Northern Ireland at 100: Unionism failing; Nationalism stuck; Moderates thriving…

One hundred years after Partition, Northern Ireland is still in existence. It would surely come as a big surprise to many who thronged the streets of Belfast on June 22nd 1921 – the date King George V opened the first NI Parliament in City Hall – that unionism is now a minority in Stormont. It would also surely come as a big surprise to many nationalists in 1972 that the state set up to guarantee unionist rule in north-east Ireland …

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Two “Communities” demographics: Don’t mention the Others

Roy Fisher does a deep dive into the census data, showing how it is almost impossible to opt out of the two communities model… “When I told the people of Northern Ireland that I was an atheist, a woman in the audience stood up and said, ‘Yes, but is it the God of the Catholics or the God of the Protestants in whom you don’t believe?’” – from The Wit and Wisdom of Quentin Crisp (1984) When the quotation above …

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Mike Nesbitt should sit down with Peter Robinson and extract a win-win deal for political unionism

Many will be aware of the Belfast Telegraph’s interesting take on East Belfast this week alongside the excellent work of Bill White and Lucid Talk.  The results of this poll are not unexpected. Naomi won in 2010 by 1533 and according to today’s poll there is approximately 1500 votes between the two, meaning this seat is still a marginal. Turning to the key battlegrounds, Gilnahirk/Cherryvalley/Tullycarnet/Knock is 3 to 1 in support of Alliance over the DUP, with Ballyhackamore/Belmont/Stormont 2 to …

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South much younger than the north, and north east older than the west.

Fascinating report on a new joint study of the census demographics of Ireland… The median age, the point at which half of the population is younger and half is older, was 34 in the Republic, the lowest of any EU member state. The median age in Northern Ireland, while higher at 37, was also comfortably lower than the EU average of 41. “The highest median age can be seen in eastern areas of Northern Ireland, in particular in Ards, Castlereagh, …

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Sinn Fein’s Demographic war for constitutional change is useless without middle class

Interesting take from Denis Bradley on Friday on the current impasse. In it, he accurately describes the model as I suspect SF see it: While an unreformed DUP occupy one of the corners in the boxing ring, Sinn Fein are in no danger of being removed as their opponent in the other corner. Our history and our divided loyalties have tied us into an incessant battle of numbers – the majority living in fear of becoming the minority and the …

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After Haass, the numbers game threatens. How can we avoid it?

 Ed Curran was right to tweak his old bête noire  BBC N Ireland for allowing Nolan the day off on Boxing Day instead of going live on Haass. Or was he?  Were you all better off without Nolan’s bear baiting over the cold turkey even if you were home alone on the day?  Even though desperate for content over the silly holiday season, the national UK media virtually ignored the Haass talks breakdown. What coverage there was – and still is – …

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The population continues to rise but so does the brain drain

The UK is experiencing a baby boom as the number of births hits the highest level in 40 years, according to mid year figures just out.  Only a small fraction of the country’s higher population is now due to foreign immigration.  In Northern Ireland where the population has continued to increase, more people left than arrived last year.  But the facts about bouncing babies fail to conceal a continuing severe problem of emigration among Northern Ireland’s young people, which a …

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NILT for 2012 suggests passion for constitutional issues is dropping fast…

Headline findings from the 2012  Life and Times survey includes some mixed news, and some fascinating snippets. Ive added emphasis to highlight some of the more intriguing findings: percentage believing that a United Ireland is very unlikely has now risen to 41%. proportion of Catholics expecting Irish unity remains less than among Protestants. a marked rise in the percentage of people describing their national identity as Irish, up from 26% in 2010 to 32% in 2012 a fall in the …

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We need fresher thinking than this

Two New Year articles worth noting which struggle with the abiding theme. Given prime billing in the Irish Times, Robin Wilson laments the anti-democratic and physical force elements in both of our traditions as we move further into the decade of commemoration. His historical sweep of a century reinforces his determinist case against the GFA accommodation, leading to his usual bleak conclusion. For Bertie Ahern and Tony Blair, the Northern Ireland “peace process” was defined by a realpolitik where moral …

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Demographic nightmare

If both sides are to be believed then no one is to blame for the ongoing nightmare in North Belfast. Still there is something quite chilling in the latest statement from Loyalists with regard to recent violence. It is forthwrite, simple and completely unapologetic: The senior loyalist said that Mr Lawlor had been killed in retaliation for a gun attack on Sunday evening in which a Protestant teenager was seriously injured. He said: “We’re one bullet, one fatality away from …

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