In overestimating Brexit’s short term effects, we underestimate it in the long run.

I’m  mostly lying low and sticking to Twitter through the summer holidays. But William of Here’s How podcast caught up with me last week to ask me what I thought the consequences of Brexit would be for NI.

This was before the latest Scottish poll was announced showing that the EU appears to be as unpopular with Yes voters as it is with No voters from the first IndyRef. So there will be no plain sailing towards the UK exit.

Rather, the broad line I took was that we overestimate the change the short term and completely underestimate it in the longer term. You can find the whole thing here.