The prospect of a £1.6bn contract for the Thales missile factory in east Belfast to deliver 5,000 lightweight missiles to Ukraine shows that Northern Ireland has a role to play in world affairs. (Gail Walker, Comment March 8)
Regardless of whether this plant might theoretically become one of Putin’s targets, no matter how remote that possibility might be, it makes Northern Ireland a strategic partner in the so-called ‘coalition of the willing’.
Amidst the torrent of events surrounding the talks to end the war in the Ukraine, Keir Starmer has been widely praised for his skilful dialog with Donald Trump during his recent US visit. However, the resulting trade talks between the US and the UK could have a significant impact on Northern Ireland’s economy.
This situation is more complicated for Northern Ireland because of Brexit, the Windsor Framework and the complex trading arrangements between the EU’s single market and Great Britain. For instance, if the Prime Minister was to sign a unique trade deal with the US whilst the EU succumbs to Trump’s punitive tariffs then the problems at the Irish Sea Border would get worse.
Furthermore, if President Trump was to punish The Republic for having a trade imbalance with the US by ordering the withdrawal of American manufacturers and tech giants it would have a devastating impact on their economy. As the Irish and Northern Irish economies are inextricably linked these two impacts could have an extremely negative impact on our own economy.
Even though some local politicians might be tempted to welcome the demise of the Irish economy, in the hope that it damages the prospects of a future border poll, this elation would be short-lived as they would be partly blamed for the economic devastation. Besides, Trump could simply rescind or amend the UK’s trade deal in the future.
However, there is another important reason why we should be calling for the minimum divergence in the EU and UK markets. This is because it is vitally important that the rest of the Western world remains united, despite, and because of, the attempts by the Trump administration to divide and conquer.
The only language that President Trump understands is money and the disruption he is currently causing to the US stock-market, by his indiscriminate use of tariffs to bully his neighbours and allies, could easily backfire.
The greatest mistake that Europe and the Canadians could make is to allow themselves to become divided and to over-react to increased US tariffs. The bloc should, therefore, act in unison and unite in trade policy.
Donald Trump’s one weak spot is his own domestic market and the risk of causing a spike in inflation which would drive down stock market prices and cause a self-inflicted recession. The American public will react very negatively if the price of foods, fuel, building materials and rents rise sharply.
Trump was elected on the promise of keeping inflation low and will therefore be punished in the opinion polls if he fails in this primary task.
Therefore, the one thing that Northern Irish politicians could do to help is to lobby the UK government to minimise any divergence in the UK and EU markets during the coming trade talks.
Only by forming a resolute and united front can Western nations have a chance to defend themselves against the Trump onslaught.
Cllr Brian Pope is a Chartered Civil Engineer and a former councillor on Armagh City, Banbridge and Craigavon Borough Council
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