Protestant Alienation 2011

Almost 20 years ago now the academic community in Northern Ireland first began looking at the concept of Protestant Alienation. Amongst the factors they identified were the feeling that the Hume Adams talks were creating a blueprint for the defeat of unionism which the British government might acquiesce to. That feeling of alienation increased with events such as the IRA ceasefire. Looking back it is now easy to read the IRA ceasefire as a victory for unionism: the IRA had …

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The UUP’s election: the past is another country

In the almost a month since the elections a number of attempts (Alex Kane’s is usually the best) have been made to analyse the UUP’s fortunes. The clear message from most (less so from Alex) has been that the UUP did badly and is in decline: quite possibly terminal decline. A number of reasons have been proffered for this state of affairs, most of them relating to the perceived rightward move of the UUP (again I point out that the …

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“resulted in it being promotional for the First and Deputy First Ministers and their respective political parties.”

As the News Letter reports, the UK’s communications regulator Ofcom has ruled that an OFMDFM radio advert – part of a £20,000 advertising campaign, in February 2010, promoting the Hillsborough Castle Agreement – was “political advertising” in breach of the Communications Act 2003.  The ruling upheld a complaint made about the advertisement by the leader of the TUV, Jim Allister. It’s worth taking the time to read the details of the ruling provided by Ofcom in their broadcast bulletin [pdf file] Conclusion on “public …

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Did Ruth Patterson not get Peter’s memo?

cropped DUP logo

The general opinion on Slugger – never mind media commentators and conversations in pubs and livings rooms – has been that the DUP have been edging towards the centre ground. Throughout the election campaign, Peter Robinson avoided criticising the deputy First Minister and generally avoided needling Sinn Fein – and Martin McGuinness reciprocated with his frequent references to “Peter and I”. While pockets remain in the DUP that still articulate their distrust and discomfort at working so closely with Sinn …

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Alliance: successes and dangers

The Alliance Party seem pretty pleased with their election. They received almost 51,000 votes, elected 8 MLAs and saw their share of the vote rise by 2.5% from 5.2 to 7.7%. (The council elections were broadly similar with them getting 7.4% and 44 councillors). They gained 1 MLA in East Belfast (from the PUP’s prodigal leader Dawn Purvis) which was the first time they have ever gained more than one seat in a single constituency in living memory. This success …

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Thoughts on the DUP’s victory

It may be more two weeks now since Peter Robinson’s triumph at the polls but although time may make people more blazé about it that does not change the nature of his victory. I have frequently argued that Peter Robinson was a master tactician but not a brilliant strategist. However, the tactics have now become so good, so long term and so apparently successful that they have effectively become a strategy. The whole thing looked so unbelievably different a year …

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Robinson: Softer, wiser, and stronger…

Lindy McDowell has never been any fan of the DUP, but… At the time I remember describing Peter Robinson as a lame duck leader. His electoral humbling by Alliance’s Naomi Long seemed to bear that out. I suggested that if the UUP were to get their act together (they didn’t; no surprises there) they would capitalise on DUP difficulties. But the moment passed and then a strange, unforeseen thing happened. Peter Robinson began to show his human side. Maybe he always …

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“What I can’t do is give a cast-iron guarantee…”

The new Northern Ireland Health Minister, the DUP’s Edwin Poots, has re-introduced doubt about the proposed radiotherapy unit at Altnagelvin when, during the election campaign, the NI First and deputy First Ministers’ had promised certainty. From the BBC report Mr Poots said he hoped to make a decision in the next few weeks. “It’s top of my in-tray. What I can’t do is give a cast-iron guarantee without having seen all the documentation and papers around this issue,” said Mr …

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The rubber stamp gets smaller?

Mark McGregor is of course right. At the very least the disclosure of the d’Hondt private run by the Executive Twitter account was a violation of the Assembly’s right to be first to know. It was like that in 2007, and is now. However there probably is some justification for it, given that such an important series of events almost certainly benefits from being run free from the procedural constraints of the Assembly floor. That said, it is of course …

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First DUP/SF back-room ‘deal’ of new Assembly?

After the public posturing by Sinn Féin earlier in the week, the DUP’s William Hay has been returned as Speaker in the new Northern Ireland Assembly.  The BBC report notes BBC NI’s political editor Mark Devenport said a deal had been struck between the DUP and Sinn Fein over the speaker’s job. “The job is going to go to William Hay, but it looks like he won’t actually be performing that role for the entire period of this assembly,” he …

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DUP dedicate victory to Kerr. Kerr brother rebukes UUP leader

While DUP leader Peter Robinson has dedicated his party victory in the Assembly election to PSNI Constable Ronan Kerr. Constable Kerr’s brother Cathair has rounded on UUP leader Tom Elliott describing his comments on SF as prehistoric, prejudiced and questioning if voters would support them. @EamonnMallie prehistoric comments. Ppl need to move forward. Would his voters still vote for him nw? I would strongly doubt they all think that?? They are prejudiced comments at the end of the day. Blank

“The [NI Environment] minister sought to clear a lot of business before leaving office…”

The BBC reports that concerns have been raised by the Ulster Architectural Heritage Society at the Northern Ireland Environment Minister, the DUP’s Edwin Poots’, apparent haste in seeking to have Ballyloran House, Larne, delisted by the non-independent NI Environment Agency before he leaves office on May 5.  From the BBC report The Ulster Architectural Heritage Society has said it is concerned by the timing of the move. “I can’t really understand the haste,” the society’s John Anderson said. “I would have thought that possibly …

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Last night’s leaders’ debate … and the draft programme for government (updated)

BBC leaders debate still from above

Opinion seems divided about the format and scheduling of last night’s leaders’ debate – available to view online. Personally, I liked the way that the format allowed the five party (northern) leaders to be put on the spot by members of the audience, tackling four areas each. It was at least as illuminating as the bickering bunfight that followed when the leaders got the chance to talk across and over each other. Update to bear in mind when reading the …

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Tweeting Fishy Minister makes it a Twitter election after all?

Koi Carp - photo from flickr.com/corrieb

I’m not sure that the scales fell from the DUP leader’s eyes, but when Peter Robinson fell into his fish pond this afternoon, it certainly gave us all a laugh. And by the string of tweets that followed, his iPhone wasn’t in his pocket when he slipped. 1) The Good Lord punishes any desecration of His day. I’ve been busy these last weeks and feeling guilty that my Koi Carp were neglected. 2) What harm could it be to remove …

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Everyone loves a mandate…maybe even a couple?

In response to Mark McGregors [limited] piece about double jobbing/dual mandates I thought I’d expand it a little and look at a comparative piece on the Alliance Party – candidates who are running for both Local Council and NI Assembly. At the end of this post there are also some percentage figures on MPs who are also running for the Assembly by Party. Choice of party for the first study was simply down to time limitations – I would love …

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West Belfast: Eaten bread soon forgotten #ae11 #belw11

In 2007 it was impossible for anyone that follows local elections to be anything but impressed with Sinn Féin’s vote management in West Belfast; 4.9 quotas returning 5 candidates when one of them (Gerry Adams TD) was exceptionally high profile seemed to be delivered effortlessly (those that have worked campaign trails know it will have been anything but). This time round SF are attempting the same feat with slightly different circumstance – Adams is gone so their vote management strategy …

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DUP and Sinn Féin manifesto launches

Sinn Fein Gerry Adams shadow at 2011 manifesto launch

Two contrasting manifesto launches this morning. With light flooding in through the Waterfront windows, the DUP launched their ring-bound (landscape) manifesto. The DUP filmed the launch and have uploaded it to Youtube. Peter Robinson declared: We delivered on well over 90% of the commitments in our 2007 Assembly manifesto. Interviewed at the end of March, Peter Robinson explained that while “the average citizen will not read the manifesto but it is a guide for the party itself. It’s the party …

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DUP already planning for co-options?

DUP Getting it Right logo

During the final months of the last Assembly there was a steady stream of co-options as MLAs stood down and allowed potential successors to raise their profile. A similar situation was taking place at council level. It now seems extremely likely we will have a raft of co-options at Council level from the DUP at least immediately after the elections. They uniquely have stacked their Assembly slate with candidates also seeking election to Councils. 64% of their Assembly candidates are …

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DUP confusion on First Minister post?

Until recently the DUP has played down the danger of Martin McGuinness becoming First Minister. They had suggested that this election was not about such things but about the economy, jobs etc. and have recently listed their “40 achievements in 4 years.” Last year Ian Paisley seemed less than worried by the prospect of Martin McGuinness as First Minister. Now, however, Peter Robinson has announced that who gets the First Ministership is a matter of vital importance and that the …

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DUP Election Broadcast Preview…

cropped DUP logo

Upbeat for most of it, finishes with a beautifully oblique reference to that old Martin McGuinness as First Minister schtick (or the simple fix as Lord Trimble would have it)… Mick FealtyMick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the UK and Europe. Twitter: @MickFealty