Into the Lion’s Den: and there but for the grace of…

If Ireland’s 2023/2024 season ended on a high with a last gasp defeat of the World Champion’s South Africa on their home territory in Durban, thanks to two late Frawley drop goals, the 2024/2025 test season began on a low with defeat to the All Blacks in November. All manner of excuses were possible. The All blacks had been training and playing together right through the Rugby Championship since July, whereas this was Ireland’s first test after the summer off-season. Quite a few of the Irish team had only had a few club games under their belt at that stage and were nowhere near as battle hardened and coordinated as their New Zealand counterparts.

But that defeat was followed by unconvincing wins against Argentina and a Joe Schmidt revived Australia, with a good eight try 52-17 win against a team of uncertain quality in Fiji in between. At least the Fiji match allowed Ireland to blood a few new or relatively new players, notably Craig Casey, Sam Prendergast, Gus McCarthy, Thomas Clarkson, Cormac Izuchukwu, and Jamie Osborne. It was also the last time Ulster had significant representation in the match day squad, with Izuchukwu joined by Iain Henderson, Stuart McCloskey, Jacob Stockdale, and Tom O’Toole. The experiment of playing Tom O’Toole at loosehead prop underlined Ireland’s paucity of talent coming through in that position, but all the debutantes had an auspicious start to their international debuts. The IRFU are generally good at identifying, developing, and integrating emerging talent into the national squad.

Ireland’s Six Nation’s campaign, just ended, was a similarly mixed affair. The highlights were a good second half against England and first half against Scotland. Ireland’s 27-22 and 18-32 winning score lines in those matches didn’t do their performances justice. But that was followed by a disappointing performance against Wales, a demoralising defeat at home to France, and an underwhelming win against Italy – a match that could have been lost but for Italian indiscipline. Whatever about their performances, Ireland were also, again, the victim of some poor officiating. The TMO having failed to intervene to allow a perfectly good score by Keenan created by Lowe’s touchline run, having previously intervened to disallow “tries” by Bealham and Keenan for marginal double movement and knock-on calls. Keenan could easily have joined Sheehan on a hat trick.

Overall, it is hard do escape the conclusion that Ireland have declined sightly from their Grand Slam season in 2023, with defeats to England and France derailing our Grand Slam ambitions in 2024 and 2025. Our attack has been blunt and we went into our shells against Wales and Italy trying to get over the line from mauls and one off runners who were held up time and again. Our defence has also been much more porous with players like Menoncello piercing us through the middle and Bielle-Bierray and Van der Merve out wide. We have lacked pace.

But two defeats in ten Six nations matches is hardly a disaster. The sporting Gods (and their match officials) may have failed to look favourably on our efforts, but our performances also declined sufficiently for some of those wins and losses to enter the realm of fine margins, and therefore uncertain outcomes. The plus points for Ireland were the emergence of some new players like Osborne, Prendergast, Gus McCarthy, Izuchukwu, Clarkson, and Boyle, and the recovery from injury of Sheehan and Furlong, who eventually got through 35 minutes in the match against Italy. He was much missed.

However, despite the retirement of Healy, Murray and O’Mahony, Ireland’s team is still aging, with an average age approaching 30. Henderson and Herring are nearing the end of their test careers, and many of our stalwarts – Bealham, Furlong, Beirne, Van Der Flier, Conan, Gibson Park, Lowe, Henshaw and Aki may only have a season or two at the top level left. With the era of “project players” – Hansen, Lowe, Aki, Gibson Park – having come to an end, the pipeline of new talent coming through doesn’t seem sufficient to fill all those gaps. Our u.20 team, having been prevented  from winning three Grand Slams in a row only by a draw against England in 2024, finished a miserable bottom of the table this year. Hardly any of this year’s team looked like they might have test class potential.

France have solved that problem by recruiting Pacific Islanders as young as 17, so that they will be qualified for France by the time they reach their prime, aged 22. They also have an unrivalled TOP 14 league and a substantial semi-professional secondary D2 league. England have access to a much larger population and immigration flows from the Commonwealth and the largest u.13 player pool – twelve times the size of Ireland’s. Scotland, too, have relied heavily on South Africans and Commonwealth talent. New Zealand have access to a Pacific Islands gene pool that migrates naturally to New Zealand’s more successful economy. South Africa have by far the largest player pool of all.

The bottom line is that Ireland have been defying gravity and punching way beyond our weight. We have been blessed with at least one arguably world class player for each position but below that – not so much. Witness the fact that only Leinster are thriving at club level with the other three provinces struggling for mid-table respectability. And that is with only four professional franchises compared to France’s 14 and England’s 10. And even England have been struggling to maintain 10 professional clubs and all of their best talent. The truth is that the IRFU have been playing a blinder in retaining our top talent and keeping 4 franchises afloat. Scotland had to ditch their third professional franchise (the Border’s team) and all four of the Welsh regions have been struggling.

So, logically, the only way for Ireland to go is down. When you are in the middle of a golden era, it is easy to imagine it will last forever. Indeed, many of our more recent supporters seem to think that not winning a World Cup or a 6 Nations is a disgrace and regard this season’s Triple Crown win as an irrelevance. It was more than Ireland could do for 30 years as I was growing up. So, are we destined to slide down the world rankings to the point where our participation in the 6 Nations and qualification for the knock-out stages of the World Cup becomes in doubt? There but for the grace of God and some good IRFU and provincial management go we.

Bar some massive genetic influx from the Pacific Isles we have to broaden our player pools, improve our elite development pathways, and develop sub-academies at every senior club. There are still communities in many parts of our island ill-served by playing, training, and coaching opportunities and resources. While encouraging some players to leave Leinster (as happens every season) may be a short term fix for specific problem positions, there is no substitute for every province expanding their player pools and development opportunities. Their survival, and the survival of Ireland as a top tier nation now depends on it. Ireland are still ranked third in the world (marginally above France), but Wales, with a much greater rugby tradition than ours, are down in 12^th. place, not far above Japan, Samoa and the USA. They have a better national stadium than we have, but not much else. By rights, Georgia should now be promoted to the 6 Nations ahead of them.

Lions tour to Australia

But as things stand, Ireland are still in a good position to have the lion’s share of places on the Lion’s tour this summer. It is the time of year when every media outlet publishes the preferred selection of various journalists and pundits, including some silly ones like the Guardian’s Robert Kitson’s email newsletter selection including French and Italian players, and only one Irishman – Dan Sheehan. So, for your edification and delectation, I include a possible squad selection below, including some fringe players who may not make the cut. For simplicity I have included three players for every position, although knowing Farrell, his final squad is unlikely to be as big as 45. I have also included two players, Tuipulotu and Feyi-Waboso, who missed the 6 Nations through injury and Furlong, who played just 35 minutes of the last match against Italy.

Please feel free to make your own selections in the comments. Obviously, injuries and form can still play a role before the squad is announced on 8^th. May. Borthwick has already had his say endorsing Itoje for the captaincy and revealing that Farrell hasn’t approached him or any of his assistance to complete the coaching ticket due to be announced in a week or so. His Irish assistants are said to be in the frame, although someone will have to manage and coach the Ireland team due to tour Georgia and Portugal this summer. A tour which has been organised with remarkably little information being made public.

URC Round 13

In other news, all four provinces have away URC fixtures this week-end, having won three of their four home fixtures in the last round, with Munster losing to Edinburgh 28-34 to highlight their current difficulties. Importing another coach from abroad isn’t going to solve their lack of test class players. Ulster and Connacht had narrow 30-28 and 38-30 wins over Scarlets and Benetton respectively, while Leinster eventually overcame Cardiff 42-24.

Glasgow vs. Munster, Friday, March 21^st. 19.35 RTE

Bulls vs. Leinster, Saturday 15.00 RTE

Dragon’s vs Ulster, Saturday 17.15 Premiersports

Ospreys vs. Connacht, Saturday 17.15, RTE.

I am tempted to predict four defeats, although Ulster really shouldn’t be losing to bottom of the table Dragons. Munster having lost to Edinburgh at home are hardly likely to defeat Glasgow away, although you never know with Munster. Connacht are currently on 29 points to Osprey’s 28 in 9^th. and 11^th. places, so should give them a good game, having hit some form lately. Leinster haven’t announced what squad they are taking on their South Africa tour, but it will presumably not include any of their 16 players who featured against Italy. Last year they included quite a few academy players on the tour and were soundly beaten 44 -12 by the Lions, and 42-12 by the Stormers. The Bulls and Sharks should be even more difficult this year. With a 13 point cushion at the top of the table, they can afford to lose both matches (but not any more) and still be in pole position to claim home advantage all the way to the final in the knock out stages.

I will post the squad selections in the comments as they are announced.