Well Mairtin it’s a start!

 From the Irish Times. EU structural and investment projects in Northern Ireland signed before the British chancellor of the exchequer’s autumn statement will be guaranteed after Brexit, the Treasury in London has said. The current level of agricultural backing, which underpins the farming industry, will also be matched by the British government until 2020. Europe’s programme for entrenching the peace process through community development is due to run until 2020. The future of a programme designed to pump €17 million …

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Finance Minister says NI left out of Brexit negotiations: UK Gov won’t underwrite current EU funding for NI

Talking at this morning’s Big Ideas: Festival of Economics at NICVA, Finance Minister Máirtín Ó Muilleoir indicated that Northern Ireland was being left out of post-Brexit decision making in London. He also felt it was likely the British Government would not underwrite the “half of” current EU INTERREG and PEACE funding, adding that he expected farm payments would “fall off a cliff in 2020”.

United approach to Brexit? Well done, Arlene and Martin.

Rather out of the blue, this joint letter from Arlene Foster and Martin McGuinness   to the prime minister Theresa May changes the impression of a divided Executive heading for  a fresh stand-off and is to be warmly welcomed. It is artfully couched in calling for no weakening of cross border measures to deal with crime and implies that border posts could create targets for dissident republicans and others – points that will hit home with the former home secretary. It …

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David Cameron and the problem of setting real political choices

David Cameron’s referendums were regarded as reflections of ‘the will of the people’.  But is that true?  Here Peter Emerson of the de Borda Insitute questions that assumption then proposes a better methodology. 2011 Referendum on the Electoral System. Cameron’s first problem?   “Those damned Lib-Dems and the voting system!”  Hence the first ‘which’, to silence dissent in the coalition cabinet. Many people wanted proportional representation, pr, either pr-list as in Denmark, the Irish pr-single transferable vote, pr-stv, or whatever.  …

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Lisa Nandy: Labour must help its own voters to ‘take back control’.

Labour NI AGM table goodies

A quick break in the drama of the Labour leadership election, or for those still crying into a Remainers cup of camomile tea: Lisa Nandy MP makes a decent fist of outlining what Labour might usefully do next. In short, get over it. Find ways to get Labour’s voter base some real control over their lives with real policies that are likely to make a difference to the lives of a whole tranche of voters neglected since the early 80s. Her point …

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In overestimating Brexit’s short term effects, we underestimate it in the long run.

I’m  mostly lying low and sticking to Twitter through the summer holidays. But William of Here’s How podcast caught up with me last week to ask me what I thought the consequences of Brexit would be for NI. This was before the latest Scottish poll was announced showing that the EU appears to be as unpopular with Yes voters as it is with No voters from the first IndyRef. So there will be no plain sailing towards the UK exit. …

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Solving the border issue is recognised as an argument against a clean break with the EU

Although it’s firmly orientated to business and high finance, the Financial Times (£) concludes in an editorial that the British-Irish relationship should  put a brake on the extreme Brexiteers who favour a clean break from the EU. Both sides have much to lose. Without the support of its outsized neighbour, Dublin may now find itself more isolated in Brussels on EU issues such as tax harmonisation, which it opposes. Although Ireland’s economy is less dependent on the UK than it …

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Trade & Brexit: Where next?

Among the changes in Prime Minister May’s post-referendum reshuffle David Davis has now been appointed new ‘Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union’ or BrexitSec as I’m growing used to calling him. He caused a bit of a stir last Monday when he appeared not to know that the Republic of Ireland was no longer part of the UK. While a quick glance at a map may have told him otherwise I was slightly more surprised at some of …

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Immigration less of a problem, trade and customs more so, as Liam Fox rules out a customs Union with the EU. But Theresa and Enda think they see how to keep the border open

One of the leading authorities on EU affairs Charles Grant, the director of the centre for European Reform has issued  this warning: When it comes to economic ties, the 27 will be much tougher than many Britons expect. European leaders have an interest in ensuring that the EU maintains a close economic relationship with the UK, for everyone’s benefit. But they will not compromise on fundamental principles, such as free movement of labour as the price for single market membership. …

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O’Leary’s Dalriada proposal keeps Northern Ireland and Scotland in the UK and the EU

The political scientist Professor Brendan O’Leary is one of the strongest supporters of power sharing in Northern Ireland and an deviser of political solutions to ethnic conflict throughout the world. On leave from Pennsylvania University and an old boy of St Macnissi’s Garron Tower, he has produced the Dalriada Document – inspired by the ancient North Antrim- west of Scotland kingdom. The Dalriada document is an ingenious attempt to square the circle of keeping Scotland and Northern Ireland in both …

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An immigration breakthrough on Brexit points to a solution to the hard border problem

If it transpires, the Observer’s story on the EU granting the UK an exemption on free movement for EU citizens could be a breakthrough. How could an immigration cap  solve the problem of a hard border? On the face of it, it would make it worse. But if Ireland would join the exemption and agree an immigration cap with the UK based on estimates of the need for EU and non- EU workers, the issue of a hard border disappears. …

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Faint hopes only for a second Brexit referendum

Jeremy Corbyn’s challenger Owen Smith (once the smooth and effective special adviser to  Secretary of State Paul Murphy) has offered a second referendum or a general election to ratify any Brexit deal.  What, you hadn’t noticed? His offer has so far been buried in the controversy over the leadership challenge. Let’s see how it plays in the leadership campaign over the summer. Only Dominic Grieve the former Attorney General has surfaced for a second referendum among leading  Conservatives. Adds later …

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Remain campaign a victim of it’s own left liberal conceits?

A couple of thoughtful pieces to throw into the melee post-referendum. First Tim Harford in today’s FT… Here are four tenets of the trendy centre-left of British politics: first, soaring inequality means that ordinary people haven’t shared in the benefits of economic growth; second, rich people and big companies don’t pay taxes; third, gross domestic product (GDP) is a statistic that misses what really counts; and finally, economists are reliably wrong. It’s really interesting to look at how these tenets …

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Calm down, dears…

Wilful or otherwise, there’s been a degree of misrepresentation of Taoiseach Enda Kenny’s apparently unscripted, and qualified, comments at the MacGill Summer School yesterday – you can read the official version of his speech here. As the initial reported quote demonstrated, his focus was not on preparing for the prospect of referendums on a united Ireland, but on seeking clarification of what would happen, in the new post-Brexit world, in the event of a ‘Yes’ vote. Because if that possibility were …

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Micheál Martin invokes Hume to argue that the centre has, can and must continue to hold…

“Will it be said, when the array of tombs which stretch from end to end of Europe have been multiplied, that there had been plenty of time.., but that the statesmen waited too long and the soldiers took control?” – Eamon De Valera, address to the League of Nations I’ve been away over the weekend so I missed Micheal Martin’s speech at the MacGill Summer School in Glenties. The media generally picked up on his observation that Brexit could make the …

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Are the Dublin party leaders serious about raising Unity in the Brexit negotiations or are they playing Dail politics?

So Enda has taken the lead from Micheal who took his cue from Martin and inserted musing about a future border poll into his speech at Glenties.  For such a fateful topic  the whole sequence  has been deplorably improvised. The qualifications about lack of present evidence won’t stop the hare running now.  A border poll  can only be damaging in any volatile situation and a  monstrous irrelevance connected with Brexit, apart from the unpredictable fallout if  Scotland votes for independence. …

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In Brexit dialogues the DUP must be included. The Good Friday Agreement requires it.

Sadly, the Sunday Politics programmes have registered no closing of the gap between the DUP and Sinn Fein over “Brexit means Brexit.”  Inevitably there is a real danger that narrow politics and positioning will confuse already very difficult issues.  But at least they  are not the ones aggravating the disagreement at  the moment. They appear to be waiting on others for constructive responses. In a measured editorial the Irish News has identified “ an overwhelming case for the introduction of …

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In the welter of crises at home and abroad, ” calm down dear” is not a bad maxim for comment

Commentators have a natural tendency to over-interpret the world on the basis of the latest developments. I say “natural” because they are bound to feel compelled to rise up to the level of  traumatic events like Nice or the Turkish coup attempt. Over Turkey comment has been useful as there’s a lot to explain about the origins of the coup and the political upheaval going on in response. Over Nice, it’s much more difficult. Standby for the political crucifixion of …

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Appointment of James Brokenshire represents a serious upgrade to the NIO…

There have been jokes on the internet about how his name is appropriate for a place like Northern Ireland. But, with no personal slight intended, James Brokenshire is a senior upgrade from Villiers and a reflection of the fact that North-South relations will take on a heightened importance in upcoming Brexit negotiations. May’s right-hand man at the Home Office, Brokenshire was responsible for developing the UK Government’s immigration policy. He will, like all NI Secretaries of State, report directly to Cabinet …

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David Cameron’s very tidy innings as leader of the Conservative party…

I remember having a bit of a row with colleagues about whether David Cameron was going to be able to steer the Conservative party to success. By the time he took over in the wake of the party’s record third defeat at the hands of a Blair led Labour party, the Tories looked lost. The abiding weakness of his leadership of the Opposition and later his Premiership was the promise he’d had to make to his Eurosceptics to get the …

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