Confusion over the state of the Brexit negotiations increases anxiety as May’s cabinet prepares to decide on a formula

Civil society in both islands  looking on anxiously at contrasting stories about the state of the Brexit negotiations are speaking out. Persistent fears of a hard border has prompted a group of nationalists to  approach Leo Varadkar  to protect northern nationalists’ rights. This the second appeal of its kind in a year. Latest 4pm  Leo Varadkar said this afternoon Ireland is willing to consider proposals for a review clause in relation to the backstop for the Irish border. The backstop …

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Most Northern Irish parties need Stormont more than it needs them…

Where are we after the presidential elections and Brexit? And when can we expect a return to actual politics in Northern Ireland? It’s difficult, not least because no one yet has an adequate response to question of why it collapsed in the first place (seriously, we don’t). Karen Bradley’s briefing to the parties on Thursday suggests it won’t be before new year (when we should know what Brexit looks like). As Jon Tonge noted on the Nolan Show on Thursday, …

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What was that again about a breakthrough?

Yesterday to the Sunday Times, the British side was talking up the prospect of neutralising the backstop and forecasting the emergence of a winning formula. Today EU sources were clear that they were keeping the backstop in reserve and fully charged, while back home, the reported formula was being attacked by Leave and Remain.  By Tuesday we should know if there is enough agreement to call an EU special summit on 21st November. Full marks to Patrick Smyth of the …

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“Breakthrough on the backstop, claims the Sunday Times

In an “exclusive” pieced together from “dozens” of Whitehall and EU sources,  the Sunday Times claims that Theresa May has secured a deal that will keep the whole UK in the customs union for the transition.  A political declaration on  “a future economic partnership” (FEP)  will allow the UK to strike a Canada-style free trade deal that will appeal to Brexiteers. While the story doesn’t mention a specific time limit as demanded by the hardliners or a “break clause” floated …

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Future Ireland / Unity: Telling a Different Story

“There was never any moment in our history when slavery was not a sleeping serpent. It lay coiled up under the table during the deliberations of the Constitutional Convention.  Owing to the cotton gin it was more than half awake.  Thereafter, it was on everyone’s mind though not always on his tongue.” – John Jay Chapman. THE QUESTION The ‘national question is insolvable’, according to Fintan O’Toole. What O’Toole is referring to is the prevalence of irritants and grievances, imagined …

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Can it be for real? Arlene is looking happy

While Mary Lou and friends were dismissing Brexit secretary Dominic Raab’s visit “ like a thief in the night” as  a “box ticking exercise”, Arlene  was  treating us to a rare public smile.  “Goodness, we have been here on a number of occasions and I think we are close to a deal that will work for Northern Ireland, that is what we want.” Raab was guardedly optimistic again at Stormont. But the  louder mood music came out of the intergovernmental conference …

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Begging for bog rolls just beggars belief…

‘Pathetic games… a disgrace…it feels Victorian’ These were the words of the Principal of Maghaberry Primary School in describing the education funding system here to the NI Affairs Committee earlier this week. An impassioned Graham Gault sat alongside three other local School principals as he described how his budget had been squeezed so much he now has to ask parents for funding for sundry items such as toilet roll and pritt-stick. The group articulated a range of issues arising from …

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Trimble’s attack on the backstop has come too late

With prospects of a return to Stormont hovering around degrees absolute, the temperature is rising among unionists about the meaning of the backstop. They believe – and they’re not alone – that there is no outcome other than no deal that will not activate the backstop and “make Northern Ireland a protectorate of the EU.” Mixed messages are emerging as EU leaders have to decide whether to convene a special ratification summit on 21 November. Meanwhile a more parochial row …

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Retailers in Northern Ireland could now pay more than twice as much in rates as English retailers…

When Chancellor Philip Hammond presented his budget earlier today, he announced significant financial assistance to help small and medium-sized high street retailers in England, lobbing 1/3 of business rates bills for properties with an NAV lower than £51,000. It is still unknown whether similar savings will be extended to the struggling retailers of Northern Ireland. Technically the revised Barnet Formula will allow for such savings to be included in future Northern Ireland Budgets, however due to the current Stormont impasse, …

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Future Ireland / Does motherhood unite or divide us?

Most mothers have more pressing things to think about than constitutional arrangements. While there are some differences in the lived experiences of mothers in the UK and Ireland, they are small. In fact, our struggles are pretty much the same across national borders. Beyond the obvious, that all mothers want the best for their children (and often disagree on what that is and how to achieve it), we are united in our systematic disadvantage by the states in which we …

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Backstop blues on both sides as another “deadline” approaches

Interesting that the Irish Times have published two opinion pieces this morning deviating a little from the paper’s  editorial line of unwavering support for the EU version of the backstop.  Newton Emerson accuses Varadakar of having “a tin ear” to unionist sensitivities while Stephen Collins bluntly urges Varadkar and Coveney to “ shut up.”  Sensitivities in both camps are heightening. The DUP are nervous that Theresa May will rat on them if she can get a deal that will pass …

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“No Minister should be using any private unsecured email accounts for any official business whatsoever…”

Some, presumably, unintentionally revealing details from the former Northern Ireland Finance Minister, Sinn Féin’s Máirtín Ó Muilleoir, who appeared in front of the Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI) Inquiry yesterday.  This from his written statement [pdf file]  16.  The bundle of documents referred to above appears to indicate that you used the email account [email protected] to discuss, share, transact, or otherwise communicate Executive business and Executive policy; and that you discussed, shared, transacted, or otherwise communicated Executive business and Executive policy with …

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EU to offer “UK-wide customs treaty” and the backstop clause has changed

  The Sun and the Mail claim another “breakthrough” – but is it too good to be true? THERESA May got a Brexit boost today – as it emerged the EU will cave into her demands on the Irish backstop. But today RTE reported that the EU has accepted Mrs May’s plans could be workable as long as both sides sign a separate treaty to enshrine it into law. The compromise brings Britain and the EU a step closer to signing a …

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Time to stop making a fetish of the backstop and find a new formula via the GFA

Brian WalkerFormer BBC journalist and manager in Belfast, Manchester and London, Editor Spolight; Political Editor BBC NI; Current Affairs Commissioning editor BBC Radio 4; Editor Political and Parliamentary Programmes, BBC Westminster; former London Editor Belfast Telegraph. Hon Senior Research Fellow, The Constitution Unit, Univ Coll. London

Theresa May is shaping up for a fight. I rub my eyes, but for the first time yes, she even looks like a winner

Anonymous briefings from Brexiteer backbenchers claiming Theresa May is “entering the killing zone” and “ drinking in the last chance saloon” have backfired as the prime minister goes on the offensive in the Sun  in advance of a Commons statement on Monday afternoon.  Breaking the normal protocol of informing  MPs first, her Sun piece is a departure from her normal defensive stonewalling and a sign of new determination  to seize the initiative. Reports that she’s facing a cabinet revolt sound …

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The odds are narrowly on May surviving the week and staggering through to a withdrawal deal before Christmas

By a long way, more of the public demonstrated for a second  referendum yesterday than were threatening the prime minister in lurid language with nemesis on Wednesday. Just now though, it’s the MPs uttering the threats ( at least to journalists), who matter more. One prominent Brexiteer is making a distinctive gesture. In a further headache for May, the former Brexit minister Steve Baker yesterday tabled a series of amendments to the Northern Ireland Bill, which is due in the …

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Future Ireland / Nation-States Are Yesterday’s Politics – Let’s Review Our Terms and Conditions 

Global trends indicate that we are graduating from ideological party politics to voting based on personal priorities such as financial security. Trump’s America is the prime example. But, like their hurricanes, everything from the US eventually crosses the water and laps our shores. Unstoppable cultural homogeneity adds to this. With lightning speed our young people adopt the same fashion, music and patois globally. The extent to which this is manipulated by media giants, arms of government and lizard overlords is …

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Would “more time” bring us closer to chaos or breaking the backstop deadlock?

Will “more time” do it for Theresa May and the rest of us? The option of a longer transition is intended to provide more reassurance that special measures would not be needed to avoid a hard  border — even if the UK and the EU fail to implement a new trade deal by the end of 2020.   Because the EU is mildly encouraging,  the chorus of opposition  in Westminster is all the louder. Remainers are as dead against as Leavers  …

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Only now are both sides realising that the backstop can’t be blagged away

In single interviews it’s entirely appropriate for the presenter to play the devil’s advocate role. But in a long and pressing interview this morning on Radio 4’s Today programme  with Irish foreign minister  Simon Coveney, John Humphrys showed I believe a basic lack of understanding of the EU/Irish position of the backstop which partly explains why it’s  such a conundrum. I’m pretty sure it was more ignorance than tactic. All Humphrys  could do to fill the time was to keep …

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Belfast’s feminist film festival to host 4 days of films, discussions, panels across the city

“We want these important films to reach a new audience in Belfast and promote discussion about the things that affect women’s lives here and around the world every day.” Belfast’s feminist film festival – WANDA – proudly presents a second edition of exciting, diverse, new and retrospective films directed by women. Over four days the festival will feature films, panels, and a quiz at locations across the city such as Queen’s Film Theatre, Black Box, Beanbag Cinema, and the Accidental …

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