“is Gerry the Genius sure he has thought all this through?”

In today’s Irish News, Newton Emerson asks the impertinent question… Remarks by Mike Nesbitt about cross-community voting distracted from what should have been the major story of the week. Northern Sinn Féin leader Michelle O’Neill has said her party will not return to the executive with Arlene Foster as first or deputy first minister until the DUP leader has been cleared by the Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI) inquiry. O’Neill added this was a red line issue – something Sinn Féin …

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A Women’s election?

Andrée Murphy is a Columnist with the Andersonstown News Sitting in my living room on Thursday night seeing three women leaders of the local parties and two male leaders on the two fringes made me chuckle. I tweeted it was hard to believe that it was Michelle O’Neill’s first time in the spot as leader, such was her composure and capability. But then I also realised that it was also Naomi Long’s first time in that position too. I suppose …

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Electoral Reform Society finds little transfers between opposite blocs.

The Electoral Reform Society has today released findings from their survey of how we voted last May and the findings really blows a hole in the idea that transfers will be flowing from Unionists to Nationalists or vice versa. The study draws on data from thousands of respondents – over 4,000 – to create the largest database of voting patterns for NI. It shows that while only a small number – 4% of Catholics and 2% of Protestants – give their …

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Running to stand still – how the move from six seats to five seats could hurt the UUP much more than the DUP

Previously, I looked at what might be expected from next month’s Assembly election if the current polling, showing a fall in support for the DUP with a corresponding rise in support for the Alliance Party and the UUP, is indicative of public support. The forecast model anticipated that the UUP could expect to receive 14 seats under such a scenario, which would be a respectable result given that they won 16 out of 108 seats in the previous mandate. However, …

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Where did the DUP get £250k for that Brexit Metro wrap around? (Answer: NI law says they don’t have to tell us)

When it comes donations and party funding, Northern Ireland is to the UK political world, what Panama is to tax. Peter Geoghegan and Adam Ramsay with a nice piece of investigative journalism at Open Democracy: A quarter of a million pounds is unlike anything the DUP has spent in the past. Just a month before the EU referendum, the party won 38 seats in the Northern Ireland Assembly elections and retained its position as the largest party there. To do …

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Mike Nesbitt is pitching to his voters to use their judgement, not to his candidates. It makes perfect sense

Most commentators have stated the obvious. Whistling through their teeth as they praise him for being brave in classic Yes Minister mode – .i.e. suicidal – the best that can be said for him  is that he should have looked forward to cooperating with the SDLP after the election and left it at that. But that was to miss the point. What Mike Nesbitt did was break a taboo by  daring to propose voting outside the big tent. If not …

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Obsessing about vote management is inevitable but shouldn’t distract us from what happens afterwards

Ulster Unionist leader Mike Nesbitt has predictably taken a hammering over his personal choice to vote SDLP next. The Newsletter has helpfully quoted 8 UUP candidates who think otherwise. They can hardly be blamed. Most of them  rely on DUP transfers to  get elected and aren’t expecting SDLP transfers anytime soon. They mortally fear a DUP plump that leaves them high and dry and in some cases, Sinn Fein cosy and warm and elected  instead. So why did Mike do …

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Opposition Parties risk turning #ae17 into a referendum on themselves rather than the past decade

The SDLP Leader, Colum Eastwood has an interesting piece on the Eamonn Mallie website which is worth reading in full He stops short of the full declaration that Nesbitt made yesterday on The Sunday Politics but he does make the case for shifting from the DUP and Sinn Fein as he writes; The SDLP has not been historically in the business of advocating formal transfer pacts and we will not be advocating such a pact in this election. However, it …

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Arlene’s partial withdrawal will not close the crocodile’s jaws. Remember what happened after a previous DUP leader said “never?”

I would contextualise David McCann’s well- balanced report of Arlene Foster’s partial climbdown a little differently.  How will she now follow through?  Gerry Adams is bursting to  know. He or Michelle O’Neill  and will challenge her shortly. All the other parties will join in the chorus. When columnist Eilis O’Hanlon, a keen debunker of  Sinn Fein positions  joins the club of critics and accuses Arlene Foster of lack of commitment  to “the long term interests of unionism” we know the …

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Foster “Once again we stand at the political crossroads”

Arlene Foster has taken the Irish News to write a platform piece seeking to debunk myths about her relationship with Sinn Fein On the Irish Language Act she said; Let me say from the outset I respect those who have different cultural interests to me. Those who genuinely want to learn and speak the Irish language are entitled to do so as part of the increasing diversity of our society. However there can be no escaping the fact that some …

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Straight comparisons with Wales are barmy. An NI Language Act under Assembly control would be nothing like

Perhaps Arlene Foster deserves a crumb of sympathy when Nelson McCausland makes claims like this about the cost of Sinn Fein’s version of an Irish Language Act. So, we are talking about an annual cost that can be estimated at around £100m a year. That is £2bn over the next 20 years. Shades of RHI Aaaghh!! But it’s nonsense to think that any such Language Act here would be as extensive or as expensive as the Welsh provision. The comparison …

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Jonathan Bell to stand as an independent in Strangford #ae17

Former DUP Minister, Jonathan Bell announced on Nolan this morning that he is standing as an independent in the Strangford constituency Bell received 3,393 first preferences in 2016 and was elected on the 3rd seat. David McCannDavid McCann holds a PhD in North-South relations from University of Ulster. You can follow him on twitter @dmcbfs

Fake News and the Assembly Elections

How does the saying go – fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice shame on me!    If one positive thing emerged from the 2016 US Presidential Election, it’s the focus on the phenomenon of the influence of Fake News on the electoral process.  It’s difficult to assess the level of impact but we’ve heard that #fakenews is already out scoring real news in terms of attracting clicks and the UK MPs believe that democracy itself is under threat. …

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For our uncivil politics, an Irish Language Act is part of the solution

 



Among Sinn Fein’s list of grievances claiming lack of unionist respect is the failure to introduce an Irish Language Act. It is an important but seemingly not a red line issue. Oddly enough this may make it more amenable to settlement. It is among the SDLP’s desirables. It looks as if Enda Kenny will back it in whatever happens after the Assembly election.

At first glance the chances of any sort of development are unpromising. It raises all the hackles and is easy campaign fodder.   As David has reported below, with her familiar lightness of touch Arlene Foster has borne down on the language issue in her undiplomatic reply to Sinn Fein’s “diplomatic offensive.” We need not take this as the last word after 2 March.  As she knows, Mrs Foster misses the point while  Ms  O’Neill has declined to lock horns on the issue.

We know how on this as in many others, rival parties make a battlefield out of the fine print of legal entitlements and equality impact assessments. This gets us precisely nowhere.

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Foster: “Are you serious? You think the DUP should implement an Irish Language Act?”

It was a tale of two campaign launches this morning as the DUP and Sinn Fein launched their campaigns for the upcoming election. The DUP Leader, Arlene Foster was asked about her party’s policy on an Irish Language Act and her response was swift and decisive. She compared the implementing of one to “feeding a crocodile” which would simply see more demands made for Unionism   However, Michelle O’Neill at the Waterfromt Hall was not taking the bait; Asked about …

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“I don’t have to be a Sinn Féin republican.”

Despite the efforts of the former Sinn Féin MLA for North Antrim, Daithí McKay to reinvent himself [move along now… – Ed], some of his supporters appear not to be prepared to let it lie. Having resigned from the party over its handling of the Jamie Bryson coaching scandal, and its anointing of Daithí McKay’s successor, former Sinn Féin councillor Monica Digney is standing in the Northern Ireland Assembly election in North Antrim as an independent candidate. As Mick noted in August last year One of the 18 to resign, …

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Candidates for #AE17

This is not a total list but I thought I would begin with some of the main parties running across all of the 18 constituencies. DUP- (38 candidates) North Belfast-Paula Bradley, Nelson McCausland, William Humphreys West Belfast-Frank McCoubrey South Belfast-Emma Pengelly and Christopher Stalford East Belfast- Robin Newton, Joanne Bunting, David Douglas North Down- Gordon Dunne, Alex Easton Strangford- Michelle McIlveen, Simon Hamilton, Peter Weir Lagan Valley- Brenda Hale, Paul Givan, Edwin Poots Upper Bann- Jonathan Buckley, Carla Lockhart South …

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What on earth is James Brokenshire up to? Does he even realise he’s attacking the judiciary?

The recently retired and very steady SDLP veteran MLA Alban Maginness who is also a qualified barrister has been given space to mount a  measured  criticism  against  secretary of state James Brokenshire in the Belfast Telegraph for  his disastrous article in the Sunday Telegraph  complaining  that  an apparent “imbalance” that has led to a “disproportionate” focus on criminal inquiries involving former soldiers.“I am clear the current system is not working and we are in danger of seeing the past rewritten,” …

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The splits over Brexit in the election campaign distract from bigger realities. As usual

So no news in the fact  that  the DUP and Sinn Fein remain at odds over Brexit. Sinn Fein’s new Northern leader Michelle O’Neill rejects Theresa May’s assurances on an open  *frictionless?”  border. Mrs O’Neill said: “What we are very sure of is the implications of a hard Brexit are going to mean a hard border – a soft border is a nonsense. Nigel Dodds dismisses this as hot air, adding a twist by reminding the UK government that  moving …

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Theresa May holds the initiative as she makes promises on an open border

While the world is transfixed by Trump, we made a little quiet progress on the interlinked politics of Brexit and the future of the Assembly. What did we get from Theresa May’s immersion in the generally anti-Brexit atmosphere of the joint ministerial committee and a summit with Enda Kenny? A warm gesture of commitment,  that’s what, riding above the divisions which leave her unfazed for now  and  rather more than we might have expected,  in the form of an article …

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