Sorcha Eastwood MP’s decision to vote against the Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill 2024 (“The Bill”) holds potential future electoral risk for the Alliance Party.
After successfully passing the Second Reading stage in the UK Parliament by 330-275 votes, the Bill is now at the Committee Stage and will be scrutinised by its 23 members (15 x Labour, 4 x Conservative, 3 x Liberal Democrat and 1 x Plaid Cymru); notably absent of any NI members. Consideration of the Bill is likely to extend into Spring 2025, before moving onwards to subsequent stages for Parliamentary scrutiny.
In reality, it is entirely reasonable that additional time (where possible) will be given to each stage of the Bill in order to demonstrate the fullness of scrutiny that the topic deserves, elongating any normal timelines. That means, it could be very late 2025 or early 2026 before the Bill could receive Royal Assent if successful.
Importantly, the Bill will only apply in England and Wales, not Northern Ireland. In Scotland, Holyrood has already begun consideration of similar legislation, the Assisted Dying for Terminally Ill Adults (Scotland) Bill which is expected to be voted on in Spring 2025. So, by 2026, three of the four constituent parts of the UK could be in the process of operationalising assisted dying, with Northern Ireland being the outlier yet again. That is despite polling sponsored by My Death, My Decision and conducted by Lucid Talk revealing that the majority in Northern Ireland would support it. Asked in August 2024 the following question:
“Would you support the legalisation of assisted dying in Northern Ireland for adults of sound mind who are terminally ill or suffering intolerably from an incurable condition? The law would include rigorous safeguards”, 3,443 people responded as per below:
| Definitely | 40% |
| Probably | 27% |
| Probably not | 9% |
| Definitely not | 19% |
| Don’t know not sure | 5% |
In all, around two-thirds (67%) of respondents indicated a positive preference, with 40% indicating unconditional support, and 27% indicating the decision would be conditions based. True to form, the majority of Northern Ireland’s sitting MPs managed to support exactly the opposite stance of the indicative NI popular position.
As a reminder, the DUP, TUV, UUP and Alliance Partys’ MPs all voted Against, whilst the SDLP’s MPs were split, with Colum Eastwood voting For and Claire Hannah Abstaining. Although not taking their seats, Sinn Fein indicated support for the principle of assisted dying in certain circumstances. Notwithstanding the actual casting of a vote, when sentiment alone is considered, this highlights a broad split between NI parties, forcibly allocating them to one of two camps: regressive (DUP, TUV, UUP and Alliance Party), and progressive (Sinn Fein and SDLP).
As the Alliance Party’s only elected MP, the more socially liberal voters that tend to opt for Alliance at the ballot box must be wondering what the point was in even returning an Alliance Party MP to Westminster, if they were going to stand shoulder to shoulder with NI’s right wing religious fundamentalists.
The UK Government has concerns that if the legislation does not make it onto the statute book, then the issue will rumble on. That is to say, such a prominent issue will be given significant oxygen by the media throughout 2025-26. If it is anything like the abortion debate, should the Bill come into law, the ensuing protests across the GB and NI will continue to keep the issue alive into 2026 and beyond. The next NI Assembly election is scheduled for May 2027, and NI voters have long memories; this puts the Alliance Party in a difficult position to reclaim the progressive high ground.
This is because the MP for Lagan Valley’s opposition to the Bill has already become the Alliance Party’s default inherited position in the eyes of ordinary voters, emphasised by her position as the party’s only elected MP, irrespective of it being couched as a ‘free vote.’ A conscience-vote is an interesting term, or otherwise put, the party was unable or could not be bothered to agree a position.
Looking back at the initial arguments preferred by Eastwood, they appear to be thinly veiled unconditional opposition to any form of assisted dying. As the debate is only getting started in earnest, it is expected the same arguments will be rolled out by the MP to resist the legislation in the near future; they are worth revisiting.
The first, is that she determined there was insufficient time for scrutiny. She does not indicate how many hours she would feel comfortable with and gives no credence to the quality of any debate. This tactic of levying a procedural rather than a substantive criticism appears to hide a pre-determined decision not to support assisted dying. It is ultimately an attempt to attach a layer of legitimacy to her own position by suggesting that she is victim of a broken democratic process, divesting herself of responsibility early.
Secondly, she cites desired improvements in palliative care as the other reason to withhold support for the Bill. Improvements in palliative care have been campaigned for by hundreds of groups for years now, to no avail, much like social care. In fact, the charitable sector does some seriously heavy lifting in the palliative care space. Improvements to palliative care are not really on the table despite any political talk to the contrary; ordinary people know meaningful improvements will not materialise in an already strapped NHS. That means that Eastwood’s position is one of maintaining the status quo. Unfortunately for her, the Bill is on the table now, helped by the fact that every sensible person knows that palliative care improvements will not be forthcoming. Such an argument does nothing but highlight the vulnerabilities in her (and arguably now the Alliance Party’s) position.
Arguably, attempts to restrain developments in social progress is a well-established tenet of the DUP and TUV, but it is an undesirable trait for the Alliance Party who seeks to woo the next generation of progressive voters. In a possible attempt to appear relatable to her constituency, Eastwood admitted to have been influenced by lobbyists, well before any debate in parliament on the issue.
Taking a position in advance on an issue is fine, but trying to set the conditions to be able to say lobbyists got you over the line lacks the very intimate level of consideration that the debate warrants. Cynically, it may be that she is simply seeking to bank some good-will for self-preservation with the more conservative members of her constituency well in advance of the next General Election, rather than demonstrate progressive thought leadership on the issue. Her decision will however, create some cognitive dissonance amongst existing Alliance voters, which could contribute to a longer term malaise with the party.
By highlighting just how similar a vote for an Alliance MP is to that of NI’s unionist dinosaur parties who unconditionally oppose any legislation in this vein, Eastwood is miscalculating. Sinn Fein has indicated support for assisted dying in principle, and the SDLP has voted for it. The Lagan Valley MP has therefore handed Sinn Fein and the SDLP the initiative and opened the door for Alliance voters to consider switching to a more socially-in-tune party as a progressive alternative. This is entirely in-keeping with how the Sinn Fein machine has rebranded itself in NI, with Michelle O’Neill styling herself as a First Minster for all. This is the case regardless of Sinn Fein’s abstentionist policy.
After all, what is worse, MPs that don’t take their seats in Westminster but yet can achieve significant impact through established back channels, or an MP that takes her seat and yet actively votes to stymie progression when she accepts the status quo does not work?
Depending on how the legislation progresses will achieve one of two things:
1. If it passes, remind Alliance voters that their sole representative in Parliament stood side-by-side with the fundamentalist zealots of the DUP/TUV in an attempt to prevent terminally ill adults escape their suffering, or;
2. If it fails, succeeded in prolonging the suffering of terminally ill adults for another decade whilst palliative care provision remains unchanged.
If NI becomes an outlier within the UK for assisted dying (likely) in time for the 2027 NI Assembly election, paired with almost certain ensuing demonstrations and counter-demonstrations (which will inevitably happen should the legislation pass), then these conditions will only serve to highlight the damaging optics of Alliance’s role in making it so.
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