Are Stormont’s Voters Losing Patience?

One opinion poll should never be confused with an election result. Nevertheless, the latest LucidTalk figures deserve more than the usual few days of party spin and selective interpretation, because they may be capturing something deeper: a growing public frustration with Stormont itself.

The DUP’s fall to 15 per cent will inevitably dominate the headlines. Given the turmoil surrounding the party, that result is hardly surprising. But concentrating entirely on the DUP risks missing the more important political story.

Sinn Féin is also down, in fact a bigger percentage drop than the DUP! And Alliance, the party that saw its MLA team increase hugely in 2022 is down to a position where it would seem that the party bounce is well and truly over!? The three parties that emerged most strongly from the 2022 Assembly election have all lost support.

That raises an uncomfortable question. Are voters beginning to lose patience not simply with individual parties, but with a system of government that appears increasingly incapable of delivering noticeable improvement in their lives?

Northern Ireland’s problems are hardly hidden. Health waiting lists remain intolerable. Schools are under enormous pressure. Roads are deteriorating. Water infrastructure is restricting housing and economic development. Community organisations and councils are being asked to do more with less, while major reforms are repeatedly discussed, consulted upon and postponed.

Stormont responds with strategies, reviews, working groups, announcements and carefully worded commitments. Yet, for many people, very little seems to change.

The public is entitled to ask a straightforward question: what has Stormont actually delivered?

Not announced. Not promised. Not put out for consultation. Delivered.

This is where the falls in support for Sinn Féin and Alliance become particularly interesting. Sinn Féin has built much of its appeal around discipline, competence and being ready for government, not least to prove to its Southern electorate that it could DO government and be a viable alternative to the FF/FG incumbents. Alliance has presented itself as the sensible, modern alternative to the traditional parties. Non sectarian, not bogged down by the constitutional question, in fact “above” all the rest in terms of focus on the real issues! Both now hold senior positions within the Executive, and both must therefore accept that they will be judged by the performance of that Executive. That is the price of power.

Sinn Féin cannot indefinitely behave as though every failure belongs to another minister, another department or another party or as is frequently suggested by their supporters, by the intransigence of the DUP. Nor can Alliance continue to portray itself as a detached critic of the system while simultaneously occupying important positions within it. Both in government and opposition at one and the same time.

You cannot sit around the Executive table, accept the ministerial titles and issue the press releases, yet continue to campaign as though you were merely an interested observer.

The public may finally be growing tired of that contradiction.

The poll does not necessarily suggest that voters are abandoning their constitutional identities. In fact, much of the movement appears to be taking place within the existing political traditions. Unionist voters are shifting between the DUP, UUP and TUV. Nationalist voters may be reconsidering the balance between Sinn Féin, the SDLP and Aontú. Some Alliance supporters may be looking towards the Greens, the SDLP, moderate unionism or simply staying at home.

This may not be a great constitutional realignment. It may be something more practical and, for the established parties, more dangerous.

Voters may simply be searching for someone capable of governing.

That creates an obvious opportunity for the UUP and SDLP, but neither should mistake improving poll figures for a full restoration of public confidence. Both parties once dominated their respective communities and both subsequently lost that position. They will not recover merely by waiting for voters to become disappointed with everyone else.

They must offer credible leadership, serious policies and representatives capable of understanding the decisions placed before them.

That brings us to an issue political parties are rarely willing to confront honestly: the quality of the candidates they place before the electorate.

Too often, candidate selection seems to be treated as a seat-filling exercise. A party wants a name on the ballot paper, so somebody is found. Loyalty is rewarded. Internal factions are balanced. Long service is recognised. The person chosen may be dependable, obedient and willing to repeat the approved party message, but that does not necessarily make them capable of representing the public.

Councillors and MLAs make decisions involving public services, planning, regeneration, infrastructure and hundreds of millions of pounds of public money. Yet the electorate is sometimes presented with candidates who show little evidence of understanding public finance, complex policy or even the basic responsibilities of the office they are seeking. This is no longer good enough.

Political parties cannot complain about cynicism while treating elected office as a reward for loyalty or availability. They cannot demand respect for democratic institutions while selecting candidates whose main qualification is that they will follow instructions and vote the correct way.

The public deserves representatives with judgement, competence, curiosity and sufficient independence of mind to challenge their own party when necessary.

Parties choose these people. Parties endorse them. Parties provide the brand, money and election machinery that often gets them elected. They must therefore accept responsibility when the quality of representation falls far below what the public has a right to expect.

This matters even more because, if the LucidTalk figures were reflected in 2027, the next Assembly could be extraordinarily fragmented.

Sinn Féin might remain the largest party, but with fewer seats. The UUP and DUP could find themselves in a close contest to become the largest unionist party. The SDLP could return as a significant Assembly force. The TUV could secure a sizeable group of MLAs, while Alliance could lose much of the ground it gained in 2022.

Such an Assembly would carry obvious risks. A stronger TUV presence could make compromise within unionism more difficult. The contest between the UUP and DUP could create further instability over who speaks for unionism and who nominates the deputy First Minister. Several parties might enter the Executive while continuing to behave as though they were in opposition.

Northern Ireland could end up with more parties exercising influence, but even less collective responsibility. That, in itself would be perilous, a potential disaster.

Yet fragmentation does not have to mean paralysis. It could also force overdue change. A strengthened UUP or SDLP might decide that Northern Ireland would benefit more from a serious opposition than from another party squeezing itself around the Executive table in pursuit of ministerial office.

Greater competition could force parties to defend their records rather than rely upon constitutional fear. It might encourage voters to judge candidates by their competence and effectiveness rather than simply by the badge beside their name.

For years, Stormont’s dominant parties have operated on the assumption that identity will ultimately outweigh performance. No matter how little is delivered, voters will return to their traditional camps when election day arrives.

This poll suggests that assumption may be becoming less secure.

People are not demanding miracles. They understand the financial pressures facing public services and the complexity of governing Northern Ireland. But they are entitled to expect functioning services, credible ministers, capable representatives and some clear sense that decisions are being taken and implemented.

Above all, they want politicians who understand that winning an election is not the achievement.

Delivering something afterwards is.

The latest poll may not yet represent a revolt against Stormont. But it does look like a warning.

Public patience is wearing thin. I’ve been around long enough to have seen some false dawns, and my cynicism can be my overwhelming emotion, but even I can have hope that we can see changes emerging that promise some positive outcomes.