sdlp – Page 9 – Slugger O'Toole

Constitutional recoupling – the rise in the Nationalist vote in context

Peter Donaghy (Salmon of Data) on March 9, 2017, 10:59 pm

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The increase in the Nationalist vote at last week’s Assembly Election came as a surprise to many commentators. However, it is worth bearing in mind that support for the SDLP and Sinn Féin amongst the Catholic population of Northern Ireland was at a historic low in 2016, and therefore the increase in the Nationalist vote was starting from a low base. After last year’s Assembly election, I wrote about how the support for the SDLP and Sinn Féin amongst Northern …

Joint authority? “What on earth have you been smoking?”

Pete Baker on March 9, 2017, 4:41 pm

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In the Irish Times Newton Emerson takes issue with two of the talking points being promoted by the SDLP and Sinn Féin – EU ‘special status’ for Northern Ireland and ‘joint authority’. From the Irish Times Northern nationalism has an alternative to Brexit – special status for the North within the EU. Nobody has a clue what this means but at least Brussels has been asked if it will consider the possibility (it has said no). Northern nationalism also has …

After #AE17, the SDLP…

Mick Fealty on March 7, 2017, 10:54 pm

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So how did the SDLP do? They had few opportunities to make themselves heard through the gales of outrage which sustained an often extremely petty two party media scrap throughout the campaign. And they had to fight it on a tiny campaign budget. At best, I thought they could win eleven seats, or as few as nine. Whilst they did lose two sitting MLAs (West Belfast and FST) both had an uptick in vote share of 1.3%, and they picked up …

“No surrender” from Arlene, as she calls for a united unionist party on the eve of negotiations

Brian Walker on March 7, 2017, 9:54 am

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Arlene’s call for a single unionist party in the Belfast Telegraph is a clear sign she’s going make fight of it. Coming on the eve of first stage negotiations, it suggests a different focus – defiance. The move is out of kilter with the one action that would false foot Sinn Fein or get them back in government – standing aside as first minister even temporarily. Ideally, I would like to see a renewed attempt to create unionist unity where …

Building a bigger tent should still be a priority for Nationalism

David McCann on March 6, 2017, 4:08 pm

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Nationalism stands strong in the new Assembly with more seats, more votes and is now in a position to deliver more. I watched from the Titanic Count Centre on Friday, victory after victory for the Nationalist parties. Sinn Fein’s tsunami started in West Belfast and swept the province leaving opponents from People Before Profit to the UUP reeling. The SDLP also had some resilience and managed to gain a seat in Lagan Valley and came close to winning another in …

Despite going to the polls today, the Northern Ireland voters will have no say in the outcome. The two governments’ hands- off approach to Stormont will have to change

Brian Walker on March 2, 2017, 10:53 am

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People going to the polls today are being sold badly short. They do not know whether they are electing members to an Assembly that will function again. Northern Ireland is facing not an existential crisis but a failure of politicians to work a workable system consistently. The trouble is that no effective means of calling them to account has yet been developed. Most people, the public and politicians alike don’t seem to realise how appalling this looks to outsiders and …

#AE17 draws to a close; what’s your punt for count day?

David McCann on March 1, 2017, 12:24 pm

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Tonight we have Slugger’s Big Election Punt (in partnership with MW Advocate) where our panel will have to make some key predictions about the upcoming election. In that spirit we thought we would ask you about what you think will happen tomorrow in terms of the parties. For what it’s worth here is my punt (Some variation as a few seats such as South Belfast & Upper Bann are just too close to call). DUP; 30-31 Sinn Fein; 23-24 UUP; …

#BBCNIDebate sees energetic exchanges & a broad range of issues discussed

David McCann on February 28, 2017, 11:07 pm

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The five main party leaders gathered at the BBC Blackstaff studio tonight to discuss issues such as RHI, Brexit, Direct Rule & cross community voting. Chaired by Noel Thompson, he very ably directed candidates and the audience through out the night. For me, the strongest performance was from Colum Eastwood. For parties like the SDLP, just letting people know that you are on the stage is an achievement and he did this in spades tonight. From the opening segment on …

Can Nationalism bounce back in #ae17?

David McCann on February 28, 2017, 12:55 pm

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The Irish News Political Correspondent, John Manley has an interesting analysis piece in todays paper about the state of play within Nationalism He writes; Commentator Chris Donnelly has characterised this trend as the “nationalist malaise”. He believes its roots lie in the fact that the nationalist-republican community has become more contented within Northern Ireland. For those who believe changing demographics will ultimately deliver Irish unification, this electoral apathy is a deep concern. On the evidence of recent election results, the …

“Two balloons”? And the Facebook age finally strikes the Alliance party.

Mick Fealty on February 21, 2017, 5:24 pm

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Looks like someone sneaked into the Alliance Party’s closed Facebook group and came out telling tales. Or maybe it was just someone inside the party who wasn’t too chuffed at the nature of some of the offline online chatter: In an exchange with supporters in the ‘Alliance Party Activists and Volunteers’ group about councillors Geraldine Rice and Vasundhara Kamble, Mrs Long wrote: “These two are complete balloons. They staged a sitdown protest when Anna Lo got a standing ovation because …

If Stormont works on the basis of stoking fear or loathing of the other, is it time for ambitious change?

Mick Fealty on February 18, 2017, 2:39 pm

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Some useful thoughts here from Northern Ireland’s one man think tank, Newton Emerson, on the business of how the UUP and SDLP might provide a credible challenge to the new establishment parties of the DUP and Sinn Fein: What really stops the UUP and SDLP offering an alternative is that a Stormont executive must be led by the largest nationalist and unionist parties and there is no guarantee of the “moderates” leading both blocs. If the requirement instead was for …

A Women’s election?

Soapbox on February 17, 2017, 12:07 pm

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Andrée Murphy is a Columnist with the Andersonstown News Sitting in my living room on Thursday night seeing three women leaders of the local parties and two male leaders on the two fringes made me chuckle. I tweeted it was hard to believe that it was Michelle O’Neill’s first time in the spot as leader, such was her composure and capability. But then I also realised that it was also Naomi Long’s first time in that position too. I suppose …

Electoral Reform Society finds little transfers between opposite blocs.

David McCann on February 17, 2017, 11:31 am

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The Electoral Reform Society has today released findings from their survey of how we voted last May and the findings really blows a hole in the idea that transfers will be flowing from Unionists to Nationalists or vice versa. The study draws on data from thousands of respondents – over 4,000 – to create the largest database of voting patterns for NI. It shows that while only a small number – 4% of Catholics and 2% of Protestants – give their …

Running to stand still – how the move from six seats to five seats could hurt the UUP much more than the DUP

Peter Donaghy (Salmon of Data) on February 16, 2017, 9:55 am

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Previously, I looked at what might be expected from next month’s Assembly election if the current polling, showing a fall in support for the DUP with a corresponding rise in support for the Alliance Party and the UUP, is indicative of public support. The forecast model anticipated that the UUP could expect to receive 14 seats under such a scenario, which would be a respectable result given that they won 16 out of 108 seats in the previous mandate. However, …

Does it benefit nationalist parties to retain the Petition of Concern?

Daithi McKay on February 15, 2017, 9:54 pm

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The Petition of Concern currently requires 30 signatures from nationalist or unionist MLAs respectively to be triggered. With the reduction in the number of legislators to 90 Sinn Féin can no longer reach the magic number 30 on their own (unless the bar of 30 is reduced). Therefore is it really such a big leap to have a weighted majority mechanism set at a level that requires the support of at least one of the nationalist parties? With Jim Allister (and …

Opposition Parties risk turning #ae17 into a referendum on themselves rather than the past decade

David McCann on February 13, 2017, 2:03 pm

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The SDLP Leader, Colum Eastwood has an interesting piece on the Eamonn Mallie website which is worth reading in full He stops short of the full declaration that Nesbitt made yesterday on The Sunday Politics but he does make the case for shifting from the DUP and Sinn Fein as he writes; The SDLP has not been historically in the business of advocating formal transfer pacts and we will not be advocating such a pact in this election. However, it …

SDLP Campaign Launch puts Upper Bann firmly in their sights

David McCann on February 6, 2017, 1:22 pm

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The SDLP launched their campaign in Lurgan today with party leader Colum Eastwood setting out the party’s stall for the upcoming election. Eastwood did not mention other particular constituencies, but did spend time speaking about Upper Bann, which until last May was held by Dolores Kelly until Catherine Seeley from Sinn Fein won the seat. Here is what he had to say; Before addressing the continuing campaign that lies before us in the next few weeks, I would like say …

Candidates for #AE17

David McCann on February 2, 2017, 9:22 pm

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This is not a total list but I thought I would begin with some of the main parties running across all of the 18 constituencies. DUP- (38 candidates) North Belfast-Paula Bradley, Nelson McCausland, William Humphreys West Belfast-Frank McCoubrey South Belfast-Emma Pengelly and Christopher Stalford East Belfast- Robin Newton, Joanne Bunting, David Douglas North Down- Gordon Dunne, Alex Easton Strangford- Michelle McIlveen, Simon Hamilton, Peter Weir Lagan Valley- Brenda Hale, Paul Givan, Edwin Poots Upper Bann- Jonathan Buckley, Carla Lockhart South …

Are women making their mark in political leadership?

Sara McCracken on January 30, 2017, 1:15 pm

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Regardless of whether you agree with their politics or not, the appointment of Michele O’Neill as Sinn Féin’s leader in Northern Ireland should be welcomed. Northern Ireland, potentially, could have female First and Deputy First Ministers. Of course that depends on how votes are cast on 2 March, however we now have women leading our two largest parties and if nothing else, it shows that it is possible to reach the top. Combine this with the leadership of Naomi Long …

Now the turn of Seamus Mallon at 80. Why he and Trimble were unable to unite over arms decommissioning remains unexplained

Brian Walker on January 21, 2017, 9:04 pm

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Following the tributes to John Hume on his 80th birthday, the venerable SDLP deputy leader and the initial deputy first minster Seamus Mallon has given a fascinating interview to the Irish News for his own 80th. In passing I can’t help noticing the comparisons and contrasts with Sinn Fein. What are yours? On working with David Trimble, Ulster unionist leader and the first FM Mallon says his permanent secretary, civil servant Billy Gamble – “an absolute gem” – regularly had …