As a naturalised Irishman and as a European, I find myself thinking far more about the Russia Ukraine war than I do about Drumcree. The war is existential for Ukraine, and perhaps for liberal democracy in eastern Europe. Together with the antagonism of Donald Trump, it threatens the foundations of peace and prosperity of all of Europe.
Drumcree, on the other hand, must be a godsend to the extremists in Northern Ireland, making them relevant again having been side-lined for much of the post GFA era. But what relevance has it got to the lives of most people in Ireland?
That Garvaghy residents, many of them descendants of families intimidated out of house and home elsewhere in Northern Ireland, should not want the Orange Order parading triumphantly down their street is understandable enough. That unionism should want to resurrect this particular dispute is less so. Does unionism really want to make itself universally hated in Ireland, Britain and far beyond?
Extremism flourishes where parties are competing for votes primarily within their own tribe, and any vote gained from outside their tribe comes at the cost of at least two within it. (Ask the SDLP!) But it is hard to see how this particular dispute can broaden unionism’s appeal to anyone outside their tribe, and perhaps also result in their losing even more ground within their own natural northern protestant constituency. Who needs the hassle? Haven’t things been improving since the 1990’s? Why put all the progress made since at risk?
The Drumcree dispute can also only strengthen solidarity within the nationalist community – giving a lifeline to marginal groups like Éirígí, but also to a Sinn Féin party in deep trouble in Stormont. Sinn Féin simply can’t afford to be outflanked by Éirígí on an issue as emotive as this, given its delivery of almost nothing in Stormont. Indeed, what a welcome distraction from that non-delivery Drumcree must be for Sinn Féin.
But if Power Sharing fails again, it can only strengthen the argument of those who say that Northern Ireland simply cannot work as a political entity. And will Britain really be happy to pick up the tab again?
Much ink has been expended by a wide range of commentators on the fact that the south is not ready for re-unification. But is Britain, and more precisely, Westminster, ready for a return to Direct Rule?
There is no provision for Direct Rule in the Good Friday Agreement. Will the Irish government simply stand aside and accept the lack of parity of esteem Direct Rule gives to those of the nationalist tradition? Should parity of esteem not also mean joint rule from London and Dublin in that scenario?
The logical alternative to the Power Sharing enshrined in the GFA is Joint, not British rule. It baffles me that political unionism doesn’t realise its very survival depends on ensuring that Power Sharing is a success, encouraging increasing buy in from non-unionists. Casement Park may not be rebuilt for all sorts of reasons, but it is the Union itself that will be the loser if those problems are not resolved.
At some point the powers that be in Westminster must also start to question the value they are getting for their £15 Billion p.a. and rising investment in Northern Ireland. Are they simply enabling an entirely dysfunctional political entity to exist indefinitely? Are they just subsidising sectarianism?
But these are political questions for Westminster to answer. The people of Ireland have no direct say in the matter. Only the British government can decide the level of financial subsidy for Northern Ireland or call a border poll if they wish to wash their hands of the matter.
And so the political attention of the vast majority of those living in the south is elsewhere – rightly so in my view. Better to focus on problems actually within our power to fix. The notion that anything we can do in the south will persuade the Orange Order that parading down the Garvaghy Road isn’t actually a good idea is fanciful in my view. As is the notion that a single hard line unionist will ever support a United Ireland this side of a border poll regardless of whatever “concessions” a southern government is persuaded to make.
The persuadables in Northern Ireland will only despair at Northern Ireland marching back into the past again. It is not what they signed up for in the Good Friday Agreement. It only provides further evidence that Northern Ireland as a political entity isn’t working, and that it requires a financial and political outlay that is in nobody else’s interests to maintain or take on.
Britain will ignore Northern Ireland for as long as it can, until Northern Ireland itself makes that ignorance no longer sustainable. And right now, no one else is prepared to take that problem on. Why invest in something that simply can’t be fixed?
Meanwhile, tens of thousands are being killed or maimed each week in the Russia Ukraine war which threatens to metastasise into the rest of Europe. That is a problem we can’t ignore. Ironically, part of the rationale for the Drumcree march is to commemorate the Battle of the Somme. Wouldn’t we all be far better off making sure that something like the slaughter of the Somme doesn’t ever happen again?
Frank Schnittger is the author of Sovereignty 2040, a future history of how Irish re-unification might work out. He has worked in business in Dublin and London and, on a voluntary basis, for charities in community development, education, restorative justice and addiction services.
Discover more from Slugger O'Toole
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
