The population continues to rise but so does the brain drain

The UK is experiencing a baby boom as the number of births hits the highest level in 40 years, according to mid year figures just out.  Only a small fraction of the country’s higher population is now due to foreign immigration.  In Northern Ireland where the population has continued to increase, more people left than arrived last year.  But the facts about bouncing babies fail to conceal a continuing severe problem of emigration among Northern Ireland’s young people, which a cursory scan suggests is even worse than the Republic’s. Have others caught up with this? Am I suffering from blogger’s nightmare, the only one who hasn’t?

In the year to June 2012 there were 813,200 births, the largest number since 1972, according to the Office for National Statistics’ annual midyear population estimates.

Overall the population increased by 419,900 to 63.7m – the largest increase of all EU countries. Almost two-thirds of the growth came from natural population increase – the number of births minus the number of deaths. The remainder came from net migration, which was 165,600, down from 247,000 the previous year

The estimated usual resident population of the UK in mid-2012 was 63,705,000. This was comprised of 53,493,700 in England, 5,313,600 in Scotland, 3,074,100 in Wales and 1,823,600 in Northern Ireland. In Northern Ireland more people left than arrived, so births accounted for all of the net population growth.

A year earlier in mid-2011 the estimated usual resident population of the UK was 63,285,100. This was made up of 53,107,200 in England, 5,299,900 in Scotland, 3,063,800 in Wales and 1,814,300 in Northern Ireland.

Regions of the UK

Mid-2011 and mid-2012 population estimates for the regions of the UK show that the population increase in the intervening year was greatest in southern and eastern England.

London had the highest population increase, up 1.27% during the 12 month period, with the South East, East and South West regions of England increasing by 0.83%, 0.77% and 0.73% respectively.

The lowest regional population increases in the year to mid-2012 were seen in the North East of England and Scotland at 0.23% and 0.26% respectively. The population of Wales increased by 0.34% and the population of Northern Ireland by 0.51%.

If population increases are a guide to relative prosperity or well being, NIK is not doing badly on that score – better than Scotland, Wales and the north east of England.

No region of the UK experienced a population decrease. The percentage of live births in Northern Ireland to mothers born outside the UK was 17.6% in the calendar year 2012. This has stayed broadly similar over recent years, but is higher than a decade ago (13.5% in 2002).

But here’s  the downside

Almost 25,000 left Northern Ireland in 2010 -11. Most of those emigrating are aged between 16 and 39, and it means the average age of NI’s rural villages is rising.

The Republic

According to  BBC News in May quoting a survey carried out for the National Youth Council of Ireland,

In the past four years, 300,000 people have emigrated from the Republic of Ireland; four out of 10 of them were aged 15 – 24.” Half of those aged between 18 and 24 have considered emigrating.

In his latest column in the Irish Times Vincent Browne quotes the following emigration  statistics but these don’t seem  to square with those above. Does anyone  know  which is accurate or how they may be reconciled?

The net outward migration of Irish nationals was 26,000 in this Government’s first year in office, in comparison with 22,400 for the previous year. The total net outward migration of Irish nationals was 34,400, the worst since 2008.

Vincent’s figure suggests that the immigration figures  from NI were similar to that from the Republic. – meaning they were  proportionally far worse.  Can this be true?

 

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  • aquifer

    Students leaving for UK institutions and not coming back could account for a lot of the losses.

    They are hardly going to come back to tie a flag to a lamp-post are they?

  • Greenflag

    @ Brian Walker ,

    ‘the facts about bouncing babies fail to conceal a continuing severe problem of emigration among Northern Ireland’s young people,’

    Which eventually leads a decade or two hence to a population deficit in the 30 to 50 years age cohort which in turn leads to a greater dependency factor with larger numbers of elderly people and under 18s being ‘paid for’ by a smaller adult population . Adult immigration was/is supposed to offset this problem but the financial meltdown and it’s impact on the construction sector has probably sent many ‘migrants ‘ back to their countries of origin or even to Britain.

    Ultimately the loss of youth to a society will result in a ‘geriatric ‘ society which will by default be more conservative -less open to economic , social . religious or political change and with probably less crime .For decades in Ireland that was the case and only in fits and starts from about the 1960’s onwards did a fast rising younger population start to put pressure on the establishment to bestir itself.

    Birth rates both North and South have much reduced since the 1970’s and this was seen to impact population in the 1990’s when large numbers of immigrants started arriving to make up for the labour shortages .

    ‘Vincent’s figure suggests that the immigration figures from NI were similar to that from the Republic. – meaning they were proportionally far worse. Can this be true?’

    You may have meant ’emigration ‘ figures in your above quote? If so it’s probably a reflection of the trio of factors i.e lack of private sector employment growth in NI over recent years , cutbacks in the public sector with fewer or less opportunities in the public sector , and what Aquifer refers to as the student exodus .

    Given the lack of opportunity back home many of these brighter folks will tend to remain where they can start careers . The Republic in the mid 1980’s lost some 250,000 young people but it’s estimated that more than half returned in the 1990’s early 2000’s so it’s clear that if opportunities become available in NI and/or the Republic some of the younger population may return.

    Emigration in the 19th and 20th centuries was the safety valve which permitted both political establishments in the Free State/Republic and in Northern Ireland to maintain their power structures without too much hassle . It’s probably fulfilling the same role today both In NI and the Republic .

    As Eamon De Valera said in an address to the Dail in 1934 (two years after winning the 1932 election)

    ‘No longer shall our children , like our cattle , be brought up for export ‘

    Twenty years later -Dev’s ‘children ‘ were leaving at the rate of 1,000 a week .

    The ‘failure ‘ of politicians North and South to even address the issue of ’emigration ‘ much less propose policies which would curtail the phenomenon should surprise nobody .

    They remain as powerless in that regard as they were and remain in regard to the financial sector meltdown and subsequent bail outs 🙁

    .

  • Barnshee

    There are few jobs about so its off for the young -a rerun of the 60`s —–tho If my recent experience is anything to go by the “immigrants ” are both staying and turning up all over the shop.

    Local Italian— Restaurant owner Spanish -waitresses Polish,Bulgarian and Romanian

    Poles and Romanians in Hotel in Ballyliffin (FFS!)–also on reception desk in Central in Donegal Town and the Grand Malahide
    What happened to the locals?

  • Morpheus

    Jaysus Greenflag, we should all top ourselves now and be done with it eh 🙂

  • toaster

    Most of the births will have been catholic and most of the (student) exodus protestant. The six counties’ days are numbered…

  • Morpheus

    “Most of the births will have been catholic and most of the (student) exodus protestant.”

    And that conclusion is based on..?

  • DoppiaVu

    “most of the births etc.”

    It’s idiotic, unsubstantiated nonsense like this which is making slugger a real chore these days.

  • paulG

    Brian

    “Only a small fraction of the country’s higher population is now due to foreign immigration.”

    With 50% of babies born to foreign born mothers in London and the South East (25 % nationally), that sentence is a bit mis-leading.

    Regarding the 300,000 reputed to have left the Republic in the last 4 years, compared to the Govt Stats of approx. 25,000 Irish nationals, per year, it is possible that the remaining 200,000 were foreigners (mostly Polish) who went to work and then left without taking Irish citizenship. (Though I would have thought half that number would be closer to the mark )

  • cynic2

    “They are hardly going to come back to tie a flag to a lamp-post are they?”

    Or steal one to stick on a bonfire at Divis last night

  • cynic2

    “The six counties’ days are numbered…”

    Sadly the polls all seem to show that m,any of the Catholics born here are born into the wrong type of Catholic families ie where their parents will vote to remain in the UK. Dont count your chickens. they are more orange than green!

  • cynic2

    Greenflag

    I am puzzled at the pessimistic tone. What is so wrong with emigration or immigration?

    Do you yearn for some sort of pastoral Irish idyll? We live in a great big interconnected world. Jobs move. So do people. The life-cycle of products shortens and people follow the work and along the way develop more and wore of a world thing. That’s a two way street.

    So what. Its a great big happy world and good luck to them. they should explore and exploit all those opportunities. To desire to keep them at home.tied to Mammy’s apron strings is nonsense.

    This is not the 18th Century, We have phones and skype and great big airplanes that whisk people even to Australia in 23 hours so ease off on the hand-wringing

  • FDM

    The below taken from “Demographic Change and Conflict in Northern Ireland: Reconciling Qualitative and Quantitative Evidence” (2011) Kaufmann, E.

    “In housing, health care, education and government employment, Protestants disproportionately benefited while Catholics disproportionately emigrated. Work permits for Irish migrants from the south were directed toward southern Protestants and away from Catholics, whom the Unionists suspected as a fifth column bent on the ‘peaceful penetration’ of the North. (Patterson and Kaufmann 2007, ch., 1)”

    Emigration from Northern Ireland between 1937 and 1971, during the glory years of unionist rule.

    Catholics 268,000
    Protestants 106,200

    Above figures taken from “A study of the existing sources of information and analysis about Irish emigrants and Irish communities abroad”, (2002) Walter, B., Gray, B., Dowling, L. and Morgan, S.

    Remembering also that Catholics made up around a third of the population in NI at those times, it actually means that Catholics were by proportion 5 [FIVE] times more likely to leave our unionist utopia than protestants.

    It would be interesting to see what the split was now. I know that the local Universities have tended to draw more from the local Catholic community in recent years, much to the chagrin of unionist politicians.

    Local graduates tend to stay locally if they can. When working at QUB I think the stat was that 98% of Queen’s graduates remained in NI after graduating. That particular statistic was a real surprise to me. I would say that if people went overseas to study they are more likely to stay away than return.

    So the brain drain may acutally be disproportionate also between the two main community groupings here.

  • Brian Walker

    I accept that I was wrong to say that “ foreign immigration” although declining accounts for only a “small fraction “ of the UK population increase. Too rushed sorry. Also of course that outwards migration is emigration, not immigration. However I’d love to have the straightforward like- for- like migration stats and profiles of NI and RoI compared. They’re bound to exist but I haven’t found them in an admittedly quick trawl. Anyone who knows, please comment or post!

    I would also expect that the brain drain at 16-18 plus may dry up somewhat due to cheaper uni and other third level costs at home. But will it pick up again when they go looking for jobs?.

  • Greenflag

    Cynic 2,

    ‘I am puzzled at the pessimistic tone. ‘

    If you are puzzled that’s .because you are mistaking realism for pessimism .

    ‘What is so wrong with emigration or immigration?’

    ‘Wrong ‘ ? Who said ‘wrong’ ?

    Both are like arsenic. In small doses they can be a tonic in larger doses they can be either invigorating and debilitating , for both host and countries of origin . In very large doses they can be disruptive and lead to major economic and socio cultural problems within societies which can in turn lead to political instability with extremists , racists , xenophobes and ultra nationalists using and abusing ‘immigrants ‘ for their political agendas.

    ‘the life-cycle of products shortens”

    Apparently along with attention span deficit syndrome.

    ‘Its a great big happy world ‘

    Tell that to the Syrians , Palestinians , Iranians , North Koreans , Egyptians , Favela denizens from Rio De Janeiro to the shantytowns of Capetown , Johannesbur, Mumbai , Hyderabad etc etc .

    ‘To desire to keep them at home.tied to Mammy’s apron strings is nonsense.’

    Again you puzzle yourself . Being tied to ‘mammy’s apron strings ‘ is a phenomenon often levelled at Unionists in relation to their utter dependency on HMG’s Exchequer .

    However it is now a worldwide phenomenon seen in Italy ,Japan , and even the USA and by this I don’t mean any desire on the part of mammies everywhere to keep their young adults at home .

    The economic facts of life brought about by globalisation among other factors has resullted in very large numbers of young people being forced to stay at home given the lack of economic opportunities . In Italy I believe some 30% of adults in their 30’s remain in their parents home . In the USA several million ‘graduates ‘ return to their parents homes because they are unable to start independent lives or must postpone them for a decade or more .

    ‘This is not the 18th Century,’

    Very perceptive but as you raised the subject in a kind of a way ’emigration wise ‘ it still is .

    Although emigration from Ireland and England began in the 16th century it was not significant in terms of numbers .Things speeded up in the 17th century with the opening up of the sugar trade and the Americas . The 18th century saw the first mass migration from Ireland and it was predominantly from Ulster (1720’s through 1760’s ) approx .Some 250,000 are estimated to have left for America in response to famine , religious discrimination and general hardship in the little ice age (1600-1800) and opportunity. Emigration to Britain was undocumented but it’s estimated that up to 400,000 Irish may have already been domiciled in England by 1750 . Later came the mass migration of a ‘million ‘ to the Americas and further afield in the 1840’s . A total of some 4 million Irish are estimated to have left for the Americas in the period 1700 to 1900 . It’s possible that if we include both Northern Ireland and the Republic that up to 400,000 may have left over the past 6 years in the wake of the current financial sector engineered meltdown.

    The Irish ‘demographic ‘ experience is unique in Europe in the 1800 to 2000 period .What makes it unique is the huge number of people it has sent out to the world in comparison to the numbers left behind . Most of this ’emigration ‘ took place at a time when the Irish lived under Westminster jurisdiction and were subjects of the British King/Queen . Some 9 to 10 million Britons are also estimated to have left during that period .

    ‘ease off on the hand-wringing’

    ????

    There are on the planet in 2013 some 200 million people living and resident in countries other than the one they were born in . Many of these are refugees from wars instigated by outside powers

    Immigrants can be abused by indigenes and even in Ireland that is not unknown .

    http://www.rte.ie/news/2013/0809/467198-immigrant-council-of-ireland-violence-abuse/

    http://www.rte.ie/news/2013/0729/465178-immigrants-citizenship/

  • Barnshee

    “The population continues to rise but so does the brain drain”

    Its called feedback The example quoted by my Biology Teacher all those years ago was Rabbits and Grass.

    Lots of grass- rabbit population increases (exponentially?) producing too many rabbits for the grass available Rabbits starve down and die off to sustainable level or “emigrate”. Then repeat ad nauseam

    Humans (allegedly at the top of the animal kingdom) appear to follow the same pattern
    What excuse do they have ?

  • ForkHandles

    Emigrating was the best decision I have made in many years. Advice for any young’uns reading. Get your CV together and pack your bags and head off to better parts of the world. There are many many places where life is much better than staying in the UK/ROI or Europe.
    The type of life you can have in places like the US, UAE, OZ, Singapore and other parts of Asia where the economy is doing well, is amazing. You can fly home a couple of times a year and not miss anything. UK/ROI expats are everywhere and tend to hang about together, so you’ll make friends in no time. I even have a few Norn Iron friends.

    Doo it, Doo it !

  • Old Mortality

    FDM
    ‘Remembering also that Catholics made up around a third of the population in NI at those times, it actually means that Catholics were by proportion 5 [FIVE] times more likely to leave our unionist utopia than protestants.’

    You need to bear in mind that Catholic families during this period were gigantic. Even in the seventies, double-digit families, were far from unusual, and the Cathoic population was more concentrated in areas where employment levels were generally lower.
    There were also much lower levels of public sector employment.
    A more pertinent comparison would be with emigration from the RoI.

  • Greenflag

    @ Barnshee

    Rabbits are not human beings nor vice versa .

    @ Forkhandles – Good for you . I’ve been an expat also on three continents and enjoyed the experience – but the time of ‘expats ‘ is coming to an end . The developing countries are increasingly becoming less dependent on the ‘expats ‘ apart from those locations where people are paid a premium due to unstable political conditions or other circumstances .

    The main point is that it’s not an option for the vast majority of young people in Northern Ireland or elsewhere in the developed industrial world . For those who have marketable skills or professional qualifications the the door will remain open for a while yet ..

    As a forerunner of things to come some 80% of pharmaceutical /Chemistry graduates in the world are being
    ‘produced ‘ in China .

    .

  • Barnshee

    Barnshee

    Rabbits are not human beings nor vice versa .”

    Then why do they behave in a similar manner?

  • cynic2

    Greenflag

    I agree with a lot of what you say but not the overlying analysis. Forgive me but can I borrow phrase from John O Dowd – “So what”

    It is a big globalized world, it will be more and more globalized as our races mix and distance becomes less relevant and cultures meld> that in my view is a great thing. SO I see immigration generally as socilaly and politically irredeemably positive in the long run

  • BluesJazz

    This is an article from the ‘good old days’ before the recession when unemployment was 4% and everything was rosy:

    http://www.managementtoday.co.uk/news/542849/Northern-Ireland—bright-new-future/?DCMP=ILC-SEARCH

    Just sayin’ like.

  • BluesJazz

    That was over 7 years ago, the only optimism was to Seagate in Limavady..oops.
    Of course no more Celtic Tiger down south, but locally, the Treasury subvention has doubled since then, and can be located in civil service land North Down/Carrickfergus.

    Some day, soon, someone in Wolverhampton or Blackburn is going to say:
    “Can we get the same as Northern Ireland?”

  • Kevsterino

    Barnshee, I can understand why a Biology professor would use that explanation for migration, but you would not hear that from an economics professor. At least, not a good one.

  • FuturePhysicist

    Absolutely, Northern Ireland is a worse place to live than the Republic of Ireland, a lot of those emigrating the North are going to the Republic for high skilled jobs. Private Sector without retail in Northern Ireland is very weak, and particularly recruitment services are poor.

  • Barnshee

    “Barnshee, I can understand why a Biology professor would use that explanation for migration, but you would not hear that from an economics professor. At least, not a good one.”

    Every economics “professor” uses the ultimate feed back example –The law ofsupply and demand

    ( eg examine the effect of migration on supply and demand

    -but then if ignorance is bliss Slgger is one of the best places to see it in action

  • Greenflag

    @ Cynic 2 ,

    ‘I agree with a lot of what you say but not the overlying analysis.’

    Analysis ? What analysis ? The above was just a listing of facts /in relation to the Irish demographic experience

    As to the so what ? I’ll take it you are human and thus subject to ‘demographic experience ‘ At the very least you are a number in the census .You live in a society which happens to be made of people ,lots of people -unless you are a native of Rockall 😉 No man nor woman is an island and we are all both on this island and the neighbouring island and in the wider world much more dependent on one another than was ever the case in the past . This is just one aspect of ‘globalisation ‘

    ‘It is a big globalized world, it will be more and more globalized ‘

    Perhaps but not necessarily or even desirably in it’s present format or current malfunctioning as it creates huge imbalances both within and between nation states and trading partners and national currencies .

    The first age of globalization was in the 1870 through 1914. It was during that period that the British & French Empires reached their zeniths and Germany , the USA & Japan began to emerge as would be economic challengers to the industrial , financial and trading might of the earlier imperial powers.

    That age of globalization ended with some 100 million deaths in WWI and the resultant WW2 and the follow on anti colonial power wars on Vietnam and in Africa up to the 1980’s.

    So ‘globalization ‘ is not necessarily in itself a good thing . It can have negative as well as positive impacts both on individuals and states and people’s economic well being . Look around at some after effects of the present ‘globalization ‘ . Go to the English north East , the German Ruhr valley , Detroit , the older Mid West cities in the USA etc etc .Greece ? Spain ? etc

    We forget that the current ‘globalization ‘ period really began in the aftermath of World War 2 with the establishment of the OECD , GATT and the EEC.

    The Bretton Woods Agreement gave some stability to world trade and moreover currency stability up to the 1970’s at which point it began to unravel for many reasons .

    The ‘ideological ‘ neo con revolution instigated by among others Mrs Thatcher and held up as a model for economic growth initially impacted the manufacturing sectors of the industrialised economies . Countries around the world were pressured into opening up their markets for not just western products but in particular post 1990 for western ‘financial ‘services .

    No thought was given to the impact globalization would have on the living standards of the middle and working classes in the west . The simple mantra was trade is good more trade is better and laissez faire will rise all boats .Famously this ‘idiocy ‘ reached it’s apex of economist popularity with the publication of Friedman’s ‘The World is Flat ‘ Now many economists are looking at some of the more optimistic naive credos of the so called ‘free marketeers ‘and discovering that the market is not so ‘free ‘ after all and that there are major downsides to globalization .

    The last 7/8 years have shown that the simple belief that globalization can only be good is much mistaken . Of course it has helped in some developing countries but others have been reduced to conflict and civil wars and mass unemployment as the ‘dark side ‘ of globalised financial services wreaks havoc on societies from Sub Saharan Africa to South east Asia and now increasingly even within western societies .

    If one looks at the financial crises faced by some 20 countries since the 1970’s one common theme emerges . In all of those countries it’s the bulk of the people who have their living standard reduced or who are starved or forced into homelessness or revolution or civil war or mass unemployment . And all of this by imprimatur of the IMF and/or WTO or the ECB or USA Fed Reserve etc with elected politicians everywhere now increasingly seen as unable or unwilling to execute the necessary reforms to ‘globalization ‘ and in particular in international ‘financial services ‘ and currency matters .

    Everywhere however it’s the people’s ‘fault ‘ for being ‘irresponsible ‘ or it’s their elected politicians fault for overspending .And while that is true in some cases there is almost a complete silence or should I say no debate at all on the ‘irresponsibility ‘ of lenders .

    Post world war 2 the Germans were indebted to 675 % of their GDP .Compare that with the current Greek 160% or Japan’s 200% ? . Had the German debt not been written off until it reached just 15% of GDP the German ‘economic miracle ‘ would not have happened The Greeks with 67% unemployment among their population aged 18 to 25 will never be able to repay their entire debt .

    I guess we’ll have to wait and see what German Kanzlerin Merkel does if/when she is re-elected in September. Hopefully there will be moves to write off much of the debt incurred by economies throughout Europe and that ‘international investors ‘ will have to accept that they will not be getting their full ‘debt ‘ repaid’

    More important than even that is the need for a reform of international finance which allows more flexibility to countries in tackling the issues /problems aggravated by what is called ‘globalization ‘ and may even consider the possibility of countries to declare ‘bankruptcy ‘ and start again just as individuals do ? After all why should the ‘majority ‘ of people living in particular countries have to suffer unduly simply because a minority of their population e,g irresponsible banksters , corrupt politicians and international currency and financial speculators have gone ‘apeshit ‘ ??

    In the 1970’s btw at the height of the petro dollar glut when banks where awash with money and could’nt lend it out fast enough the Chairman of Citibank who was well connected with the Nixon & Ford administrations quickly loaned the excess petro dollars to several nations in Africa and South America ‘

    ‘Countries don’t go bust ‘ he asserted .

    UNICEF estimated that more than half a million children died in South America and Africa every year in the late 1980’s as a direct result of the then debt crisis and it’s lack of quick resolution .

    The ‘debt crisis ‘ in Europe and the USA is and has led to another kind of starvation in modern times -i.e job and private sector investment ‘starvation ‘

    If Northern Ireland were a country it would be ‘bust ‘ Greece is ‘bust ‘ but neither the Greeks nor the Eurozone will admit it because there is no mechanism in place for either Greece or any other country in the world to ‘unbust ‘ itself without a descent into chaos and /or political revolution resulting in who knows what ‘extreme factions ‘ taking power?

  • Greenflag

    @Barnshee ,

    ‘Every economics “professor” uses the ultimate feed back example –The law of supply and demand-

    The demand for food did not exceed the supply of food in the 1840’s in Ireland despite the ‘potato ‘ famine . Food which could have saved a million lives was exported under ‘armed guard ‘ to the neighbouring island .

    The same happened in India in the 19th century with the loss of 27 million lives .

    The living standard of modern Egyptians is constrained by the supply of billions of dollars of armaments including thousands of tanks and jet fighters to meet the demands of a few generals while Egyptians need jobs and democracy .

    Heres a listing of how the economists law of supply and demand relates to the market place for dead bodies 🙁

    http://necrometrics.com/

  • Barnshee

    “The demand for food did not exceed the supply of food in the 1840′s in Ireland despite the ‘potato ‘ famine . Food which could have saved a million lives was exported under ‘armed guard ‘ to the neighbouring island .”

    Oh dear ignorance is bliss but if you want the real deal there is no better place than Slugger

    Economists( for that is what we are talking about) refer to effective demand–essentially the ability to pay .

    Demand refers to how much (quantity) of a product or service is desired by buyers. The quantity demanded is the amount of a product people are willing to buy at a certain price

    .I might very well “want” a new a top of the range Mercedes E but I cannot afford it. I am thus not in the market for a new Merc.I am not part of what Economists call “demand.”

    http://www.investopedia.com/university/economics/economics3.asp

    Hint Try exploring the reasons for demand deficiencies.

  • Greenflag

    ‘Economists( for that is what we are talking about) refer to effective demand–essentially the ability to pay .’

    Aha so thats what the problem is ? I’d never have thought it . Of course there have been times when even people with the ability to pay cannot be supplied with ‘bread ‘ ‘An example from the 1920’s when former middle class Germans found that it was easier to steal a loaf of bread on the streets than to pay one trillion Reich Marks .

    But full marks for the obvious . If you remain a student of economics long enough you may even graduate with a degree in common sense ? You may favour ‘excess ” people (surplus to demand requirements ) starving by the million or more if they can’t pay for food . If this is because economy has been exploited of it’s natural resources by foreign imperialists or beset by natural disasters or man made financial crises brought about by financial speculators and neo con criminals then thats just the law of supply and demand in action in pursuit of it’s natural ‘feedback ‘ mechanism ?

    Economic’s is not a science and it’s laws are like the bible -they can be interpreted to suit the selfish interests of the haves be they neo con financial imperialists of the current age or Victorian era advocates of child labour in those satanic mills .

    One of the main reasons for current demand deficiency which is slowing up prospects of economic recovery in the USA and EU is the fact that a very large number of people are without employment due to the failure of ‘capitalism ‘ to create jobs and many of those who have jobs haven’t had real wage increases for a decade and of course millions have had whatever meagre savings they held ‘looted ‘ by the financial institutions which were bailed out by the ‘people’s government via their taxes .

    While I sympathise with your straitened circumstances in being unable to afford a top of the range Mercedes E -I’d offer you one of mine but alas it’s been promised to a friend who’s touring this part of the country 😉

    Anyway I’d be worried that you might ‘eat ‘ it 😉

    .

  • Barnshee

    “. If you remain a student of economics long enough you may even graduate with a degree in common sense ? You may favour ‘excess ” people (surplus to demand requirements ) starving by the million or more if they can’t pay for food ”

    Sadly my graduation(s) are long behind me.

    I can only commend further research on your part.

    I recommend areas such as

    The impact of government policy on manufacturing and agriculture output.

    “Economic’s is not a science and it’s laws are like the bible -they can be interpreted to suit the selfish interests of the haves be they neo con financial imperialists of the current age or Victorian era advocates of child labour in those satanic mills”

    Examine the impact on the labour market of an excess supply of workers.- You might like to consider that had there been fewer workers available competition would force the employer to pay more

    “the fact that a very large number of people are without employment due to the failure of ‘capitalism ‘ to create job”

    Hardly- modest reductions in wage rates for those above median earnings in the public sector would allow governments to “create jobs” Try and sell that one.

    “capitalism” or “business ” requires profits to justify expenditure —If capitalism cannot make a profit on “creating jobs” then “capitalism” will not play ball. This is an unfortunate fact of life. The jobs lost in the USA exist—– in China India and Eastern Europe. There is now surplus labour in the USA. This is not as a result of “favouring excess people” .

    You can not repeal the laws of supply and demand –the most that Governments can do is to try to ameliorate the effects of the law.

  • Expat

    Barnshee

    You are upholding the virtues of a perfect market, when none has ever existed partly by reason of the unequal wealth and power to manipulate and distort its operation that the market itself confers on those who benefit from it most. Furthermore, in the best of market circumstances aggregate demand may not rise to the level necessary to employ all available resources. Also, such demand as there is may not evenly be dispersed, leaving vast areas barely touched by economic activity – large populations living at agricultural subsistence levels still exist in many parts of the globe even when such areas may be rich in mineral wealth that is being exploited.

    The market system may leave millions starving while the food and natural materials upon which they have a claim of ownership are expropriated – in the Irish case, being exported in a time of famine. I think the point is that markets do not express the extent of human need but, rather, the desires of those with the where-with-all to purchase. They are a reflection of the wealth and power relations of a globalized world at particular moments in time.

  • Greenflag

    Expat .

    Indeed .

    @ Barnshee ,

    Man is also a political as well as an economic animal and while it may seem that Governments can only ameliorate the effects of the law -the history of economic growth in many of the East Asian emerging economies shows that government investment and policy making skewed the’natural ‘ laws of supply and demand to such an extent that these societies are close to and some have exceeded both in incomes and living standards those countries where ‘supply and demand ‘ has been allowed to have it’s own way without much government intervention .

    The market system despite some idealised notions of how it operates in the real world remains the option of choice for most people for good reasons.

    In the ‘ideal ‘ free market economy you should be able to purchase a now expensive diamond for 5% of it’s present market value .

    The reason you can’t is because the Botswanan and Russian Governments and the De Beers Corporation ensure that only a limited supply of diamonds are allowed to adorn the shelves of jewellers everywhere from 42nd street in New York to Shanghai .

    I’m sure the demand for diamonds would explode if De Beers opened up the other two diamond mines they own in Botswana but choose not to supply to the market .

    Ditto for may other products not excluding the supply of thousands of jet fighters and tanks to Saudi Arabia , Egypt and Israel by western arms manufacturers . And the Oil Cartel Opec and soon enough ‘food ‘ and ‘water ‘ may become ‘controlled ‘ supply centres which will generate another century of wars:(

  • Barnshee

    Well done chaps you new grasp of Economic Theory the market (and its distortions by power groups)is excellent. I can sign off with a sigh of contentment