Goodbye to Leinster and Ireland Rugby Excellence?

With many Ulster fans pleased with an uptick in their province’s performances on the rugby pitch in reaching the final of the Challenge cup and providing eight players to the Irish rugby team that beat Japan last time out, they may be less than concerned that the fortunes of their main rival, Leinster, seem to be heading in the opposite direction. But Leinster’s recent victory in the URC final may have disguised a number of alarming developments at the province which may herald a decline in Leinster’s (and Ireland’s) performances on the rugby pitch.

Many Leinster fans are convinced that David Humphreys, the IRFU Director of Performance, is intent on destroying the Leinster rugby brand, identity, and level of performance. Under his watch eight senior professionals, including six experienced test players are leaving the province. This includes James Lowe, who played as often for Ireland and the Lions as he did for Leinster – and yet Leinster were expected to fund his recruitment, training, development and salary almost entirely.

Despite being an Irish first team regular for the past six seasons – playing 45 times for Ireland and 3 times for the lions while playing 50 times for Leinster – he has never been on a central contract and the IRFU refused to top up his Leinster contract as they have done for other senior players like Conor Murray and Peter O’Mahony after their central contracts came to an end. Ulster Fans often point to the IRFU preventing Ulster from extending Ruan Pienaar’s contract. But Pienaar never played for Ireland and thus never contributed to the IRFU’s coffers. Lowe was box office.

An example of how this works is contained in the accounts just published for the British and Irish Lions tour to Australia last year (the IRFU don’t publish separate accounts for Leinster). The Lions made a profit of £13 Million on revenues (sales) of £50 million and paid a dividend of £15 million to the participating national unions – England, Ireland, Scotland and Wales. None of this profit goes back to Leinster, despite contributing 14 players to the 38 man squad – over a third of the total. That tour also rescued the previously loss making Australian Rugby Union and helped it make a profit of £43 million last year.

Leinster also regularly provide up to ten other players not on central contracts to the Ireland team. All trained, developed and paid at Leinster expense with no recompense from the IRFU for their unavailability for Leinster for up to half the season. As a result, Leinster are forced to recruit and pay for extra players and play with a weakened squad for much of the season – including crunch away fixtures in South Africa at the start of next season.

Last season these fixtures were fulfilled with a much weakened team and resulted in comprehensive defeats from which Leinster took a long time to recover. Effectively Leinster start the season with one hand tied behind their backs because of the unavailability of c. 20 test players. Expecting 20 year old academy players to scrum against world class South African props is both unfair and dangerous.

To add insult to injury, Leinster are now also required to make an increased contribution to the salaries of those few players who do have central contracts – at a time when Leinster rugby has the additional expenses associated with the redevelopment of the RDS and the hiring of the Aviva and Croke park stadia for home matches. No wonder Leinster have not been able to renew James Lowe’s contract at an attractive level or recruit quality replacements for all the players who are leaving.

It is estimated that 85% of the IRFU’s income comes from the men’s senior international team made up of a majority of players recruited, trained, developed, and paid by Leinster, and yet little of this money trickles back to the province. I have no difficulty with the IRFU supporting the other provinces, the women’s game, the amateur club game, and the elite player development pathways throughout the country, but the IRFU are in danger of killing the golden goose which generates much of this revenue.

No wonder that the Leinster head coach, Leo Cullen, has decided that enough is enough. He is expected to compete with French clubs with far larger budgets and who are not expected to shoulder most of the burden of providing the players who generate virtually all the funds for their national union and who are free to recruit world class players from all over the world to replace those on international duty.

This season Leinster have been able to recruit only two senior professionals, Joey Carbery and Peter Dooley, both ex-Leinster players, neither of whom improved after they left Leinster. Carbery never established himself as first choice elsewhere and Dooley never rose above third choice loose head at Connacht, having been fourth choice at Leinster. He became surplus to requirements at Connacht with the rise of Billy Bohan and the recruitment of Jerry Cahir (from Leinster) and Francois van Wyk (from Bath).

In the past the famed Leinster academy has often made up for the lack of top level recruitment by Leinster, but even that source seems to be drying up. This year only three players have been promoted from the academy: Stephen Smyth (hooker), Conor O’Tighearnaigh (lock) and Josh Kenny (wing) compared to 8 last season.

In addition, three players have left the academy before the end of their contracts, (Mahon Ronan joining the Ulster Academy) and unlike the other provinces, Leinster have announced no new academy intake. All that is known is that the pacy Ireland u.20 full back, Noah Byrne, has turned down the offer of an academy contract in favour of playing Aussie Rules football in Australia. Clearly the allure of playing for Leinster, at a salary Leinster can afford, is diminishing.

The malaise seems to have already spread to the Irish u.20s rugby team. Since 2007, the Irish u.20’s have won 6 nations five times, including four grand slams and won the Triple Crown on seven occasions. They were runners up in the World Championship in 2016 and 2023. Last year they came 11^th., and this year they are in a play-off to come, at best, 9^th.

And now David Humphreys is suggesting Ronan O’Gara as a suitable replacement for Leo Cullen.

Irish rugby is based on the keen rivalries between the provinces with rival supporters belonging to distinct tribes. The Leinster Munster rivalry is particularly fierce and has attracted over 80,000 spectators to Croke Park. Nothing will undermine the Leinster brand and sense of identity more than the imposition of O’Gara – the Leinster supporters’ favourite bête noire. O’Gara is a fine coach and could do a great job for Munster. But he is of the wrong tribe. Even Munsterman Declan Kidney – a fine coach and much less abrasive personality – had little success with Leinster.

If Leinster rugby declines Irish rugby will lose its main player production line and financial engine. Welsh rugby is a salutary lesson of what happens when administrators forget the local loyalties and rivalries that drive support and standards in the country as a whole. David Humphries should mind his own business and let Leinster recruit their own head coach and recruit the players they need to replace those so often away on international duty.

Crowds at home matches have declined as many supporters don’t come to watch weakened teams losing matches that could and should have been won and this appears to have further weakened Leinster’s finances. Things have come to a sorry pass when Leinster can’t even afford to attract and keep players in their own academy.

Rather than down grading the Leinster Academy David Humphreys would be far better employed focusing on improving the academies and elite player development pathways at the other provinces. Irish rugby would be in a far better state if it was firing on all four cylinders, with all four provinces competing at the highest levels in all competitions.

Some commendable progress has already been made at Ulster and Connacht under the excellent leadership of Rory Best, Richie Murphy and Stuart Lancaster. The World Champions, South Africa, have four very competitive franchises plus a lot of test class players plying their trade abroad. We need to generate similar strength in depth in all the provinces if we are to do better in World Cups and win European cups again.

Meanwhile Munster continue to squander the enormous talent that is currently and has recently passed through their academy – preferring to buy in journeyman pros who add nothing to the player development of their own talent pool. Expending considerable resources on a management consultant report that will likely only tell people what they already know won’t help matters. It is the classic “kick for touch” strategy of managers buying time and seeking to evade responsibility. The consultant knows who has commissioned his report and what they want from it.

If players and coaches are accountable and sackable based on their performances, the same should apply to management.

It is many years since Munster have developed any props of note and they have now signed 36 year old England prop Kieran Brookes. They have sacked academy graduate Tony Butler and recruited Australian journeyman 10, Will Harrison, while having two incredibly talented young 10s, Charlie O’Shea and Tom Wood (son of Keith) in their academy. In France, those players would be getting exposure to senior rugby by now.

No Munster player started in the recent test match against Australia. If management accountability is to mean anything, the IRFU needed to see more of a return on the considerable investment they have put into Munster rugby in recent years. The time for “consultants reports” is long past. Dragging Leinster down to the level of Munster helps no one, least of all the standard of the Irish team and the finances the IRFU need to fund rugby throughout the rest of Ireland.

Supporters of other provinces may be delighted if Leinster can no longer lead the Irish rugby scene. Some Schadenfreude is understandable given the degree of Leinster dominance in the past. But they should be careful what they wish for. If Leinster are no longer competitive at European Cup level and provide less and less quality players to the Irish team, the whole financial edifice of  Irish rugby could come tumbling down. Ask Welsh or Australia rugby supporters. A decline in standards can quickly lead to a collapse from which it can take many years to recover.