What you need to know
SDLP warn that failure to agree Budget could cut public spending by almost £1 billion
On Monday (22 June), the SDLP used an opposition day motion to highlight the potential costs of the Executive’s continued failure to agree a Budget, the Belfast Telegraph reports. If a Budget has not been agreed by 1 August, departments will be unable to spend more than 95% of the previous year’s total allocation. The SDLP claims that “research based on official figures suggest reduced spending envelopes could mean” 1,100 fewer nurses being employed across the health service, 800 fewer teachers and 450 fewer police officers as well as “delayed wastewater upgrades needed to unlock the delivery of at least 5,000 homes across Northern Ireland”. The party also warns of cuts to social housing delivery, major infrastructure projects, and university research funding. Leader of the Opposition Matthew O’Toole said if no Budget is agreed, “The Executive will be imposing a bigger cut on its own budget than any British Government ever has”. A spokesperson for the Department of Finance said the Opposition are being “reckless” by providing “purely speculative and misleading” figures. They added: “A sustainable multi-year budget is vital to address structural underfunding and growing demand for public services, but it can only be achieved with a fair and credible funding settlement from the Westminster Government.”
What next: If by 1 August the Executive has still failed to agree a budget and a Budget Act has not received Royal Assent, emergency contingency powers are expected to come into effect. The Belfast Telegraph understands that all Stormont departments have been issued with contingency planning envelopes of 95% of last year’s allocation, leaving £930m less in available finance for the coming year.
Economy Minister opposes draft budget and claims department is now “at breaking point”
On Tuesday (23 June), during an evidence session to the Committee for the Economy, Economy Minister Dr Caoimhe Archibald warned that her department was “now at breaking point” and revealed that she could not support the proposed draft budget, prepared by her Sinn Féin party colleague John O’Dowd, due to the allocation for her department. According to the Belfast Telegraph, Ms Archibald said that while the resource budget for the Executive has increased by 58% between the 2016/17 and 2024/25 financial years, her department’s share has risen by just 1%. She claimed that this financial settlement had resulted in Invest NI’s resource budget being reduced by 15%, funding to Tourism NI remaining largely static, and the need for significant operational efficiencies at further education colleges. She added that her department’s budget was “acutely impacted” by the loss of EU funding and “cuts to the department’s baseline” while the Executive was collapsed.
What next: When asked by Committee Chair Phillip Brett (DUP, North Belfast) why Ms Archibald had only shared her concerns about the draft budget now, she argued that the Executive as a whole had taken the position that the draft budget “wasn’t a tenable way forward”. She also warned that Sir Keir Starmer’s resignation as Prime Minister has “further delayed the possibility of getting progress” on an agreed budget.
Treasury rejects VAT cut to NI hospitality designed to ensure “price competitiveness” with Ireland
On Tuesday (23 June), in response to a question from Alex Easton MP (Independent, North Down) Treasury minister Dan Tomlinson rejected calls for pubs and restaurants in Northern Ireland to benefit from a special tax cut to “maintain price competitiveness” with the Republic. From July, VAT on food, catering and hairdressing businesses will be reduced from 13.5% to 9% in Ireland, while VAT charged on most hospitality services will remain at the UK-wide rate of 20%. Defending his decision, Mr Tomlinson argued that “it is important to have consistency for businesses operating across the UK as a whole” before announcing that hospitality firms would benefit from the Great British Summer Savings programme, which began on Thursday
What next: Robin Swann, (UUP, South Antrim) earlier this month tabled an early day motion in Parliament, calling for a 10% VAT pilot in Northern Ireland.
Stakeholder Watch
First Minister Michelle O’Neill (Sinn Féin, Mid Ulster): “It was fantastic to attend the launch of Féile an Phobail, an incredible community festival that showcases the very best of the people and culture of West Belfast and the wider city… This is an incredibly exciting time for Belfast, with Féile and the Fleadh Cheoil happening at the same time.”
Deputy First Minister Emma Little-Pengelly (DUP, Lagan Valley): “A huge thank you to our outgoing USA Consul James Applegate for all his work in Northern Ireland… We should always cherish our close relationship with the USA — US companies sustain many 1000s of jobs in NI, but NI companies are also finding opportunities in the USA.”
Sorcha Eastwood MP (Alliance, Lagan Valley): “@SorchaEastwood calls on the next Prime Minister to address the funding gap facing the community and voluntary sector following the introduction of the Local Growth Fund. You can watch the full interview at 10:55pm on @utv.”
UUP leader Jon Burrows MLA (UUP, North Antrim): Excellent news for Northern Ireland & further proof that we excel in Fintech & aerospace manufacturing. If we create the conditions for thriving businesses & workforces – our economic future can be very bright. Do not let anyone tell you that Northern Ireland is a basket case.
NI Executive: “First Minister Michelle O’Neill and deputy First Minister Emma Little-Pengelly joined athletes, families and coaches at the Team NI Commonwealth Games celebration in Belfast. As the athletes prepare to head to Glasgow, the First Minister and deputy First Minister paid tribute to the years of dedication behind their success and wished Team NI the very best on the international stage.”
Department of Finance: “Finance Minister @JohnODowdSF held an introductory meeting with Scotland’s Deputy First Minister and Cabinet Secretary for Finance and Local Government, @JennyGilruthMSP this morning. They discussed a range of shared priorities and continued collaboration between the devolved administrations going forward.”
John Campbell (BBC NI Economics & Business Editor): “The EU has postponed the 22 July ‘reset summit’ after Starmer got the elbow. They’ll wait on his successor. The summit is important to NI as a deal on agrifood would dramatically reduce the impact of the sea border & a deal on electricity should help reduce prices.”
Other Stories
New £16m scheme announced to get economically inactive people into work
Communities Minister Gordon Lyons has committed £16 million to tackle persistently high levels of economic inactivity in Northern Ireland through the Pathways to Work and Wellbeing project. The project aims to reduce NI’s comparatively high economic inactivity rate, where 27% of people aged 16 to 64 are not in work or seeking work, compared to a UK average of 21%. The scheme will include pilot projects in Belfast and Derry~Londonderry funded through the Executive’s Transformation Fund. It also includes the establishment of a new Commission on Work and Wellbeing, chaired by former UK health minister Alan Milburn, to examine how to support more people into employment.
Constitutional change and Stormont reform discussed at SDLP event
Former Taoiseach Leo Varadkar has warned that a Reform-led UK Government seeking to “double down on Brexit” could accelerate movement towards Irish reunification, according to the Irish News. He was speaking at the “Future of These Islands” panel event, organised by the SDLP to explore constitutional change. Irish Minister for Justice Jim O’Callaghan similarly suggested that a possible Reform government seeking to leave the European Convention on Human Rights could affect the timing of any future border poll. Mr O’Callaghan also restated his view that the PSNI could be retained in a united Ireland alongside An Garda Síochána. Also speaking at the event, Baroness Sue Gray criticised slow decision-making at Stormont and suggested that NI should have metro mayors with stronger regional powers.
Ulster University SPU publishes report on economic transformation framework
Ulster University’s Strategic Policy Unit (SPU) has published a new report setting out a proposed framework for economic transformation in Northern Ireland. The framework has four pillars: public sector reform, productivity, private sector growth and future foresight. In a column for the Irish News, Professor Jodie Carson wrote that the Executive has no direct incentive to prioritise growth because any additional tax revenue accrues to the Treasury. Therefore, she contended that aligning ministerial incentives with growth could reshape decisions on key economic drivers such as wastewater infrastructure, planning reform and higher education.
Court hears A5 scheme was halted over “misinterpretation” of climate law
The Court of Appeal has heard that the planned £1.7bn A5 road upgrade was wrongly blocked because of a “misinterpretation” of Northern Ireland’s climate change legislation, according to the Irish News. The Department for Infrastructure is challenging a High Court ruling which halted the 58-mile dual carriageway scheme between Derry and Aughnacloy after finding that the Department had not demonstrated compliance with statutory emissions targets. Supporting the appeal, counsel for the Minister of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs Andrew Muir argued that the Climate Change Act does not require a “granular analysis” of individual projects, but a wider assessment of whether Northern Ireland remains on course to meet its overall emissions targets.
Amendment to historical institutional abuse redress bill debated after Speaker u-turn
An amendment to the Inquiry (Mother and Baby Institutions, Magdalene Laundries and Workhouses) and Redress Scheme Bill extending the eligibility conditions for posthumous redress was debated in the Assembly on Monday (22 June), after Speaker Edwin Poots reversed his previous decision not to select the amendment for debate. The amendment, tabled by Chair of The Executive Office Committee Paula Bradshaw MLA (Alliance, South Belfast), would allow anyone who died before a date in 1953 to apply for redress, rather than the 2011 cut-off proposed in the Bill as drafted. The Speaker has not provided a reason why he initially blocked the amendment from being debated, or why he has now reversed his decision, the Belfast Telegraph reports. The amendment was adopted by the Assembly.
€377m for Shared Island projects approved this week
On Tuesday (23 June) Taoiseach Micheál Martin and Minister for Foreign Affairs Helen McEntee announced for a further €377m in funding for 12 projects financed by the Shared Island Fund. €193m is aimed at upgrading Derry-Belfast-Dublin rail connectivity, aiming to bring the journey from Dubin to Belfast to under two hours. Other projects included the development of ports to service the offshore renewables sector, the third phase of the Ulster Canal restoration, and €20m for a new Shared Island Industrial Sustainability Challenge Fund.
Across the Border
No plans to decriminalise drug possession, despite committee report
Minister of State at the Department of Health Jennifer Murnane O’Connor said the Government has no plans to decriminalise drug possession for personal use, contrary to the recommendation of an Oireachtas committee, RTÉ News reports. The Joint Committee on Drugs Use, which was newly formed at the start of this Dáil term, published its report on Wednesday (24 June), making 161 recommendations for Ireland to move to from a criminal justice approach to a health-led approach. However, the Government have pushed back against the idea of decriminalisation, with both Taoiseach Micheál Martin and Justice Minister Jim O’Callaghan warning against any move that would increase the incidence of drug taking. Committee Chair, Social Democrats TD Gary Gannon, described the “tepid” response from the Government as “deeply concerning”.
Martin tells Fianna Fáil TDs that Bill to remove triple-lock will be deferred until autumn
Fianna Fáil leader and Taoiseach Micheál Martin told his parliamentary party that the Defence (Amendment) Bill 2026 will not be brought to the Dáil for debate until after the summer recess, the Irish Times reports. The legislation will provide for the removal of the triple-lock mechanism, which currently requires Government, Dáil and UN Security Council approval before members of the Defence Forces can be deployed overseas as part of international missions. A number of Fianna Fáil TDs expressed concern about the legislation, led by former Defence Minister Willie O’Dea, and have asked for more time to debate the issue.
Irish and Welsh Governments agree closer ties at forum
On Wednesday (24 June), Welsh First Minister Rhun ap Iorwerth travelled to Dublin on his first international trip, RTÉ News reports. He met Minister for Foreign Affairs and Trade Helen McEntee at the sixth Ireland-Wales Forum, where they agreed to advance cooperation across clean energy, education and trade, and collaborate more closely around sports diplomacy. Mr ap Iorwerth also said he is the leader of a “pro-Europe” government, telling RTÉ: “Having that close relationship with Ireland is a part of how we build those European networks.”
What We’re Reading
Mark Bain: New curriculum puts digital skills on menu just as social media rendered off-limits for under-16s… that won’t be an easy cake to bake
In Thursday’s Belfast Telegraph, Mark Bain writes that “if Government plans are followed through”, no one under the age of 16 will have access to “the main social media channels we have all become so used to as part of our lives”, although he adds that “those who really want to will find a way around it”. Meanwhile, last week Paul Givan presented “the all new Northern Ireland Curriculum”. Bain writes that one interesting new inclusion in the curriculum is that “children will learn about “identity, privacy and cybersecurity” online from the earliest years of primary school with a new focus placed on Digital Technology”. He says that children are “being presented with all the ingredients for the cake and will be instructed in how to bake it. But they won’t be allowed to eat it — legally at least”. Bain also warns that when “much of life is lived through the lens of social media”, teachers may find it “virtually impossible” to educate children who “are left blinded to what’s actually out there”. He writes that “social media companies, those who make their multi-millions through the addictive nature of their sites, have failed to do enough”, which is why the Government “has felt the need to step in”. And they are supported by parents – Bain cites a recent YouGov poll which showed 77% of parents support a ban on social media for under-16s. However, he cautions that now that the Government have waited so long to act, “that what had become a part of everyday life will, by next year, likely be removed from under the noses of those under 16”.
Forward Look
Friday 3 July
Assembly rises for Summer recess
Monday 7 September
First sitting of the Assembly after Summer recess
Friday 11 – Saturday 12 September 2026
SDLP Conference, Crowne Plaza Belfast
Friday 18 – Saturday 19 September 2026
DUP annual conference, La Mon Hotel, Belfast
Friday 25 – Saturday 26 September 2026
UUP annual conference, Crowne Plaza Belfast
Thursday 8 October 2026
NILGA Conference, Island Arts Centre Lisburn
Friday 23 October 2026
Social Enterprise Awards for NI 2026, Crowne Plaza Hotel, Belfast
Wednesday 18 November 2026
North West Future of Energy Conference & Exhibition 2026, White Horse Hotel- Read more here.
Thursday 19 November – Friday 20 November 2026
NIFHA Annual Conference 2026, Slieve Donard Hotel- Read more here.
Thursday 10 December 2026
NIFHA Housing Finance Conference, DoubleTree by Hilton Hotel Templepatrick- Read more here.
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