It’s not just Protestant schools: Catholic schools are changing too…

In East Belfast, Catholic Maintained schools are losing their old identity even faster than Controlled schools – and the system isn’t ready for it.

A follow-up analysis to “If the education system cannot see the majority, it cannot claim to serve it“

When Education Minister Paul Givan refused to grant Integrated status to Rathmore Primary School and Bangor Academy, it became clear that the 2022 Integrated Education Act disregards a majority category of ‘Other’ (secular families, non-Christians, mixed backgrounds, etc.).

Figure 1: Proportions of pupils designated as Protestant, Catholic, and Other at Rathmore Primary School

An analysis of primary schools in the Greater East Belfast area suggests that parental reluctance to accept a binary sectarian designation for their children constitutes a cross-community issue. Indeed, Catholic Maintained schools are currently experiencing a more rapid erosion of their traditional identity compared to de facto Protestant Controlled schools.

The Pattern Across Catholic Schools

All seven Catholic Maintained and Irish-medium schools analysed showed a marked decline in the ‘Catholic’ designation.

School	Catholic 2014/15	Catholic 2024/25	Change
Holy Rosary PS	67 %	41%	–26
St Malachy’s PS	67 %	42%	–25
St Matthew’s PS	89%	71%	–18
St Joseph’s PS	87%	75 %	–12
Scoil an Droichid	81%	69%	–11
St Michael’s PS	95%	86%	–10
St Bernard’s PS	96%	93%	–4

Table 1: ‘Catholic’ designation loss -15 percentage points between 2014/15 and 2024/25 in Catholic primary schools

The average ‘Catholic’ designation loss was -15 percentage points between 2014/15 and 2024/25. For comparison, Controlled schools lost ‘Protestant’ designation at an average of -12 points over the same period.

Holy Rosary and St Malachy’s: The First Catholic Schools with an ‘Other’ Majority

In 2014/15, Holy Rosary was 67% ‘Catholic’. By 2024/25, ‘Catholic’ had fallen to 41% while ‘Other’ rose from 32% to 54%. St Malachy’s followed an almost identical trajectory: from 67% ‘Catholic’ in 2014/15 to 42% ‘Catholic’ in 2024/25, making these the first Catholic Maintained primaries where ‘Other’ constitutes a clear majority.

Figure 2: Proportions of pupils designated as Protestant, Catholic, and Other at Holy Rosary Primary School

Figure 3: Proportions of pupils designated as Protestant, Catholic, and Other at St Malachy’s Primary School

The Cross-Community Reality

Thirteen primary schools in Greater East Belfast now serve ‘Other’ majorities:

Controlled schools (11):

• Strathearn Preparatory (83% Other)
• Belmont (71%)
• Botanic (65%)
• Greenwood (63%)
• Campbell College Junior (62%)
• Rosetta (62%)
• Braniel (60%)
• Dundela Infants (59%)
• Euston Street (55%)
• Orangefield (53%)
• Leadhill (52%)

Catholic Maintained schools (2):

• Holy Rosary (54% Other)
• St Malachy’s (approx. 52% Other)

Several additional Controlled schools, including Elmgrove PS, Strandtown PS, and Knockbreda PS, now have no majority designation—pluralities rather than majorities—suggesting they may be approaching similar crossover points. Both sectors are experiencing the same demographic shift. However, Catholic schools are experiencing it more rapidly.

Figure 4: Proportions of pupils designated as Protestant, Catholic, and Other at Elmgrove Primary School

The Legitimation Question

It has now become reasonable to ask questions such as, what is the point of four Board members representing the interests of Protestant Churches at Belmont Primary when nearly three-quarters of pupils are expressly not Protestant?

Figure 5: Proportions of pupils designated as Protestant, Catholic, and Other at Belmont Primary School

And what is the purpose of having four Board members representing the Catholic Church at Holy Rosary and St Malachy’s Primary Schools, where only a minority of parents have elected to identify their children as ‘Catholic’?

The sectoral framework assumes schools serve communities affiliated with their ethos. When majorities explicitly choose to identify as ‘Other’, that assumption collapses.

The Policy Impossibility Affects Both Sectors

Under the 2022 Act’s requirement for “reasonable numbers of both Protestant and Roman Catholic children,” schools such as Holy Rosary and St Malachy’s are unable to attain integrated status because the count of Protestant pupils remains below the necessary threshold, despite a substantial majority identifying as ‘Other’ and a minority identifying as ‘Catholic’. Belmont Primary is likewise unable to undertake such a transformation due to an insufficient Catholic pupil population, notwithstanding a 71% super-majority identifying as ‘Other’.

Both schools serve pluralist communities. Both face transformation criteria designed for Protestant-Catholic balance, not Protestant-Catholic-Other pluralism.

More fundamentally, sectoral designations have become demographic mismatches. Catholic management at Holy Rosary and St Malachy’s represents a minority, while the ‘Other’ majority has no dedicated governance representation. Protestant-oriented management at Belmont represents a minority, while the ‘Other’ super-majority has no representation.

What the Minister Missed

Givan refused Rathmore’s transformation bid, citing an insufficient number of Catholics (3%), despite a 52% ‘Other’ representation. The data reveal that he ignored the systematic pattern.

This is more than Protestant secularisation. Both communities are simultaneously moving away from sectarian designations. Catholic Maintained schools are doing so faster than Controlled schools. But this movement is cross-community.

The current framework cannot respond because it was designed for 20th-century sectarianism—managing separate Protestant and Catholic systems with integration as a minority option, requiring a delicate balance. It cannot comprehend 21st-century pluralism—majorities in both sectors simultaneously rejecting sectarian categorisation.

Section 75 and Equality

As previously noted, the Northern Ireland Act 1998, Section 75, requires equality of opportunity between persons of different religious beliefs, including those with no religious belief.

Currently, thirteen primary schools within Greater East Belfast accommodate pupil majorities categorised as ‘Other.’ These pluralist majorities lack formal governance representation, while administrative frameworks predominantly reflect the traditions of either Protestant or Catholic minorities. The absence of institutional recognition for the largest demographic group of pupils creates a statutory equality issue.

The Trajectory

If current trends continue:

• Multiple Catholic schools could reach 40-50% ‘Other’ with ‘Catholic’ approaching minority status
• Multiple controlled schools could reach 70%+ ‘Other’ with ‘Protestant’ below 30%
• Sectoral labels become increasingly disconnected from pupil demographics in both sectors

The question becomes: what legitimates sectoral frameworks when majorities in both sectors explicitly opt out of sectarian designation?

The Post-Primary Implication

This cross-community move away from sectarian labelling at the primary level has a direct policy implication. It demonstrates pent-up demand for integrated post-primary provision in East Belfast, where none currently exists.

If 55% of East Belfast’s Controlled primaries and now two Catholic Maintained primaries serve ‘Other’ majorities, where do these pupils go at age 11?

East Belfast has no integrated post-primary school. Pupils choosing to continue in Integrated education must travel to Lagan College or across the city to Malone or Hazelwood Colleges. The absence of local Integrated provision forces families who have rejected sectarian categorisation for their children at the primary level to either travel long distances or to accept segregated post-primary education in their local area.

The primary school data from DENI illustrates the demand. Thirteen schools serving ‘Other’ majorities, along with three additional schools nearing crossover points, represent nearly 5,000 pupils—thousands of families that have deliberately selected a pluralist designation for their children. These families form a tangible constituency for integrated post-primary education, which current policy fails to acknowledge, as the existing framework focuses only on a binary Protestant-Catholic balance rather than embracing a more nuanced Protestant-Catholic-Other pluralism.

A systemic change is already underway in the primary schools of both our communities. The question now is whether our post-primary provision will adapt to serve the educational demand that follows.