Collapse the Executive? What unionists think…

In the first of a series of reports on its latest LucidTalk poll, the Belfast Telegraph is reporting on the popularity of the unionist party leaders, plus Carla Lockhart and Jamie Bryson amongst the supporters of each of the unionist parties. The scale is much as you would expect with Lockhart’s standing at stellar levels with TUV supporters, 85% of whom “have more faith” in her than in Gavin Robinson.

For the DUP leader the findings were deeply worrying. After the stinging rebuke delivered to her former party in a resignation letter which leant heavily on the accusation that the party had mislead its supporters, 47% of DUP voters stated that they had more faith in Lockhart than in Robinson. He can only muster 37% who have more faith in him. Any party leader facing those sorts of figures will know their time is limited.

In the unionist popularity parade Robinson comes fifth out of the five names polled. Lockhart came top with 68% of unionist voters, closely followed by Jon Burrows on 66%, then Jim Allister, Jamie Bryson with Robinson on 47%. (Poll responders were allowed to approve of each nominee.)

The poll revealed that DUP supporters were deeply divided on the approach the party should take to the future of the Executive, with opinion equally split between withdrawing Emma Little-Pengelly from the Deputy First Minister post, and thereby collapsing the Executive, or leaving her in place.

Clearly that question is tightly tied up with the question of party leadership.

We also know from experience that there is a large section of party supporters who will take their lead from the party leadership. That is probably shoring up the numbers who oppose collapsing the Executive. If the party were to change its current position, and withdraw Little-Pengelly party, that could be expected to swing large numbers of party loyalists behind the changed approach.

The other important lesson to take from this poll is the large majority of UUP supporters opposed to collapsing the Executive. Taken together with Burrow’s position as the most popular unionist leader, this gives the party the best opportunity it has had in a generation to place clear blue water between itself and its unionist rivals at the coming elections.

Michael Hehir

Michael Hehir is a retired sales and marketing manager. He studied in Northern Ireland but now lives between England and Italy.