Mike Small runs one of the best known and most respected of the Yes campaign sites online, Bella Caledonia. His piece for the Guardian gives an useful overview of where the momentum for the Yes campaign has come from… 1. It is a movement, not a campaign: On a purely practical level yes is just better organised. As the New Statesman
Ian Parsley as part of the Stratagem series of guest blogs, lays out why the No campaign arrived at currency as its king card in the #IndyRef debate… Why is the focus on the currency? Throughout the campaign, polls have shown around 45-50% of people certain to vote No, and 35-40% certain to vote Yes. The “undecideds” are therefore crucial to the outcome and, if they are telling the truth to pollsters, they will decide which way to vote based …
Last Sunday, The Irish Voice hosted a debate in Malone’s Irish bar meant to focus some attention on issues of relevance to Scots of Catholic Irish heritage. In the event just 30 people turned up and at least 3 of those were journalists, including Mark Hennessy, UK correspondent of the Irish times. I was one of the speakers for Better Together. Rather optimistically, I assumed that providing an Irish dimension to what has often been a doggedly inward-looking debate, might …
As we get closer to the crunch moment for the #IndyRef sides, it’s clear where the confidence is. Last night after a scrappy three a side encounter on STV, the two Blairs (Jenkins and McDougall) were both claiming victory. Jenkins for the Yes keen to emphasise the emotional connection of their ringer, the actress Elaine C Smith with the audience, whilst McDougall pointed to Labour’s Kezia Dugdale for bringing home the policy beef. This, in shorthand, is the difference between …
Nice piece of analysis from John Curtice at What Scotland Thinks in which he notes the strong pro Yes dynamic in the polls of the last week, in contrast to the general stasis of much of the campaign heretofore. Their poll of polls processes the latest ‘gains’ for yes, and (excluding Don’t Knows) set the current rate at the tightest margin yet… He offers four key points… …the issue that above all seems capable of persuading people to vote Yes or …
I was going to call it a night and go to bed when I picked this up from a reader though the Slugger Facebook page (give us a ‘Like’ if you don’t want to miss any of the good stuff here on Slugger). I think its worth sharing before the weekend properly kicks in and long before we can realistically figure whether it’s likely to go viral… Fascinating stuff, not least because it tells us more about the nature of politics …
I must admit that I struggle to see the dynamic middle ground in the debate over Scotland’s independence. There’s little doubt which campaign is the more dynamic. Just go to Pinterest and put in Scottish Referendum as a search term and you are dedazzled with a sea of Blue Saltired Yes graphics (try searching getty images too?), some of it highly creative. #136945596 / gettyimages.com Nicola Sturgeon has been preaching to large audience from Dumfries and Galloway up to Orkney …
The last major debate happened between Alex Salmond and Alastair Darling last night and commentators where flying with debates about who won (yes, some poor buggars thought Darling did win). Yet, very few people seem to know just what exactly the process for the count will be and providing the public service that we do here on Slugger, I thought I would put up the guide as published by the Electoral Commission for the how the count will take place. …
Now, when it comes to it, we try to the Scottish referendum seriously in its own terms, not simply to use it as a way to open conversations that are not yet viable in Northern Ireland. We’ll have Phil Mac Giolla Bhain on the ground before, during and after the referendum poll blogging live from the ground in Scotland. Phil is a committed Yes supporter, so we are also on the look out for a counterbalancing No blogger. In my …
Interesting one from `Cybernat` (his term) Craig Murray regarding the proposed Orange Order demo in Edinburgh shortly before the Independence referendum. The proposed Orange for No march appears plainly to be in contravention of the Public Order Act 1936. This act makes it illegal to wear a uniform to promote a political cause: Section 1 (i) Subject as hereinafter provided, any person who in any public place or at any public meeting wears uniform signifying his association with any political organisation or with, the …
Currency would not be a problem for an independent Scotland if, one, the Eurozone had settled its difference over what a fiscal union might look like; or two, the financial sector did not account for such a large proportion of Scottish GDP. Liam Halligan outlines the problem with some precision… The combined balance sheets of the UK’s banks amounts to a massive five times annual GDP. We have the most bloated banking sector of any major economy, making our public …
If you were one of the many who didn’t get to see the STV debate between Alec and Alistair last night, you can catch it here. You can make your own mind up who won the debate, but as both sides were keen to emphasis, debates don’t change the weather. #453220462 / gettyimages.com The results of this one though I suspect will have surprised most people. I don’t know anyone I spoke to about it beforehand who seriously thought Alistair …
I recently asked a Fianna Fail campaigner I met in Dublin recently what he thought of Micheal Martin’s plans to organise in Northern Ireland. “Ah”, he said, “it’s great idea, but most of us would like to see Fianna Fail organised in Dublin and Donegal before that happens.” As Miyamoto Musashi notes of strategy, “it is important to see distant things as if they were close and to take a distanced view of close things.” It’s not something politics has …
There is nothing new about the idea of federalism in Britain. Early last century a Cabinet sub-committee was tasked with drafting a Bill for a federal UK, in an attempt to deal with the Irish question. Federalism has long been a Liberal, then Liberal Democrat, objective. In recent months the idea has attracted more interest, as a possible way forward should Scotland vote No in September’s independence referendum. At its core, federalism is the belief that sovereignty is entrenched at …
So, what’s the latest on Scotland? The fairest assessment is that’s there’s no real change. As John Curtice notes, the issues having polarised are showing no sign of shifting votes either way. However, in one small regard he does hold out some hope for the Yes camp making some progress. It’s the issue of what further changes changes could happen if the vote in September is for a No. First of all 56% of Yes voters now actually think that …
The odd thing about yesterday’s dramatic YouGov poll in The Times is that it wasn’t that dramatic. 60/40 is reflective of a settled split in the Scottish people over the last few years, and to be fair, the latest Scotland Thinks Poll of Polls has the Yes camp rating just above that on 43%. The gap seems almost irreducible because among other things, as John Curtice has said, it’s about the economy, stupid. Being the bird in the bush, it’s the Yes …
I’m not sure Kevin McKenna’s experience of Referendum hustings is representative of the whole. The Yes campaign in particular seem to be reaching out in parts right across the vast swathe of land that is Scotland. But he makes a pertinent point about just how unwilling, or unable the country’s political elites are to deal with people who cannot be classed as white, middle class or liberal. Like for instance, the Orange Order: I’ve attended a few referendum gatherings and …
Whatever the outcome, the referendum on Scottish independence on 18 September will have a profound significance for relationships spanning Britain and Ireland. That was the assertion at a one-day conference organised through the Political Studies Association and Queen’s University Belfast today. In his opening lecture “Tangled Histories” Prof Graham Walker (QUB) unravelled some of the historical narrative and timeline of the British Isles and Scotland’s place within the Union. Irish partition and Ulster unionism had a major impact on Scotland. …
A typically passionate piece from Pat Kane in the Scotsman, arguing that Scottish independence is not something you can enjoy something of if you don’t have it at all. He believes this is a once off opportunity to re-arrange power relations on the island of Britain that won’t be coming back any time soon, if the Yes camp fails. I don’t know for certain whether Pat was inspired to write the piece after reading retired academic David Marquand’s hefty essay …
Interesting piece from Torcuil Crichton who is a Westminster lobby correspondent for the Scottish Daily Record, courtesy of Bella Caledonia.. There have been 29 general elections to the Dàil, Ireland’s parliament, since independence. Ireland’s Labour Party have won precisely none. When socialism goes up against nationalism in a country where all civic politics is about the nation, then Labour doesn’t stand a chance. What happened in Ireland – in fact Irish leader Eamon de Valera’s specific strategy – was to …
