EU – Page 45 – Slugger O'Toole

BREXIT: A possible way forward

Pádraig Belton on June 27, 2016, 3:10 pm

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This is something of a work in progress, for which I’m extremely grateful for thoughts. A fantasy PM would use Thursday’s result to get a programme for savage EU reform and a two-circle Europe, get a UK political mandate for that, then use it to checkmate both Juncker and Nicola. Here’s how: First, we need to keep mind of our friends abroad. Spoilers: Angela’s one. Besides her, the head of the German Greens has just come out today (here, at 3.15), and made a case …

So what, says Gregory, “the clock cannot be turned back to last Thursday…”

Mick Fealty on June 27, 2016, 2:12 pm

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I have to say Gregory Campbell is right. The clock cannot be turned back to last Thursday. The people have spoken (the b@st@rds). Here’s Stephen Nolan grilling him on Leave’s magnificent bait and switch on the electorate in the poster above… Sorry to keep repeating it over and over, but here’s Paul’s salient ‘Why Referendums Should Be Banned‘. They are NOT elections, so that conveniently no one on the Leave side can be held accountable for any apparent promises made, …

Brexit and the institution of disintegration as structural change…

Mick Fealty on June 27, 2016, 10:02 am

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There’s been so much good writing over the weekend since Friday, I’m going to revert to an earlier approach to blogging and try to keep things short and snappy, First up is Mark Leonard talking on Friday morning to Uri Friedman… …the basic mindset of Europeans has changed. Instead of thinking about the EU as a universal project, which would change everyone else, they’re starting to think about the EU as a fragile, exceptional project that needs to be defended …

Another of Brexit’s big losers: the opinion polls

Turgon on June 26, 2016, 10:02 pm

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In the maelstrom of comment following Leave’s victory in the referendum there have been many groups blamed, criticised etc. Amongst the greatest of the losers, however, are once again the pollsters. The pollsters have a singularly poor record in forecasting British national elections when they are remotely close. The original failure of recent times was John Major’s victory in 1992. Then the pollsters all claimed Kinnock would win. During the Blair years the pollsters did better but that was as …

Nationalists must keep their heads, when all others are losing theirs.

David McCann on June 26, 2016, 1:10 pm

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IF you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs Rudyard Kipling Chris Donnelly and Pete Baker have very diligently summed up the problems (folly) with the immediate calls for a Border Poll. We are constitutionally and politically in no mans land. What most of us thought was going to be a narrow Remain win was shattered at 4:40 am on Friday morning with David Dimbleby’s call that “the decision this country made in 1975 has been …

The British government must seek a mandate to negotiate brexit

Brendan Heading on June 26, 2016, 9:05 am

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As the shock of the brexit result continues to reverberate (and will for quite some time) there has been quite a bit of chat, in the mainstream and online media, and among friends, about how this decision could potentially be reversed. At the outset it should be clear that there can be no political prospect of the referendum being re-run. The campaign was long, there was no shortage of reading material or debating time, and there can be no attempt …

Devolved legislatures and the EU

Andy Boal on June 26, 2016, 7:50 am

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Jim Fitzpatrick drew our attention to an interesting possibility the other day: (extract from Chapter 7 of The process of withdrawing from the European Union) The key issue here is the competency of Westminster to amend the Northern Ireland Act 1998, the Scotland Act 1998 and the Government of Wales Act 2006 (and 1998 to the extent that it is still in force) to remove the obligation to act within EU law without the consent of the relevant devolved legislature …

Democracy: Referendums, Petitions, and a Reality Check for Leavers and Remainers Alike

Gerry Lynch on June 26, 2016, 12:10 am

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2.5 million people have now signed a petition calling for a second referendum. I won’t be signing it. It’s pathetic. We had the highest turnout in an election for 24 years on Thursday. I think collectively we’ve made a bad decision. But it’s the decision we made. You know what, in democracy, you win some and you lose some. Sometimes the decisions are momentous. There we go. Grow up and get over it. Where were those 2.5 million people when …

Post Brexit word from Eric Cantona [PS, Will Grigg’s on fire]

Mick Fealty on June 25, 2016, 11:53 pm

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That would be Eric Cantona as you have never seen him before, nor are likely to ever again… Mick FealtyMick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the UK and Europe. Twitter: @MickFealty

Taoiseach on Border Poll: “There are much more serious issues to deal with in the immediate terms and that is where our focus is.”

Pete Baker on June 25, 2016, 5:29 pm

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Northern Ireland Secretary of State, Theresa Villiers, was, rightly, quick to dismiss Sinn Féin’s attempted distraction predictably opportunistic call for a border poll following the EU referendum result. Here’s what she told Radio Ulster listeners “The Good Friday Agreement sets out the conditions under which I am required to call for a border poll – those are when I believe that there’s a reasonable likelihood that there would be a majority for a united Ireland,” [Theresa Villiers] said. “There’s nothing to …

The Irish can show the English how to handle nationalism better in post-Brexit Europe

Brian Walker on June 25, 2016, 12:39 pm

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The temptation is strong to go apocalyptic over Brexit. A slightly poorer UK with the threat of fragmentation hanging over it is not the ideal backdrop for stability on Northern Ireland. But here’s a thought. Why not set good example? After all, our experience of instability is unrivalled in modern western Europe. We know the score. Let’s pick our way through Stephen Collins’ prophetic piece in the Irish Times . There is some irony in the fact that on the …

REVERSE, REVERSE

Pádraig Belton on June 25, 2016, 1:15 am

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Just the very quickest of thought experiments: So, I’d be grateful for help in thinking this through. Namely, whether a pro-Remain party (maybe Labour under Jarvis or Chuka, or maybe a reborn Libs), or two, might find themselves with the seat balance after an Autumn snap election. Standing, say, on a ‘Let’s Not Leave’ platform. Or, for that matter, even in the next General Election. I would imagine the three possible circumstances then are these: (1) If Article 50 hasn’t been triggered …

Boris Johnson as the next Winston Churchill: not necessarily a complement

Turgon on June 24, 2016, 11:09 pm

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The Brexit victory has brought forward its leading light in Boris Johnson. Many now expect him to become the next Tory leader with Cameron having announced his resignation. Against that it must be said that the Tory party does not always forgive the slayer of its previous leader: Michael Heseltine never became leader; though Thatcher herself did. Boris Johnson elicits adulation amongst many of the grass roots. He is perceived despite his very posh roots as somehow a man of …

Referendum result: DUP in touch with Middle England

Turgon on June 24, 2016, 8:12 am

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Mick has his first thoughts on the EU referendum below. He has pointed out that although the majority of Northern Ireland voted to remain it was close: realistically most unionists voted to leave. To disgress for a moment. Prior to last year’s assembly election people suggested the DUP were beginning to lose touch with substantial parts of the unionist electorate. The victory for the UUP in South Antrim and the fairly close run win for the DUP in East Belfast …

So what happens now?

Andy Boal on June 24, 2016, 8:04 am

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Well, the markets are currently having their say, but I would strongly advise that we look at them in a week and a half and see if they recover from the initial shock. Now for Andy’s predictions on what happens from here. Negotiating our way out The next step is Article 50 notice to leave the EU, which by the look of it requires an Act of Parliament, which may or may not happen before the summer recess in July. …

Northern Ireland votes narrowly for Remain, but what does it mean?

Mick Fealty on June 24, 2016, 6:24 am

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Well, what a night. The final Leave vote will be much narrower than the Yes Vote was in Scotland, and the result much more profound. Although getting out of a long-standing contract with the EU will be a little more complicated. Much of the rapid movement in the money markets have already been exaggerated because they underestimated the likelihood of Britain (we can now legitimately say that) leaving the EU. But it is not going to go away any time …

#SluggerReport: Some final thoughts, before the brink…

Mick Fealty on June 23, 2016, 4:49 pm

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Last Slugger Report before Brexit…? Mick FealtyMick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the UK and Europe. Twitter: @MickFealty

Your detailed guide for tonight’s #EURef’s runners and riders…

Mick Fealty on June 23, 2016, 2:33 pm

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More good stuff for tonight… Further to Brian Hayes’s outline, here’s another fantastic resource from Slugger’s own electoral expert Nicholas Whyte… APCO’s Guide to Referendum Night from APCO Worldwide And more broadly there’s this from the Press Association. Don’t forget to tune into our live blog from 11 onwards, music, jokes, colour, and maybe a wee bit of politics on the side. A cut-out-and-keep guide to some of the key results to watch out for on #referendum night #EUref pic.twitter.com/cvvk22LjrU …

#EURef: Count & Results – What we can expect…

Brian Hayes on June 23, 2016, 11:02 am

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The referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU referred to as “Brexit”, has lead to unprecedented Irish interest in UK politics. Given that Ireland and Britain share so much – historically, culturally, politically and economically – it’s not surprising that many here have been watching the campaign so closely. While we have had 9 referenda on Europe since we joined on the same day as Britain, this is only their second referendum on Europe. As it’s over 40 years …

Britain will Brexit if young voters fail to turn out. It’s a real possibility.

Gerry Lynch on June 22, 2016, 6:46 pm

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Opinium was the most accurate online pollster at the 2015 General Election. They have just released their final poll of the referendum campaign: Leave 45%, Remain 44%, and 11% undecided. There was a swing in the polls last week, which began before the Jo Cox assassination and seems to have primarily been driven by worries about a post-Brexit economy, which spiked sharply at the time of George Osborne’s ‘punishment budget’. That has stalled and may have even gone into gentle …