SDLP Conference: Can the official opposition convert fair conditions into a strong performance?

The SDLP have the wind in their sails heading into their party conference in Belfast this weekend. According to the latest figures from LucidTalk, the party is polling at 13%, their highest support in five years, up from 9% at the last election in 2022. Claire Hanna MP is the most popular party leader in the north, with an approval rating of 50%, rising to 63% among nationalists and 64% among Alliance/Green voters.

These figures reflect the party’s strong performance as the Official Opposition at Stormont. Led by Matthew O’Toole MLA in the Assembly, the party has done an admirable job scrutinising Executive policy and developing constructive alternatives, with limited resources afforded to the opposition. They have published a series of policy papers with real alternative proposals, covering big picture issues like housing, the environment and regional balance, to more wonkish topics like improving Stormont’s budget and spending.

By contrast, the Executive as a whole is very unpopular (just 34% approval), and support for rival nationalist party Sinn Féin has slumped to 22%, down from 31% at the last election.

In these fair conditions, one might expect it to be smooth sailing for the SDLP to increase their number of Assembly seats next May. How, taking a look at specific constituencies, it is difficult to chart a course to more than a couple of gains.

In Belfast North, the party will be hoping to regain the seat held by former deputy leader Nichola Mallon. However, Sinn Féin are reportedly planning to run three candidates in the area for the first time, and had more than two quotas last time out. In fact, it looks like the SDLP may be defending against a more ambitious Sinn Féin strategy in several constituencies, such as Foyle, and South Down, despite how the two parties are faring in the polls.

The party’s hopes of taking a seat in Belfast West were likely dashed when high-profile councillor Paul Doherty resigned from the party, who now plans to run as an independent. In Newry and Armagh, it was reported that sitting MLA Justin McNulty is in a “selection battle” with Councillor Pete Byrne – which suggests the local organisation is not optimistic about taking a second seat there.

The best chance of a current MLA bringing in a running mate is probably Matthew O’Toole in Belfast South and Mid Down, which is also Claire Hanna’s Westminster constituency. And the party is targeting a win in Strangford, where boundary changes have brought in enough nationalist votes to where a new seat is up for grabs between the SDLP and Sinn Féin.

If the party does make a breakthrough and make a net gain of at least one seat, it will face a difficult choice as to whether it will take the Executive position that it would be entitled to. They have grown into their role in Opposition, and might feel they can be more impactful from the outside, rather than holding just one ministry. If they do re-enter the Executive, it will expose them to the same criticisms they have levelled at the other parties around lack of delivery and long-term thinking.

One thing to watch for in Claire Hanna’s conference speech next weekend will be whether she sets out any “red lines” for the SDLP going back into the powersharing administration, specifically around reform of the institutions. She has called for the UK and Irish Governments to initiate talks, noting that there is broad agreement on issues such as electing an Assembly Speaker, ending Executive vetoes, and preventing one party from unilaterally collapsing the institutions.

We can also expect Hanna to reiterate calls for both national governments to plan and prepare for a border poll and a united Ireland, or a “New Ireland” as the party prefers. Hanna was measured in her response to Andy Burnham’s comment that a referendum is “off the table”, saying the Prime Minister was right to say that Brexit divided people.

These positions illustrate the SDLP’s peculiar place in Northern Irish politics. They are committed institutionalists, true to the tradition of social democracy, yet find themselves outside the Executive and discontented with devolved governance. But still, they lean towards the incrementalist position on the Irish unity debate, not yet ready to demand a vote on the constitutional future of the North. There are signs that voters find this steady-hand-on-the-tiller approach appealing, but the party will have to show it has a destination in mind if it is to make a real breakthrough.

Finn McGrath is a Senior Account Executive with Chambré.