sentences for murder and smuggling.

    Then again, maybe only mugs believe the rubbish allowed on Slugger and SF will get 10 seats

  • Greenflag

    I got a quick glimpse just before my crystal ball again fogged up. So confident am I of this projection that I would be loath to stake a fiver at odds of a 100/1 .

    REMEMBER for last minute decision makers

    All Irish and British citizens over the age of 18 who are on the electoral register are entitled to vote, even if they did not receive a polling card.

    I’m guessing this should be close to the result . When I look at it it somehow still seems unbelievable 😉 I may have overed on the Independents and undered a bit on SF and maybe undered by one on FG . FF is truly the wildest card . If enough traditional FF voters stay at home then going below 20 is possible . And where will the eliminated FF transfers go ?

    Fianna Fail 24
    Fine Gael 78
    Labour 30
    Sinn Fein 15
    Independents 17
    Green Party 2

  • tuatha

    Being abroad, & thus disenfranchised, I can only hope that the double figures for SF are correct. An added bonus would be that the Bearded Bugger ain’t one of them.

  • Frame

    Deduct 20% from all committed or sympathetic bloggers’s parties depending on their sympathy.

    In the case of SF sympathisers, deduct 30%.

  • PaulT you must have missed a fair amount of positive coverage that SF have had on Slugger from John O’Neill and Chris Donnelly among others. Is this some kind of cultivated victimhood here?

    Interestingly, other Slugger readers haven’t been as misled as you pretend to be – their predictions (40 of them) are quite in line with what pollsters are expecting.

  • Greenflag

    Bloomberg’s foregone conclusion -just to keep everybody on the edge of their seats and particularly those TD’s who are representing the former ruling party .

    Dick ‘ Cock ‘ Roche in Wickla will sweat this week end . His European profile as Minister will not do him any favours this time .

    http://www.bloomberg.com/video/67051514/

  • Just to throw in my tuppence worth, I’d be surprised if the FF crash and the FG surge aren’t both over-estimated in these late polls. And anyway, these multi-seat constituencies are incredibly hard to predict when the traditional voting patterns are so out of kilter with the current voter mood.

    But then again, what do I know? So I can face public humiliation for my ignorance once the count is in, here’s my Slugger prediction (as best I recall) from a few weeks back:

    FG – 67
    Lab – 38
    FF – 33
    SF – 12
    Oth – 15

  • John Ó Néill

    Worth considering here – there are 233 independents standing. A constituency by constituency review would only give 8 to 12 a realistic shout of taking a seat – hence I think 10 may be about right (I can’t see 15 you could make a real case for, never mind 20). A lot will take disaffected votes from FF but may not transfer back – with split FF votes due to their multi-candidate strategies – I could see them going through the floor on seats.

  • fitzjameshorse1745

    FG 72
    Labour 36
    FF 25 (another thread I declare 26 but this count must be 165 so I have not included an Ceann Comhairle)
    SF 15
    Others (including 1 Green) 17

  • PaulT

    Paul
    “PaulT you must have missed a fair amount of positive coverage that SF have had on Slugger from John O’Neill and Chris Donnelly among others. Is this some kind of cultivated victimhood here?”

    No victimhood, I referred one post that stated that SF will most likely use election fraud to win a seat in Louth, and use bullyboy tactics to retain a seat in WB, that post was passed by the Mod, can’t wait for the resident hack to break those stories!

    Don’t suppose you fancy pointing out the negative blogging on the other parties in the election?

    Poor response from Slugger, however I look forward to the extensive coverage due after the results.

    ‘Meltdown for Sinn Fein’ anyone

  • fitzjameshorse1745

    I suspect keyboards are being sharpened already.
    Anything less than 163 seats for Sinn Féin will be heralded as a disaster.
    But rather like the boy who cried “wolf”, repetition devalues rather than enhances.
    C’est la vie…as they say.

  • fitzjameshorse1745

    John O’Neill,
    I take your point re Independents but effectvely on this thread “Independents” means “Others”. Theres no prediction box for Green, ULA or Socialist, not to mention disaffected and deselected candidates (Labour & FF).
    I put in my own totals before Id finished my own constituency break down. I have not added up the constituency figures in part because its bound to be different from the overview (gut feeling)……..but also because my knowledge of 40 odd places is “patchy”.

    Curiousities abound (not to mention ill fitting hairpieces) such as the sheer number of candidates fighting for so few seats……and conversely so few (say nine) fighting in some places where three seats are available. Countless back doors appear open.
    Independents/Others are a mixed bag of complete no hopers and odd if in some cases electable lefties (PBP/ULA/Socialist and Stickies) and those Independents with a real profile (eg Shane Ross).
    But theres either a new reality in FF circles or just too few candidates. And curiously an over-supply of FG candidates who when the profiles are read look over promoted if photogenic.

    On Monay those elected will be the Good, the Bad and the very very Lucky (who seem to have a perfect storm)

  • perseus

    turnout figures?

  • John Ó Néill

    FJH – I was grouping them together as the polls didn’t include ULA etc as separate options – making their status hard to determine. Across all the constituencies – a few in this category look safe like Lowry or Joe Higgins, but when you look at it in detail it is hard to make a case for 17 or 18 as per some of the predictions.

  • Scáth Shéamais

    FG 76
    FF 26
    LP 37
    GP 1
    SF 11
    Oth 14

  • PaulT,

    “Poor response from Slugger”

    You seem to be making a bit of a common error. Slugger doesn’t have an editorial line. Everyone has a few of the regular posters who routinely annoy them – so what?

    Comments don’t get ‘passed by the mod’ – there’s a ‘flag as offensive’ button if you want to use it and you have the option to rebut anything that appears on a comment thread. I’d find a short article about how post-moderated group blogs work if I were you.

    SF is a party that’s strong in the north – where most of the readers are from. It’s got plenty of detractors there so of course there’s a lot of beefing about them. So what?

  • Greenflag

    Turnout looks higher than 2007. So if many FF voters are staying at home then where are these extra votes coming from ? I guess we’ll know tomorrow but SF will probably benefit if those votes are from the under 35’s .

  • skibbereen eagle

    Exit polls Morning Ireland RTE Radio 1 8 am tomorrow.

  • Greenflag

    For any site visitors who are perplexed about how the votes are counted under our PR system here’s Professor Richard Sinnottof UCD doing the needful .

    British subjects and others are warned that as well addition subtraction and division some knowledge of proportionality on the math side would be help 😉

    http://www.rte.ie/news/election2011/prstvguide.html

    Fitzjameshorse has predicted ‘fisticuffs’ at some of the counting centres tomorrow so those going into highly contested 4th and 5th seat counts may need to be prepared . Baseball bats and hurley sticks will not be allowed nor swords , pistols or machine guns .Fisticuffs and/or a digging match only as Ronnie Drew once lamented in an oul Dublin Street ballad from less ‘violent ‘ times

  • roadnottaken

    FF: 18
    FG: 75
    Lab: 38
    SF: 14
    Oth: 20
    + Ceann Comhairle

  • Mark McGregor

    Newstalk are hoping to have an exit poll after 10pm:

    http://www.newstalk.ie/

  • fitzjameshorse1745

    Did I actually predict fisticuffs?
    I usually qualify everything I say …..but yes I think all the ingredients are there.
    Fine Gael will be crazed with victory especially as they get closer to unfettered power. There will be a lot of goading and gloating at FF defeats…..and I suspect some of the gombeen men wont take it so well. Especially as the evening wears on.
    This election is more than a swing of the pendulum. The chances are that Irish politics will never be the same again. Probably a good thing….but Irish society will never be the same again either.

    Labour are pinning their hopes on being a very junior partner acting as a break on the crazier element of red clawed Blueshirtism.
    But Labour will be big losers…”Gilmore for Taoiseach” behave yourselves.
    Gilmore blew it big time.
    Labours post mortem will be interesting and some Labour folks who arent big fans of the former Workers Party, former Democratic left leader will want blood on the carpet.

    A few left wing nutters might get elected alongside right wing nutters …
    So people (maybe O’Dea….maybe O’Rourke….maybe O’Donoghue ….maybe Roche) have fought their last election. They may bow out gracefully or disgracefully…..lashing out at the Media. Lets not forget that some of these younger tally people will be the internet generation. They lack civilised manners so it could “kick off”.

    But in generational terms we have seen the last of a lot of people (including of course Cowen) who are maybe third generation FF people. The party no longer wants them either. They pulled their last strokes on their own core support.

  • Mark McGregor

    FJH,

    I don’t see how swapping FG for FF changes Irish politics. It just swaps one centre-right populist party for another and gives a pause while the unscrupulous rich switch backing to the newly empowered gombeens.

    There is no change in political ideolgy about to happen, business as usual come the middle of next week, albiet with the civil war now totally removed from the equation 90 years on.

  • Mark McGregor

    I loved this comment on Twitter:

    Voter turnout described as “Brisk” in Donegal SW, “Manic” in Dun Laoghaire, “Steady” in Louth & “Pretentious” in Dub SE.

  • fitzjameshorse1745

    Well removing the civil war from politics is a change.
    There will be no more “its yoyr turn”…FF are probably crushed for ever although that was said also about Canadian Conservatives).
    The difference between FG and FF is that the former are mostly dishonest but further to the right than FF.
    FF are mostly honest but more centist (ie in relation to the nature of the State).
    But the biggest question mark hangs over Labour.
    FG will do the post election thing and say “folks we looked at the books and its even worse than we thought”.
    Does Labour tag along as a break on excesses or allow a FG govt in a minority to stumble along until there is a time thats ripe to chuck them out.

  • fitzjameshorse1745

    oops that should read “FF mostly dishonest”

  • ORWELLSPEN

    FF 15
    FG 80
    LAB 32
    SF 20
    GREEN 1
    ULA 8
    INDIES 9

  • Mark McGregor

    Turns out the Newstalk ‘exit’ poll was utter bullshit. They ran with an online poll of ‘exiles’ from some stupid low traffic website. It was utterly pointless and a poor introduction to their coverage – I’ll not be counting on them for much tomorrow after that crap.

  • Mark McGregor

    I have no idea why Mick hasn’t linked it

    http://audioboo.fm/RTE_Elections

    All this hard work and the content is about to become digital fishwrapper – madness that so much effort went into capturing comment next to nobody will ever listen to!

    This should have been uploaded and linked throughout the day. Turned out as an exercise of utter pointlessness.

  • Reader

    fitzjameshorse1745 : British subjects and others are warned that as well addition subtraction and division some knowledge of proportionality on the math side would be help
    Because of the different STV counting systems, Nordies will already know all of the above *and* fractions.

  • PaulT

    Paul you might fine it more useful to decide on one arguement instead of flip-flopping, there are some great articles on the web for learning how to blog, you might want to google them, you might really find them informative

  • Mack

    Twitter feed here –

    http://www.fairocracy.com/general_election_2011/ge11_hashtag_on_twitter.html

    RTE Elections reporting Shane Ross looks like topping poll in Dublin South

    http://twitter.com/RTEdublinSOUTH

    Some guy tweets Louth Tally so far –

    Adams 546 breathnach 142 Carroll 231 Clare 55 Deary 79 fitzpeter 249 Nash 644 Odowd 644

  • Greenflag

    It’s looking like ‘death’ for FF in Dublin as in political extermination. First Connaught Taoiseach’s party polling 65% in Mayo -incredible ‘local’ politics and Gerry Adams a poll topper in Louth with Shane Ross doing ditto in Dublin South .
    Thanks for the live ‘Twitter’ above .

    Quote of the day so far

    ‘If you threw wet clothes into Eamon de Valera’s grave, they’d be dry in about eight seconds…”

  • ItwasSammyMcNally

    “If you threw wet clothes into Eamon de Valera’s grave, they’d be dry in about eight seconds…”

    cracker

  • Mack

    Greenflag, Fergus O’Dowd topping Louth so far. 500 or so between last I heard..

  • Greenflag

    1 FF TD in Dublin -Brian Lenihan and he’ll scrape into the last seat in his constituency.

    Night of the Longknives for FF .

  • Greenflag

    Saw that still a huge win for Gerry Adams

    I see somebody twitted

    ‘this election result is like telling somebody who has been fully cured from cancer that they now have incurable syphilis’

    Dublin North West once an FF 2 FG 1 three seater now won’t have either . It looks like Labour 2 SF 1 with SF poll topping .

    Ireland’s first all ‘red ‘ (with a touch of green ) .
    Hanafin and Andrews get the chop . Sorry for Andrews and Carey FF – Mary Lou will make it

  • Greenflag

    wrong call there in Dublin . Labour’s Shortall will top poll with SF,s Ellis taking second seat and Labour’s Lyons taking third seat.

    Conor Lenihan gone .Crowe for SF wins seat.

    Amazing results – dare I say GUBU – No Haughey in the Dail

  • ItwasSammyMcNally

    “Amazing results”

    Not given the that we have known for months.

    FF out FG in.

    FG have done and needed to do next to nothing to get in – just been a centre-right party in the right place at the right time.

  • Greenflag

    Wallace (Independent) tops poll in Wexford .The banks won’t like that -he says he owes them 40 million euros and they can **** off or words to that effect;)

  • wee buns

    Coughlan in trouble; might need to consider an alternative career..

  • Greenflag

    Not quite Sammy -FG may be in but for how long ?
    The extent of the FF near extermination in Dublin is not something that was expected . FF transfers on eliminations may decide whether an FG /Ind or FG/Lab coalition.

  • ItwasSammyMcNally

    Greenflag,

    Dont want to split hairs(belonging to a near bald man), but I’m personally not suprised about FF in Dublin – it seems they have run 2 candidates in constiuencies where there were indications they should only run 1 and may end up with 0. They may end up with 2 in Dublin – but looks like 1.

    I cant see why FG will not stay in power for the duration – Labour if unhappy will not cut and run but will hold out and hope for improvment – thats what poltiicans always do.

  • ItwasSammyMcNally

    Greenflag,

    “FF transfers on eliminations may decide whether an FG /Ind or FG/Lab coalition.”

    Paddy Power: 1/33 for FG/Lab, 10/1 FG and others.

  • Greenflag

    Pringle looks like joining Doherty in Donegal . In fact SF are looking as if they’ll more than double their ‘representation and with Labour getting close to 40 there will be a significant left presence . FF may not survive this election being forced into absortbion with FG at least some of them -Conor Lenihan trying to put a brave face on it.

    FF transfers will determine the last seats in many constituencies with the bias going to the broad left instead of FG.

  • Greenflag

    Paddy Power’s 10/1 FG and others – the others could of course include the FF rump . FG might find it easier to ‘deal’ with the rump than with Labour . The ‘independents ‘ may all be too independent to ‘corral’ into a stable coalition.

  • Rory Carr

    I see that Shane Ross’s Wikipedia entry has already been updated to include his election to the Dáil today. Is this some sort of record?

  • Valenciano

    @Rory, not even close or unusual in any way. Wikipedia elections articles are usually updated within minutes of the result being declared and any new TDs elected today will have new articles created by tomorrow evening at the latest.

  • Valenciano

    I’ve an interest in Sligo/N Leitrim, a 3 seater. Anyone want to call this based on the following tallies?

    FG Perry 8611 (19.7%)
    FG McLoughlin 7559 (17.3%)
    SF Colreavy 5794 (13.2%)
    FF Scanlon 5056 (11.5%)
    FF MacSharry M 4506 (10.3%)
    LAB O’Keeffe 4448 (10.1%)
    IND Clarke 2404 (5.5%)
    IND Bree 2210 (5%)
    IND Cawley 1077 (2.4%)
    IND Love 762 (1.7%)
    IND McSharry G 741 (1.6%)
    GP Gogan 416 (0%)
    IND Cahill 103 (0%)

  • ItwasSammyMcNally

    I’ve an interest in Sligo/N Leitrim, a 3 seater. Anyone want to call this based on the following tallies?

    How much?