The burning border problem. Is it a gnat or a camel?

Only two things  are sure about the Brexit arguments.  Over the border issue ’they’re hotting up inside the Conservative party. And the binary nature of the exchanges between Theresa and Boris produces only deadlock as binary arguments tend to do. In her BBC interview no doubt she believes she’s defending “the precious, precious Union” and the will of the Northern Ireland people. But as interviewer Nick Robinson might have reminded  her, they voted in favour of Remain. Does it really …

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Future Ireland: Writing Competition

This is an open call for submissions on our current featured topic – Future Ireland: Alternative Conversations about Unity and the Union You can read a little more about the aims of the project here, and the types of contributions that we’re seeking. Here are some examples.  But we suspect that you might have some even better ideas. So we’re putting out an open call for articles on this topic.  The best three articles will win a prize (tbc – …

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Future Ireland: Alternative Conversations About Unity and the Union

The future of Northern Ireland is deeply uncertain. Brexit, the rise of English nationalism, Scotland, Stormont deadlock and demographic change make Irish unity a realistic alternative. The polls vary greatly, but some have unity very much within sight, especially if there is a harsh Brexit and a disruptive border. People are talking about this at kitchen tables across the north. But whilst we are highly engaged about if we would like unity or the union, and many of us have …

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Brexiteer border plan is not a game changer, nor a government wrecker for the DUP

Will Arlene Foster proclaim the merits of the Brexiteer European Research Group’s plan for the border when she meets Theresa May?  She will come under immediate pressure to give her verdict – for or against the Chequers plan on which May refuses to compromise; or in favour of the ERG’s? Nigel Dodds has declared the plan which is rival to the prime minister’s plan “positive and timely.” But is this an implied  threat to withdraw support from the government? It …

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RHI turning into a bonfire of the DUP’s reputation to do basic government…

Shortly after the RHI story broke I remember remarking on the irony that the party had been hit in a policy area over which it had frequently expressed utter contempt. Sammy Wilson’s notorious flip from signing an early day motion in Westminster on climate change to full blown sceptical disciple of Nigel Lawson is a particularly stark example of the low contempt many in the party hold for any environmental policy. So Tim Cairns’ revelations didn’t stop at Jonathan Bell’s …

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Big business’s demand for same sex marriage must set a precedent for more challenges to our embarrassingly out of touch politicians

Hooray!   At last! Civil society, for so long  fearful of saying a single word that would offend a politician, has plucked up enough courage to speak out on a burning issue that’s also a glaring anomaly.  In a  move  that takes advantage of the political vacuum and shows just how fed up they are with it,  normally cautious big business is calling  for equal marriage to be extended to Northern Ireland. They’re arguing on the grounds of creating better jobs …

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As the practicalities of the border issue are wrestled with, the pressure on the DUP is mounting. Are the hardline Brexiteers preparing to rat?

Now what?  On the border issue, the EU Commission and the Brexiteers are coming closer together than either to the government, according to the Guardian.  This report shows that both sides are getting down to the practical options,  instead of political grandstanding. Do the options appeal to the DUP? Downing St are sticking with ” no EU officials” at British ports but for how long? Does ” no EU officials ” rule out categorically different rules for the island of …

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Micheál Martin: “the core of nationalism is to secure a unity of people and not just a unity of structures…”

In his recently published book, my old Slugger partner in crime Paul Evans describes the rise in the populism as a  form of anti-utilitarianism in which political gaming is gradually crowding out representative democracy. Whilst keen not to paint Brexit or the election of Trump as civilisation’s end, he highlights the capacity for hidden interests to manipulate any electorate through dark money and by sending radically different political messages even to people living under the same roof is rising. The resulting squeezing of …

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The EU may shoot Boris’s fox and bail Theresa out

The FT  has discovered a blink of light for Theresa May  amid the general Brexit gloom.  The Daily Telegraph is among other papers  lifting the story, labelling it, “Operation Save Theresa.”        The EU is preparing to give its Brexit negotiator new instructions to help close a deal with Britain, in a conciliatory move that will bolster Theresa May as she suffers savage attacks from Brexiters at home. An informal summit in Salzburg this month between the EU’s …

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If the MoD stalls over the Ballymurphy inquest, you can forget drawing a line under the Troubles

The Channel 4 film “Massacre at Ballymurphy” will quickly be seized on as ammunition in the battle of narratives for dealing with the past.    Those who complain that not only the narrative but justice has become one sided may believe that the documentary has handed a propaganda victory to Sinn Fein: and so whatever the gross hypocrisy involved,  it probably has.  But this is beside the point.  To think of it only in Clausewitzian terms is to view it through the …

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When oh when will the UK government stop stalling on the backstop?

Why  is  Michel Barnier being messed about over the backstop and the border? On Tuesday he said this to the Commons Brexit  Select Committee. I am very concerned about Ireland. We need to find a solution that avoids the return of a hard border and that remains today the main obstacle on our road to an agreement between the British and ourselves. On the ground, ladies and gentlemen, it is impossible—this is nothing new—to distinguish between customs checks and other …

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Spurred on by the generals, the government now admit they’re considering an amnesty

For the first time the UK government have admitted they’re considering a general amnesty arising out of the Troubles.  Although an amnesty is not government policy, the admission came in a Lords debate instigated by the former Chief of General Staff of the Army Lord Dannatt, supported by other former top brass and former secretaries of state. What remains unclear is  how this would affect the Legacy package of the Stormont House Agreement, including the proposal for an independent Historical …

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The time has come for the next Assembly to vote on a border poll

In a brave attempt to discuss a border poll dispassionately, Newton Emerson is tentatively suggesting that it might be a good idea to hold a sort of test poll outside the terms of the GFA “to clear the air.” Unfortunately his analysis is better than his prescription, as a poll of any sort  under official sponsorship, even one declared in some way not to count,  would  inevitably still stimulate  the  seven year itch  among nationalists he rightly identifies , to …

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From the London broadsheets, rare interest in Irish developing positions is to be welcomed

The criticism  is well made that  British  interest in Irish positions is generally self serving and fails to recognise their independent validity. Any slight shift in this is to be welcomed. The London broadsheets  have paid Sinn Fein the rare compliment of taking seriously the party’s think-in at Cavan. It’s worth noting that they have yet to broach the notion that a  Brexit solution would  be so much easier if Northern Ireland were to join the Republic.  Quite apart from …

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The arrest of two journalists is a symptom of a bankrupt system for dealing with the Troubles legacy, with no solution in sight

The arrest and interrogation of two journalists  suspected of stealing documents  in connection  with  the making the film documentary No Stone Unturned on the Loughinisland murders, is a perfect example of how the current handing of the Troubles legacy is deeply unsatisfactory. In the present vacuum, the PSNI, which still retains  front-line legacy responsibilities,  seems to feel bound  to  be seen doing something, even in cases where they look self interested, counterproductive and downright foolish.  On the face of it …

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Future Ireland: Where Can The North Thrive?

For some masochistic reason, I feel umbilically connected to the soil and the soul of this island. Especially this messed up northern corner of it. But there is no point in drawing borders in the soil, and driving flags into it, when it only has 60 more years of harvests left to give. It occurred to me recently that the best case scenario for Northern Ireland, as things stand, is to have a mediocre Brexit, for Stormont to limp back, for orange …

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Brexit crisis point is arriving even faster than expected

At the opening of the Westminster season, no time has been wasted for open warfare to break out inside the Conservative party.  Theresa May’s Chequers plan is assailed from both left and right, in the old terms, between Leave and Remain.  Its main thrust – separating the authority  to lay down rules for goods from regulations for services –   is now specifically rejected by Brussels. Crying wolf is easy but this looks really serious.  Boris slaps down his challenge in …

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Border issues are difficult enough without manufacturing a phoney one

In response to Fionnbhar’s post, Newton has said  most of what needs to be said. Debate over tariffs and regulations has been conflated with security to a ludicrous, irresponsible degree. Whatever shape Brexit takes, it can be made clear now that terrorist threats will be dealt with as they are dealt with already – by intelligence-led policing across Ireland. The latest kerfuffle over a  open or a hard border is just one example of a prevailing paradox. That in a …

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If #WeDeserveBetter, We’ll Have To Vote For It

I really want to be supportive of the #WeDeserveBetter movement. I think it’s a great thing when thousands of people come on to the streets to encourage the political compromise without which power-sharing cannot work. But really, do #WeDeserveBetter when ‘we’, the people of Northern Ireland, have collectively rewarded the DUP and Sinn Féin for taking the stances they have? Well into the period of stalemate, in last June’s General Election, the DUP and Sinn Féin were ‘punished’ by the …

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The consultation on the Legacy Bill has predictably divided along sectarian lines and is doomed to fail. Radical thinking is needed, and is available

Arthur Aughey, a doyen of thoughtful unionism, has made an important contribution to the Newsletter’s series on “the legacy scandal” ( no mistaking  their point of view). The draft Bill involves a civil service logic: it is time to get this done; the template has been agreed; so let’s get it done. From that bureaucratic angle, it all makes perfect sense. The Legacy Policy Team has done its job There is another logic in play, that of policing and justice. …

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