#AE17 draws to a close; what’s your punt for count day?

Tonight we have Slugger’s Big Election Punt (in partnership with MW Advocate) where our panel will have to make some key predictions about the upcoming election.

In that spirit we thought we would ask you about what you think will happen tomorrow in terms of the parties.

For what it’s worth here is my punt (Some variation as a few seats such as South Belfast & Upper Bann are just too close to call).

DUP; 30-31

Sinn Fein; 23-24

UUP; 11-12

SDLP; 10-11

APNI; 8

GPNI; 1-2

PBP; 1

TUV; 1

, , , , , , ,

  • woodkerne

    direct rule …

  • GS

    According to Paddy Power odds at the moment it should be DUP 34, SF 27, UUP 8, Alliance 8, SDLP 8 and Others 5.

    I’ll stick to the above and then go off piste below…

    I would love to see a Green, White Orange alliance of all 3 of the smaller parties on a mandate of anti-Brexit (ie campaign for free movement of people and goods from North and South), progressive social policies and centre-ish economic policies.

    The problem at the moment for this seems to they are competing for a small % of the overall electorate because they are not seen as viable due to the difference in size of the DUP/SF to UUP/SDLP. I think for next election they need to announce mandate together.

  • burnboilerburn

    I would agree with your numbers broadly speaking however, I have a sneaking feeling that this election might be the one where a surge in Alliance votes makes them the second biggest story of the election. It could mark a turning point in six county politics.
    The DUP should be ok West of the Bann but they will certainly take a hit in the east, how bad that hit will be is anybody’s guess. Sinn Fein should stand still in terms of popular support or gain slightly, they have been in government with the DUP so its hard to see how they can detach themselves in the minds of many voters.
    SDLP will shift up only slightly, which is somewhat unfair given Colum’s performance last night. But the party simply doesn’t have the confidence of the majority of Nationalist voters. UUP should benefit east of the Bann as a result of the DUP slippage and transfers from Alliance and some SDLP.
    PBP are in a bit of bother due to their Brexit stance and the fact they have only had a few months to bed down in the job, the big question is will they lose support to SF in WB, all eyes will be on that. TUV will definitely win a slightly larger share of the vote but not enough to have a big impact. Greens, as you were.
    The big story of the election will be the fact that the pro Union vote will score its lowest share of the vote in the history of the North. Now, that’s worth staying up late for.

  • Gingray

    DUP 30, SF 22, UUP 13, SDLP 12, All 8, Others 5

    SF/SDLP vote to increase, UUP/All to stay static, DUP to drop

  • Zorin001

    I think its all about turnout, if people are angry enough to turn out in big numbers then there’s maybe a chance of a shake up.

    If turnout is low then it means its only the core vote turning out and its plus ça change.

    Edit: I would be very happy with DUP dropping under 30 to stop them spamming the PoC but I don’t see it.

  • James Martin

    Thank you for this David- I think broadly it looks about right. South Belfast is going to be fascinating to watch but I think Christopher Stalford will edge it while in Upper Bann I can’t see Doug Beattie getting in. Would be interested to see how you think it will shake out in each constituency (although I know you are a busy guy!)

    I wonder whether Alliance might lose in South Antrim- Sam McBride has reported a claim from SDLP that Roisin Lynch is doing better than expected on the doors which makes me wonder whether Mr Ford could lose out. Will be a very close run thing there I suspect.

  • GS

    If anyone can tell me where they think the below (Paddy Power odds) is off I make might make a few actual punts… https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2301f9a0ddcd7eb6ad17e165de9867cabf7a2815d01d9d5a08e7e9b471c16542.png unts…

  • James Martin

    Strangford looks off- I would think Mike Nesbitt will get back and I don’t see Joe Boyle getting in there. FST will be close between 3rd SF, UUP, SDLP and possibly 2nd DUP. North Belfast- I think SF will lose out to Nichola Mallon in the second seat. I can’t see the SDLP losing their seat in West Tyrone either. I also wouldn’t be shocked if David Ford misses out in South Antrim to Roisin Lynch- he polled very badly last year and apparently she is doing well. Betting on DUP 3 in Strangford, North Antrim, East Londonderry is pretty risky…

  • GS

    Thanks, DUP being largest party looks an absolute cert though. I can’t understand how it is only 5/1 on as you would need so many big shocks for SF to overtake them.

    There seems to be a larger difference in projected % votes garnered versus projected total seats this time around…

  • James Martin

    Agree with you on DUP being the biggest party. Evidence of a collapse in the DUP vote or a massive increase in turnout just isn’t there- could be wrong of course, but it would be a big shock. 5/1 looks like a very good bet to me…

  • salmonofdata

    There are so many ultra marginal contests that any seat prediction could be miles off due to small margins at individual counts, but I’ll go:
    DUP 31, SF 25, UUP 13, SDLP 8, AP 8, GP 2, PBP 1, TUV 1, IND 1

    I think it’s about time we moved to an Israel style single constituency purely proportional electoral system. The current system heavily favours the incumbent big 2, the DUP could get 26% of the vote and over a third of the seats.

  • burnboilerburn

    West Belfast is incorrect, SF will have three seats with PBP 1 and SDLP 1.
    East Antrim is wrong, the DUP will only win two seats.
    Likewise East Derry is the same with the DUP only winning two.
    FST is wrong, it will be 2 SF, 1 UUP,1 DUP, 1 SDLP.
    Lagan Valley is wrong, Just two Dup seats there.
    North Antrim is wrong, just two DUP seats.
    Strangford the same, just two DUP seats

  • GS

    I had an error on Strangford sorry! Mike Nesbitt is 200/1 on so one of the safest returns in assembly

  • GS

    I have an error in Strangford the UUP should have 1 , not SDLP.

    As for all the rest where you mentioned DUP will only have 2, could you hazard a guess who else will gain?

  • GS

    Also Alex Attwood is 11/4 to get in in W Belfast which seems unlikely…

  • burnboilerburn

    OK I have it worked out to a Tee !!
    DUP 28
    UUP 14
    IND 1
    TUV 1
    Total Unionist 44
    SF 24
    SDLP 12
    PBP 1
    Total Nationalist (ish) 37
    Alliance 8
    Green 1
    Total Others 9

  • Croiteir

    DUP 30
    SF 24
    UUP 14
    SDLP 11
    All 7
    GRN 1
    TUV 1
    PBP 1
    IND 1

  • burnboilerburn

    In most cases I think the UUP will gain due to an increase in first preferences and ABD (Anyone but DUP) transfers from everywhere including Sinn Fein. Watch carefully on Friday at how many SF transfers find there way back to the UUP where applicable.

  • burnboilerburn

    I think he will do it. If he misses out it will be by the skin of his teeth.

  • burnboilerburn

    Only 22 for SF, where do you think they will struggle?

  • JR

    My prediction,

    DUP 26, SF 25, SDLP 12, UUP, 13, TUV 2, AL 7, Gr 2, PBP, 2 Claire Sugdan to keep her seat.

    Just going through the results of the last election there are so many ways the last seat in each constituency could break down that the results could fall in so many different ways. This is the most uncertain election in a long time.

  • Tochais Siorai

    Hi GS, have you pulled the top 5 shortest prices off the PP odds in each constituency to predict that outcome?

    If you have there’s an inherent flaw from working it out like that in some constituencies.

  • Mark Petticrew

    Alliance were on 9.4% in the latest Lucid Talk poll, an increase from 7% in the 2016 Assembly election. This 2.4% rise is most likely to be found east of the Bann, so I’ll interested to see on Friday how Alliance has faired in the greater Belfast area constituencies.

  • rg

    DUP 31 SF 23 UUP 11 SDLP 10 ALL 8 Others 7

  • rg

    Absolutely not. DUP will have
    LV 3, NA 3, Strangford 3 FST 2
    East Derry doesn’t exist.
    Paddy Power has Arlene 200-1 and Morrow 100-1.
    boiler burn, you’d better get a bet on Barton quick then! You could make a fortune.

  • rg

    You don’t have to stay up late. Day count?

  • rg

    If these are right it’s ‘Goodbye Mike’.

  • Gavin86

    If you guess correctly is there a prize? Perhaps a bag of wood pellets or maybe a pet crocodile?

  • burnboilerburn

    We don’t have long to wait but there is no way the DUP can hang on in Strang, LV,NA and EAST DERRY in my view 😉

  • burnboilerburn

    And thats why I really feel the DUP are in trouble East of the Bann. A resurgent Alliance, a full in DUP first prefernces, An increase in UU vote share……could be a pile of trouble for Arlene.

  • Zorin001

    I’d say it might as well be goodbye UUP because if they can’t make hay with the governance issue they have nowhere else to go. Alliance have the Centre/Centre-Left Unionist vote locked up and the UUP’s last attempt to out-right the DUP was a dismal failure.

  • Biftergreenthumb

    Do PBP designate as nationalist? I assumed they were ‘other’.

  • Stiofain McClean

    DUP – 32
    UUP – 10
    SF – 22
    SDLP – 12
    APNI – 8
    Greens – 2
    PBP – 2
    TUV – 1
    and Sugden . . .

  • GS

    Yea that’s exactly what I did, Whats the flaw? Curious to know thanks

  • Tochais Siorai

    Basically, it’s that some of the top 5 may be competing with each other for the same vote and there may be candidates outside the top 5 where there may be 1 probable seat between them but because it’s so close their individual odds may be long enough not to make the top 5 e.g. East Derry has 4 Unionist seats (incl Sugden) in your spreadsheet but there are probably only enough votes for 3. There are a couple of others where DUP 3 may be a bit optimistic for them even though they’re all odds-on shots as individuals.

  • GS

    Ok thanks, this is first election I’ve really looked closely at it. Those last seats in about 6/7 constituencies could really impact the final result.

    There is one where I have 2 Alliance seats , is that another statistical anomaly or genuinely possible?

  • Tochais Siorai

    Don’t think so, I’d say Alliance should get 2 in EB.

  • jeep55

    Alliance odds on to retain 2 seats in East Belfast

  • CatholicLeft

    DUP 29
    SF 24-25
    SDLP 11-13
    UUP 11
    APNI 7-8
    GP 2
    PBP 2
    TUV 1
    Sugden 1

    Pretty much where I started the election, though some close results could change everything.

  • Gingray

    Partially based on my overall view in that both SF and SDLP will rise slightly, this would impact more on the SDLP who had been further off the quota. I can also see SDLP getting better transfers this time from PBP, Alliance, Greens and UUP.

    Hmm, Upper Bann, I think losing the incumbent in Seeley make skew votes somewhat, and SDLP will sneak back in. Defo 2 nationalist seats, tight tho.

    Belfast North – I think this will come down to transfers at the end, SF do not have enough for 2 candidates without SDLP votes, and I think the alliance candidate will be eliminated before Mallon which will boost the SDLP above SF.

    West Tyrone – difficult to hold on to 3, unionists are running 2 candidates with over 2 quotas which would help the SDLP here.

    Mid Ulster – similar to West Tyrone, SF need a perfect balance, I think they may get it, perhaps at expense of SDLP (gave this as SF)

    East Antrim – gave this as SF, but again will be very tight

    West Belfast – 4 seats is difficult to hold, cant see it with PBP and SDLP and Unionists in the mix

    Foyle – again, I dont see SF outpolling SDLP, and there is a safe unionist seat. That gives a fight between PBP and SF and I think McCann will win out for name recognition purposes.

    Newry and Armagh – 3 is hard on 2.5 quotas, and the SDLP and DUP have over a quota each, with UU just under. 9 candidates with the 3 non MLAs on less than 2k votes means FPV will be more important and cant see all 3 SF being higher than the 3 rivals.

  • Gingray

    FST might over estimate SF

    Not sure Sugden will make it (should be 2 nats) in EL

    No way SDLP in strangford and no UUP – other way around probs, maybe even 2 UUP given Bells entry

  • the keep

    The big story of the election will be the fact that the pro Union vote will score its lowest share of the vote in the history of the North. Now, that’s worth staying up late for.

    Surprised your SF bosses allowed you to say that…: )

  • burnboilerburn

    Yes they designate as other but they are anti partition.

  • burnboilerburn

    Good stuff thanks for that. Reasonable enough. One thing. If the pools are correct and there is a Nationalist uptick, could that not put pressure on the Unionist seat in Derry?

  • the keep

    I have a feeling that the DUP will do a lot better than people suggest my gut instinct is 33 seats for them and 27-28 for SF as for the rest they will make up the numbers again.

  • Gingray

    Could be, tho cant see it – Unionists are on apx 1.1 quotas following the last election and they cross transfer better than nationalists. Even with an uptick, I think DUP will get in. Been wrong before tho, mostly be overestimating nationalism however 🙂

  • burnboilerburn

    I’m self employed mate. No SF bosses here.

  • GS

    What about North Belfast? PP has 3 DUP at very short odds.

    I thought that was a more mixed constituency? (Gerry Kelly and Nicola Mallon to get in too)

  • GS

    Belfast North – I think this will come down to transfers at the end, SF do not have enough for 2 candidates without SDLP votes, and I think the alliance candidate will be eliminated before Mallon which will boost the SDLP above SF.

    So 3 DUP or 2 DUP and 1 UUP?

    Thanks!

  • rg

    In your dreams.

  • Brendan Heading

    These results would mean both the DUP and SF proportionately increasing their vote share in the space of ten months more than they increased it over the five year period 2011-16, with the UUP and SDLP votes suffering a minor collapse. I would have thought this unlikely, but who knows ..

  • Brendan Heading

    Agreed with a list system, or at least a list element. Especially since the parties seem to reserve the right to shuffle people in and out of constituencies using co-option anyway.

  • Westie tyrone

    belfast ,if the dup can get 2 southbelfast 2 east belfast and 3 north belfast ,which ,could be possable ,i think they are well on there way too a ,good election ,the rest will fit into place ,west off the bann ,i do think ,its very possable ,that the dup wiil get 2 in south belfast ,

  • Gingray

    UUP quite far behind the DUP, so think 3 DUP

  • Jollyraj

    Perhaps a “United Ireland 2117: We can do it!!” T shirt?

  • Barneyt

    so u we DUP suffering the greatest casualty as I see you expect gains for all but them? We can but hope some switch to UUP

  • Gingray

    Feck that PBP are essentially the Irish wing of the socialist workers party. Look into it, and look at coppingers stance on a UI referendum

  • Barneyt

    If true it’s squeaky bum time for DUP but suspect they’ll hold on to much of what they’ve got. Don’t think we’re going to see any shocks … unfortunately

  • Gingray

    Agree on everything bar lagan valley 🙂

  • Barneyt

    David I trust you’ll follow up with an actual article? Many see UUP gains and DUP losses and in some cases SDLP gains. Most have SF as a non mover. Here’s hoping for a better turnout and a few shocks

  • Gingray

    Why dreams? Unionist quota was 1.1 across 3 parties, and turnout was about 10% higher in unionist areas. If nationalist vote at an equal rate the seats in threat, but that turnout is unlikely

  • John Spence

    I can’t see Ford losing in SA. Alliance vote will be up, and SDLP couldnt make a quota last time. Their only chance of a seat is to replace SF, which looks very unlikely. Same as last election with one DUP loss.

    Overall for me

    DUP 28
    SF 25
    UUP 14
    SDLP 11
    APNI 8
    PBP 1
    GP 1
    TUV 1
    Ind. 1

  • burnboilerburn

    Coppinger is from the AAA wing of the party. The one time Socialist party. PBP is a seperate entity. Richard Boyd Barrett, Brid Smith and even McCann himself are on record as saying they support Unification.

  • jeep55

    I don’t think the UUP have a chance in N Belfast. They are fielding a new unknown and the relatively well known candidate last time failed to get 2,000 votes. But nor will the DUP make 3 quotas. I agree that if Nuala McAllister is behind both SF2 and DUP3 in the latter stages her elimination and transfers will bring Nicola Mallon home. But if she gets ahead of either SF2 or DUP3 then it all becomes quite fluid because at worst she is runner up and is never eliminated. There is just a faint possibility that highly polarised N Belfast could yield 2DUP 1ALL 1SDLP and 1SF – a seemingly moderate result! In my dreams of course – but that is where I came from originally when the area had a great reputation for electing moderate cross-community candidates

  • Gingray

    Yup, they defo do support it, but they have also stated they would not support a border poll. Essentially over 50% of unionists would need to support it.

    PBPA emerged as a front for the old SWP, their views in a UI are “interesting” to say the least, one that would be in confederation with socialist republics in Scotland wales and england. Nutters!

  • Fear Éireannach

    The big story of the election will be the fact that the pro Union vote
    will score its lowest share of the vote in the history of the North.
    Now, that’s worth staying up late for.

    Worth staying up for for some, but sure this will happen again and again.

  • burnboilerburn

    You also have to take account of where their vote comes from and where those votes transfer to get a sense of how their voters might respond to a UI poll, depending of course on the circumstances of such a vote.

  • Vince

    DUP 28
    SF 23
    UUP 14
    SDLP 11
    Alliance 9
    Green 2
    TUV 1
    PBP 1
    Ind Unionist 1

  • Lionel Hutz

    Sdlp need to get a further 150 to 200 votes ahead of Ford than they were last time

  • Lionel Hutz

    Belfast East: 2 DUP 1 UUP 2 All
    Belfast North: 3 DUP 1 SF 1 SDLP
    Belfast South: 1 DUP 1 SF 1 SDLP 1 ALL 1 GRN
    Belfast West: 3 SF 1 SDLP 1 PBP
    East Antrim: 3 DUP 1 UUP 1 All
    East Derry: 2 DUP 1 SF 1 SDLP 1 IND
    FST: 2 DUP 2 SF 1 UUP
    Foyle: 1 DUP 1 SF 2 SDLP 1 PBP
    Lagan V: 2 DUP 2 UUP 1 All
    Mid U : 1 DUP 2 SF 1 UUP 1 SDLP
    Newry Armagh : 3 SF 1 SDLP 1 UUP
    North Antrim: 2 DUP 1 SF 1 UUP 1 TUV
    North Down: 2 DUP 1 UUP 1 ALL 1 GRN
    South Antrim: 2 DUP 1 SF 1 UUP 1 SDLP
    South Down: 1 DUP 2 SF 2 SDLP
    Strangford: 2 DUP 2 UUP 1 All
    Upper Bann: 2 DUP 1 SF 1 UUP 1 SDLP
    Weat Tyrone: 1 DUP 2 SF 1 UUP 1 SDLP

    Totals:
    29 DUP
    21 SF
    14 UUP
    13 SDLP
    7 All
    2 PBP
    2 GRN
    1 TUV
    1 IND

  • rg

    You might be right about East Londonderry. Don’t know where East Derry is. Is that the Waterside?

  • mjh

    DUP 28
    SF 24
    UUP 14
    SDLP 9
    Alliance 9
    Green 2
    PBPA 2
    TUV 1
    Ind U 1

  • Tochais Siorai

    DUP 29
    SF 24
    UUP 12
    SDLP 11
    ALL 9
    GP 2
    PbP 1
    TUV 1
    IND U 1

    Bet – If you can get Roisín Lynch in South Antrim at anything over 3/1 it’s a decent punt – she was 9/1 with PP on Tuesday and 7s yesterday.

  • burnboilerburn

    No thats just Derry

  • John Spence

    With one seat less this time, almost certainly a DUP loss, there will be unionist votes to distribute. These will go to APNI in greater numbers than they will to SDLP. That’s why as high as 10/1 was available about the SDLPs success.

  • Tochais Siorai

    It’s a close call as to whether the DUP will get 3 there. Probably better than 50/50 but very close. 2 DUP and G Kelly safe but after that it’s squeaky bum time.

  • GS

    Is there any good live updates to follow from afar? I suppose it will be more relevant tomorrow though…

    And who would benefit from a high turnout?

  • Lionel Hutz

    You are right about it being a DUP loss but the problem is that there is a good chance that the elimination of either Lynch or Ford will happen before the elimination of the third DUP candidate. That’s what happened last year

  • How can it be wrong or incorrect until the votes are counted ? You just happen to disagree with GS, which is fine.

  • cornelu mc grath

    DUP 29
    SF 21
    UUP 14
    SDLP 13
    All 7
    Others 6

    Some of them are impossible to call.

  • John Spence

    Guess we’ll see soon enough. There was some money for SDLP candidate, but still available at 7s so a very outside chance. IMO

  • dog walker

    West Tyrone , more likely to be 2 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 UUP, 1 DUP

  • Gingray

    Oh aye, agreed, nationalist voters, but PBP do their own thing in the chamber, so I would wouldnt count them as nationalist MLAs.

  • GS

    I just read that PBP is well down so I hope you punted on this at 11/4 😉

  • JR

    No-one was that close but was I closest? Bit closer than David anyway. 😉