Hung Parliament: Do the math…
No white smoke yet from the Conservative and Lib Dem teams trying to negotiate an agreed pact. If they fail to reach an understanding, it could be the Labour party’s turn to dance with the Lib Dems. As the BBC’s Stephen Walker points out, even with Sinn Féin’s vacant seats taken into account, the election results show those two parties would still fall short of the required 323 seats. By just 8 votes… From Stephen Walker’s article
The SDLP traditionally takes the Labour whip and their three MPs – Mark Durkan, Margaret Ritchie and Alasdair McDonnell – would back a Labour administration.
The new East Belfast MP Naomi Long would most likely support her colleagues in the Liberal Democrats, which is a sister party to Alliance.
Lady Sylvia Hermon is another MP who would most likely support a non-Tory administration.
Her opposition to the Conservatives is well documented and resulted in her resignation from the Ulster Unionist Party.
Now sitting as an independent MP she is on record as saying she would vote against David Cameron as prime minister.
So Northern Ireland could initially deliver 5 votes for a Lib-Lab administration.
That figure could grow to 13 if the DUP came on board. However all local MPs would seek guarantees about Northern Ireland’s block grant and over other economic matters.
It’s not as unlikely as it might seem. After all, the DUP has voted with a recent Labour government in key votes before. And not just once.
So whilst, as Brian noted, it might seem that the NI parties would sit in rival power blocs, it ain’t necessarily so.
Whatever happens, an abstentionist Sinn Féin have nothing to talk to anyone about.
Tend to agree that” What we have witnessed in this election is the probable end of Unionist power broking” Thought it interesting another thread seemed to suggest DUP voting suggested a trend towards NI independence, but may not be recalling content exactly. Anyway, according to these reports Scotland seems to be the (un)sticking point.
1)Tim Luckhurst: The English question is still unanswered
The largest country in the union risks being dictated to by Scotland and Wales. The resulting resentment could break up the UK
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/tim-luckhurst-the-english-question-is-still-unanswered-1969247.html
2) Cut Scotland loose – then we’ll have a fair voting system
Minette Marrin
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/minette_marrin/article7120643.ece
3) Labour’s success in Scotland reveals Britain’s stark political divide, says Alan Cochrane
“the question must now arise as to whether David Cameron, even if he does manage to form a government, can claim a mandate to run Scotland after such an abject failure by his party”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/election-2010/7690797/General-Election-2010-Scotland-maintains-its-love-affair-with-Labour.html
There is no question of whether Naomi Long attaches herself to the LibDems, They are Alliance’s sister party. She will stick to them and sit with them as closely as is conceivable, probably taking the whip. She would be daft not to seek it otherwise she will be flotsam like Lady Hermon.
Long is also a party person working her way up through the council and Stormont, and not a personality.
Her only problem might be propping up a Conservative government and becoming an indirect UCUNF MP, but that’s politics.
I thought Lady H was expected to take the labour whip? In the current parliament the last thing she will be is flotsam.
What math?
Only 39.6% of English voters voted tories so your West Lothian point doesn’t bear scrutiny. A LibLab coalition would have the support of 52.1% of the English electorate.
You are right re Salmond & Labour will do no deal for local reasons but for similar reasons the SNP will not back the tories either – ‘tartan tories’ jobe took many years to fade
anne,
if there were PR in Scotland the Tories with 16% of the vote could-perhaps-maybe get about 10 seats.
No she has never said she will take the discipline of a whip. She is a unionist after all and from North Down.
[...] the opportunity arise, the 13 NI MPs who take their seats should be prepared to work together on any potential negotiations over support for the next government.As I said, whatever happens, an abstentionist Sinn Féin have [...]
[...] an important role to play. BBC report here And the Guardian is live-blogging events. Adds Do the math… Tags: Election 2010, Gordon Brown, Government, Labour Party, Liberal Democrats, Parties, Society, [...]
That’s probably about right . But in England instead of 297 they would have gotten about 215 .In total under STV the result for Britain would have been Conservatives 232 , Labour 190 , Liberal Dems 147 , Scots Nationalists 12 , Plaid 4 , Unionists 9 and SDLP 3 with Alliance 1 .
In terms of the present ‘haggling /negotiation ‘ it would be the same two choices i.e Tory /Liberal v Progressive Alliance .
Can’t see the UK going for multi seat constituencies . The Tories really need the FPTP system if they hope ever again to form a single party government . Perhaps they need to get with the new order before the new order leaves without them ?
“becoming an indirect UCUNF MP”
Eh no, that would be as a UCAF(Ulster Conservatvie Alliance Front) MP.
[...] Baker,Tue 11 May 2010, 12:28pm0With an abstentionist Sinn Féin irrelevant to the number crunching at Westminster it’s interesting to see Gearóid Ó Cairealláin, in the North Belfast News, musing aloud [...]
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