If you were at the Slugger End of Year Review in December (and if you weren’t we hope you had a good excuse as you missed a great evening), you’ll have been treated to an excellent and engaging conversation between Alex Kane and Allison Morris where they reviewed our tumultuous 2024 (which saw power-sharing restored, three changes in the leadership of political parties and not one, but TWO general elections…).
Having looked back, Alex has now decided to look forward with an article posted on Politics Home entitled ‘2025 Is Unlikely To Be A Year of Harmony In Northern Irish Politics‘. It’s a great read and one we highly recommend, though the title does kind of spoil the tone of the piece at the very start.
Alex opens with a critique of our institutions, writing that ‘Why, as the Good Friday Agreement (GFA) nudges towards its 28th anniversary, do we still have to ask if the institutions it created – the Assembly and Executive – are stable? Well, they have been down for five of the last eight years, and in the years they weren’t down they were the scene of almost serial stand-offs, cliff-edge wrestling and emergency summits (co-hosted by the British and Irish governments) to prevent collapse. Indeed, at celebration conferences to mark the 20th and 25th anniversaries of the ‘success’ of the GFA, in 2018 and 2023, neither the Assembly nor Executive was even functioning.
The instability stems from the fact the GFA was built around reaching conflict stalemate rather than conflict resolution. At the outset there was talk of underpinning the process with what David Trimble described as ‘constructive ambiguity’ – that is, allowing the individual parties to believe what they wanted to believe about what they had signed up to. But it didn’t take long until ambiguity was replaced with destructive clarity; the clarity that unionists and nationalists really didn’t want to copper-fasten cooperation and trust at the heart of government.’
Alex reckons that the British and Irish governments, rebuilding their relationship after the destructive turmoil of Brexit will be a critical factor in shaping local politics here across the coming year, saying that, ‘It is in the interests of both new governments to repair the damage, and it is expected they will begin work fairly quickly. Neither has any particular interest in pushing for a border poll, provision for which is made in the GFA, but it seems likely both will be prepared to discuss and then set in stone the precise terms and conditions for the calling of that poll on whether Northern Ireland wants to remain in the UK or join the Republic of Ireland.’
Setting in stone the precise conditions for the calling of a border poll would be a huge move were it to happen of course, and even though publicising the conditions wouldn’t lead to a poll, it would still be a move that would enormously upset Unionists. Just over a year ago another Unionist commentator, Owen Polley, authored an article in ‘the Newsletter‘ outlining his opposition to detailing the criteria and he was backed in this position by the paper’s editor Ben Lowry. They argue that the timing of a poll is one of the few tactical cards the British government has retained in the constitutional debate and to outline the criteria for triggering a poll (which no future government would find it easy to resile from) they would be surrendering a key advantage for no gain whatsoever.
As at the end of year review, Alex argues it’s important for those of us with an interest in local politics to keep an eye on Leo Varadkar, ‘who seems to be at the pilot stages of building a very broad-based Irish unity vehicle (detached from Sinn Fein). He’s willing to play a longish game, as are Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, the backbone of the incoming coalition.’ The development of such a force in island politics alongside the criteria for a border poll being laid out would, Alex argues “…unsettle unionism, which already knows that British governments don’t have a strategic, economic, political, constitutional or emotional attachment to Northern Ireland. They may have been cheering Sinn Fein’s failure to enter an Irish coalition after the recent election, but history suggests they have more to fear from a British government than Sinn Fein, particularly if a British government is prepared to discuss border poll contingencies with its Irish counterpart.”
Amidst the potential turmoil, Alex concludes by suggesting reform of the institutions as a means of securing some much needed stability, but seems pessimistic on the chances, writing that “It’s hard to see that genuine, cross-community stability is possible. After all these years they haven’t even managed to end the silo approach to policy or embrace a collective responsibility for a ‘Programme for Government’. The institutions swing between existence and limbo and it’s actually very difficult to tell the difference between those two states. To paraphrase Dr McCoy from Star Trek: “It’s government, Jim, but not as we know it.”
If Alex joins us at the next end of year review, we can of course quiz him as to how he feels his predictions have panned out.
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