No Matter Who Wins, the Palestinians Lose.

There are few foreign countries whose elections are of interest to us. We don’t follow the elections in Japan or Greece or Mexico all that much. We do follow those in France and in Germany given the impact they can have on us due to proximity and their importance to the European project. And we are most definitely keenly watching the upcoming elections in the United States as many folks are hoping that President Trump is politically crippled by the results (at least domestically; I dread to think what that portends for the international stage where he will have a freer hand and more latitude). But there is an election tomorrow that I feel we should all be paying attention to.

Those in Israel, set for the 27^th October. Whether the Israelis regard it as fair or not, their country has become one of the fulcrums of global geopolitics with the result that the outcome will have ramifications for the rest of us.

The Israelis use a proportional representation, closed-list system for their elections. People vote by party, not by candidate, and the make-up of the Knesset is determined by the proportion of the vote that party receives so long as they clear a minimum threshold regarding their vote share. The party then fills their share of seats in the Knesset from a pre-determined list. The more seats a party gets, the more folks on the list (who are typically ordered in terms of priority of whom the party wishes to get into the legislature) become MKs.

After that, the horse trading begins as the multiple parties, represented the fragmented Israeli electorate, haggle over the formation of a government. A coalition that achieves the magical number of 61 out of 120 seats earns the right to choose the Prime Minister and forms the government.

It is the fate of the current Israeli Prime Minister and indicted war criminal Benjamin Netanyahu that so transfixes the rest of us. This man has effectively dominated Israeli politics for the guts of three decades, driven by his mission to ensure Israeli dominance over all the lands that once constituted mandatory Palestine and to bury any prospect of a two-state solution.

In pursuit of that goal he has done everything he can to support the settlement project in the West Bank to displace the Palestinians living there, he has attempted to keep the Palestinians split for fear of the emergence of a single leader who could cut a deal (it’s easy to say you have no partner for peace when you are ensuring that is the case) and he has systematically attacked the Palestinian Authority at every opportunity to ensure it never develops into anything even approaching a proto-Palestinian state.

Furthermore, to keep himself in power and thus avoid accountability for several ongoing corruption scandals for which he is on trial, he has empowered what many would regard as some of the most racist elements in Israeli society, groups who not too long ago would have been considered beyond the pale. These groups were in power on the morning of the October 7^th atrocity, and the scale of that assault allowed them to indulge their darkest impulses by unleashing the genocide of the Palestinian population of Gaza.

Collectively, the Israeli government has disgraced themselves and their nation in the eyes of the world, avoiding the full fury of the international community only because they shelter beneath the immense diplomatic shield of the United States whose stern threats of retaliation against those who would deign to hold the Israeli government accountable for its actions stays the hands of almost everyone else. Only recently have some countries been taking even the most basic of actions, such as recognizing the state of Palestine or sanctioning goods produced in illegal Israeli settlements. None of that has produced a change in Israeli behaviour.

This means that at this moment, only the Israeli people themselves can hold Netanyahu accountable. Most voters won’t hold him accountable for the genocide of course. Israeli society has great difficulty accepting that a genocide has occurred. They frame the devastation visited upon Gaza in terms of what happened on October 7^th, their own need for security in the aftermath and their own belief that they are being singled out unfairly by the international community for condemnation.

If the Israelis are going to hold Netanyahu accountable for anything it will be for the failings on October 7^th itself with some reports in recent weeks indicating he was told in the days leading up to the attack that something big was brewing in Gaza. He has refused to establish an enquiry into what happened that day, arguing that it would be a witch-hunt against him and biased.

It will be for how he has managed Israel’s growing isolation and pariah status in the world…which of course is viewed as the government failing to portray the Israeli side of the story effectively rather than Israel being demonstrably in the wrong.

It will be for how he took his country to war with Iran and failed to achieve victory over the Islamic Republic in spite of having years to prepare.

It will be for how he empowered the far-right in his country and allowed them to assault the institutions of the state such as the Supreme Court.

It will be for how he has refused to tackle one of the greatest social crises his country faces, the growing numbers of the ultra-Orthodox Haredi who refuse to participate in the economic life of the country, who are exempted from the national military service imposed on everyone else and who expect government handouts to sustain their way of life. Netanyahu is dependent on the votes of parties representing this community even as the rest of Israeli seethes against their privileges.

But it won’t be for the genocide. It won’t be for the tens of thousands dead just down the road from Tel Aviv.

At the moment the polls seem neck and neck between Netanyahu and the opposing coalition led by Gadi Eisenkot, the man who will be Israel’s next Prime Minister if they manage to out poll Netanyahu.

Eisenkot is no peacenik, and the best that can be expected from any government led by him is that the genocide may end, but he will certainly provide no political horizon for the Palestinians or a promise for an end to the conflict. I am sure those more familiar with Israeli politics could offer a nuanced take on why Eisenkot could offer a material improvement in circumstances and a lowering on tensions but does anyone really care anymore?

I think globally we have crossed something of a rubicon though where tolerance for Israel’s continued oppression of the Palestinian population has been exhausted, and any Israeli who thinks we can return to the status quo ante wherein a blind eye was turned so long as that oppression was only extremely inhumane rather completely inhumane is in for a rude awakening.

The costs of their occupation will ramp up in the years to come, of that I am sure, but I am also certain they will race to establish facts on the ground in advance of the moment when the international community finally manages to make the situation Israel faces unbearable and their resolve to maintain the occupation cracks.

In other words, from the outside, the choice is between different degrees of horror for the Palestinians. The sole sliver of hope I hold is that this may be the election we finally say goodbye to Netanyahu, a man who has led his country into the depths of darkness. Without the office of Prime Minister to protect him, the courts will finally have their say…though on those corruption charges mentioned earlier, not on the genocide lest you think he was going to be held accountable for THAT.