Focusing on the bigger picture is how to prevent a Brexit disaster

The Sun and the Guardian, raucous tabloid and campaigning broadsheet  on either side of the Brexit trauma are united: Barnier has killed off the Chequers plan. The FT however is more circumspect. We have doubts it can be done without putting at risk the integrity of the customs union, our common commercial policy, regulatory policy and fiscal revenue,” said Mr Barnier. Mr Barnier and Mr Raab also said they had agreed to work on a model for financial services co-operation …

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Lack of understanding of how to reach agreement across communities is dangerous…

In Ireland (north and south), Summer is the time for thinking and rethinking politics. For the most part, I will be reading a number of review copies of books I’ve been sent over the last month or so. One I don’t yet have is Mary C Murphy’s Europe and Northern Ireland’s Future (Comparative Political Economy), which Micheal Martin officially launched last night in Dublin. But it worth highlighting a couple of points he made in his speech, some of which builds …

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Never mind the wrangling. What can the Intergovernmental Conference achieve?

We’ve  never been that great about commenting on economics and finance have we? Unless they’re fodder for the same old, same old wrangle  or we’re demanding more, more money from the Brits who never give us what we really deserve.  We get far more craic (crack, old spelling) out of the antics of Paisley junior, the very epitome of a farcical son of a overwhelming father who also  thought some rules weren’t made for him.  No prizes for guessing that …

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Ireland, Northern Ireland and Brexit: two southern political perspectives from #MacGill18…

It’s worth drawing out some of the material from Glenties the other night. On the night, the intellectual heavy lifting was done by Micheal Martin, who as leader of the opposition: one, has time to think; and two is not hemmed in by reality. However, the Tanaiste and Foreign Minister Simon Coveney did make several important observations: …to some degree, on the Irish issues at least, it ground to a halt in March. The UK then turned its focus to the …

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The nightmare scenario

Both the British and Irish Governments have this week warned their people of the dangers (however seemingly remote) of a no-deal Brexit. No doubt there have been junior staff on both sides beavering away in basements to plan for the possibility, whether or not their superiors took them seriously. And the probability of those contingency plans being dusted off has surely increased in the last few days. But we must also entertain the even smaller chance of a perfect storm, …

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On the backstop, Theresa May’s “passion” for solutions and a bit more clarity seems to be paying off

Theresa May and Michel Barnier have spoken. Barnier has picked his way critically through the UK White Paper with its “facilitated customs arrangement” and common rule book, asking all the pertinent questions but turning nothing down.  80% of the UK’s withdrawal from the EU is now agreed, but the EU’s version of the backstop remains the bugbear. The black scenario is:  no agreement on the border, no withdrawal agreement, therefore no transition and no deal. To be honest, nobody except …

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The Trump Protests – The personal, the political, and the possible…

For the record, I didn’t travel to London to protest at Trump’s visit to the UK. But when large scale protests are taking place literally within chanting distance of your hotel room, then I wasn’t going to miss the chance to join in. The first protest, led by the Trump baby balloon (not overly impressive in the, em, plastic), had just made its way into Parliament Square as we arrived. I was immediately struck not only by the diversity of …

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Theresa May is playing well off a weak hand

Five Labour votes on Tuesday, plus really poor whipping on Monday night  that allowed  the Lib Dem leader and his predecessor to miss the vote  are two crucial factors that helped save  Theresa May’s  bacon this week.  The Commons will stagger on until Tuesday after all, as the government didn’t dare press for an early recess today after their hair’s breadth wins earlier this week.  Internal opposition to May has come from both sides, first  from Brexiteers opposing the Chequers …

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“Another torrid day (in Westminster) for Theresa May…”

I do wonder from some of our conversations just how detached Northern Ireland is becoming from the reality of Brexit politics. Here’s a useful update on that tight parliamentary arithmetic in the House of Commons from Gary Gibbons… Mick FealtyMick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the UK and Europe. Twitter: @MickFealty

Abstentionism may have a place, but hedging on Northern Ireland’s anti Brexit interest is another matter

As Andrew Rawnsley recalled at the weekend, it was Lyndon B Johnson who declared that the most important talent in politics is “the ability to count”. He said that in the context of Theresa May’s tricky arithmetic at Westminster… There aren’t enough people who can count around Mrs May. The fatal flaw in her plan is that there is no majority for it in the House of Commons. Or rather, just the thinnest majorities for some of it in the …

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Go further Theresa, even if it means splitting the party. And Leo, ease up on the backstop if she does.

Pressure may soon become irresistible for Theresa May  to go against the habit of a lifetime and take a terrific political life or death gamble. Opening up  beyond her  bedraggled Facilitated Customs Arrangement  unveiled at Chequers  is  Labour’s choice of a customs union – if not now, in the autumn. But this will mean a huge bustup and split in the Conservative party and require Labour support  – official or unofficial  – to pass. In the meantime, the Tainaiste is reconciled …

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Getting beyond old murals of “resistance” and recovering our lost “ceremonies of innocence”

Here’s a (very) rough cut of a conversation I had on Radio Ulster’s Good Morning Ulster with Independent councillor on the Derry And Strabane Council, Paul Gallagher about the replication of violence depicted on the famous Petrol Bomber mural. In fact, Paul makes points I agree with. He references the role of poverty, lack of opportunity and eager willingness of young people to leave the city. It’s a situation that’s not that much different from the late 70s and early …

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My bet still is that Theresa May will face down her overexcited critics

For MPs at Westminster, the long hot summer ends on Tuesday week.  In the short time remaining, the government will scrape a majority for the Trade Bill.  Over the next couple of days David Davis and perhaps Boris Johnson will make resignation statements in the Chamber that will fuel speculation about a coup. But time is tight to mount a leadership challenge against Theresa May before the adjournment. The political journalists’ lobby know this but want to keep the pot …

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Inventing the Myth on the Eleventh Night: Review of Connal Parr’s Book on Ulster Protestantism

“What is distinctive of political Protestantism – its Orange marches, its flute bands, its lodge banners, its sectarian songs – is taken to be the sum of all cultural life in that community.” – Prof Arthur Aughey, quoted in Connal Parr, p. 15, Inventing the Myth We are on the eve of the Twelfth – usually considered the height of Ulster Protestant-Unionist-Loyalist cultural expression. But Aughey’s words should give us pause for thought. Aughey is quoted in Connal Parr’s widely …

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Perspectives on Change from a Dublin-dwelling northern Prod

I am a Northern Irish Protestant who has lived in Dublin for the past twenty five years. I am proud to be from the Protestant community and proud to be from Northern Ireland. But I have never been so proud to be part of a society, as I have been to be part of the Republic of Ireland in recent years. A society that voted, myself included, in favour of marriage equality and a woman’s right to choose. I have a friend …

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Boris Johnson resigns as foreign secretary – The Brexit implosion continues….

Boris is the latest to jump due to the burning platform that is Brexit. Who will be next? Will there be a leadership contest? Popcorn at the ready… Johnson quits amid Brexit row https://t.co/STjaliDISs — BBC News (UK) (@BBCNews) July 9, 2018   Brian O'NeillManaging Editor of Slugger O’Toole. I help to manage Slugger by taking care of the site as well as running our live events. My background is in business, marketing and IT. My politics tend towards middle-of-the-road …

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David Davis explains why he resigned as Brexit Secretary.

David Davis: “Theresa May and I both want to deliver the best Brexit. She’s offered a diluted version of it.” Watch again ▼@JuliaHB1 | https://t.co/sv3MZUm41c pic.twitter.com/Qe6UsXKt9a — talkRADIO (@talkRADIO) July 9, 2018 David Davis: “I will not run for leadership of the Conservative party.” Watch the full interview between Julia Hartley-Brewer and former Brexit Secretary David Davis on our YouTube channel ► https://t.co/Cpr3QLEXla@JuliaHB1 pic.twitter.com/0LR0ly9VK5 — talkRADIO (@talkRADIO) July 9, 2018 David McCannDavid McCann holds a PhD in North-South relations from …

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The bogey of a hard border is starting to vanish before our eyes

Majority reaction to the Chequers summit is cautiously optimistic, most reservations from all but the Brexiteer fanatics being postponed, using the alibi  of next Thursday’s publication of the 120 page government White Paper before they fully respond.  If you’re naturally positive, you’ll see it as an undoubtedly soft Brexit;  if  you’re a cynic whether Leaver or Remainer, you may call it a fake Brexit. The outcome can be summed up by saying that on goods and regulations, the UK will …

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Defence Secretary Williamson revealed as private backer of an amnesty for soldiers

Despite this Sun ” exclusive,”  the ambitious Defence Secretary – the man who as chief whip negotiated the Conservative-DUP parliamentary deal – will have other things on his mind today – like which way will he jump on Theresa May’s Brexit plan?   GAVIN Williamson has secretly backed an amnesty for IRA terrorists — as the price for ending the witch-hunt of troops, The Sun can reveal. The Defence Secretary wants Theresa May to grant British troops who served in Northern …

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The role of the block grant in the constitutional debate

Writing in the News Letter yesterday, Owen Polley makes the case for winning over the centre ground to the Union in an article which is surely a classic of the genre. Airily dismissing his own contribution to the debate as a commentator, he spends most of his article heaping scorn upon NI’s centre ground for openly considering the idea of constitutional change, and then goes onto scold Unionist politicians for their failure to win support for the status quo. Once …

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