The Cost of Standing Still: Unlocking Northern Ireland’s Economic Potential…

The economic cost of failing to invest in Northern Ireland’s future is becoming increasingly apparent. A new Ulster University Strategic Policy Unit report, Unlocking NI’s Potential: A Framework for Economic Transformation , provides a compelling analysis of the challenges facing the region and sets out a series of ambitious recommendations to unlock long-term growth.

Below are some reflections on the key themes and recommendations contained within this important and valuable report.

At a time when Northern Ireland faces mounting fiscal pressures, infrastructure deficits (particularly wastewater) and growing economic uncertainty, this report provides an ambitious, evidence-based and much-needed framework for long-term economic transformation.

Particularly encouraging is its strong emphasis on accelerating investment in critical infrastructure, improving productivity, using public funds to drive private investment and assess the costs of policy inaction (refer to Recommendation 29). These issues are often looked at in isolation but are actually deeply interconnected.

Recommendation 29

‘The Executive should seek to calculate/mitigate costs of inaction, and reflect this in budget allocations.’

The report rightly argues that without investment in wastewater infrastructure, housing, energy, skills and transport there will be significant and negative economic and social consequences which increase over many years.

This aligns closely with the issues that I explored recently in two articles.

In Will Westminster’s Fiscal Squeeze Force Northern Ireland to Reform? – Slugger O’Toole , I argued that growing fiscal pressures on Westminster should prompt Northern Ireland to focus less on seeking repeated financial bailouts and more on implementing the structural reforms which are required to unlock long-term growth. The Ulster University report reaches a similar conclusion, highlighting the need to reform incentive structures, improve accountability and create stronger incentives for economic growth.

Likewise, in Northern Ireland Housing Crisis Worsened by Wastewater Constraints… – Slugger O’Toole , I highlighted how inadequate wastewater infrastructure is increasingly acting as a brake on housing delivery, with the building of thousands of homes either being delayed or permanently being put on hold.

In particular, Recommendation 17 suggests that a Regional Investment Bank is created to facilitate borrowing for investment in wastewater infrastructure and other critical services – which in turn drives housebuilding, economic growth and productivity. When housing developments cannot proceed, inward investment opportunities are delayed and town and city regeneration stalls.

Recommendation 17

‘The Executive should explore the case for the establishment of a Regional Investment bank for NI, or some other borrowing mechanism by which to address the infrastructure deficit and weak project delivery pipeline, particularly in relation to key policy areas, such as wastewater, energy sustainability and future-proofed social housing.’

Perhaps the report’s most important implicit message is that wastewater infrastructure has become one of Northern Ireland’s most significant economic growth constraints. The recommendation to implement a Planning & Infrastructure Act, in Recommendation 22/23, and publish an Investment Strategy.

Recommendations 22 & 23

‘It is vital that the Executive recognises the economic significance of critical infrastructure investment and publishes its Investment Strategy. This is crucial for giving an overall strategic framework for capital investment, better planning and more efficiency in spend.

The Executive could also consider the recent legislative changes made in England in the Planning and Infrastructure Act to speed up the planning process in relation to major projects related to economic growth.’

The report critically recognises that economic growth, infrastructure investment and public service reform cannot be considered in separate policy silos. Investment in enabling infrastructure creates the conditions for sustainable economic growth and improves everyone’s wellbeing through more resources.

This report makes an important contribution to that debate and deserves serious consideration from policymakers, business leaders and civic society alike. Its central message is clear: without sustained investment in the infrastructure that underpins economic activity, Northern Ireland’s growth ambitions will remain constrained.