Another One bites the dust

After thirteen years and many, many, many deaths , I hope you will forgive me for my jubilation at the fall of Syrian monster and latest refugee, Bashar al-Assad. The very best leaders are those who share in the deprivations of those who follow them, but Bashar may have left it a little late to discover how it feels to be driven from his country by an armed conflict, his (many) homes ransacked, the family tomb desecrated (they even burned the disinterred body of his father, though that may have been as much to do with the fact his father was probably an even bigger monster than he himself is) and to know that if he ever sets foot in Syria again he will likely meet a sticky end.

Still, better late than never.

Assad is luckier than his former contemporaries Saddam Hussein (executed by his own people in 2006 after a trial) and Muammar Gaddafi (whose people dispensed with the trial and brutally lynched him) but the Middle East is now short one more dictator who gets to spend the rest of his days in Russia contemplating where it all went wrong, though I would gently suggest oppressing his own people, shooting peaceful protestors and setting up one of the most horrifying prison systems in modern history might have something to do with it. It takes an exceptionally strong stomach to even read the horrifying stories coming out of the liberated Sednaya Prison.

Assad’s fall however leaves Syria at a bit of a crossroads. We’ve seen this before after all, in Iraq and Libya. Once the strongman oppressor is gone, fractious rebel alliances held together by their hate end up turning on each other and indulge in new orgies of violence. Syria does not seem immune, with multiple groups ranging from the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (or HTS for short, formerly the al-Qaeda aligned al-Nusra Front) to the Turkish-backed groups with a more secular bent such as the Syrian National Army (SNA) to the Kurdish rebels and erstwhile American allies of the Syrian Defense Forces (SDF) in the east. People and commentators seem torn over whether these disparate groups can set their differences aside, accept they can’t have everything entirely their own way and work for a pluralistic Syria…or if they will inevitably fall to fighting each other. The world hopes for the former, but dreads the later.

On the international stage, Russia has suffered an unexpected humiliation with the fall of a man it had spent a huge amount of treasure on (and shed quite a lot of civilian blood for). Russian air and naval bases in Syria are critical for Moscow’s ability to project power abroad, allowing Russian forces access to Africa and further afield. Such capacity is critical to Russia’s self-image as a global power, and being deprived of those facilities would be a blow to Putin’s prestige. At the time of writing, it is still unclear whether Syria’s new rulers are minded to allow the forces that bombed and shelled them whilst propping up their oppressive ruler in Damascus to maintain a presence in the country though odds are Putin may end up disappointed.

Iran’s annus horribilus has not let up either. After spending decades painstakingly building up its ‘Axis of Resistance’ to encircle its enemies in the Middle East and spread its influence, Iran has seen that work crumble in just over a year. Israel has rendered Hamas a shadow of its former self. Hezbollah in Lebanon, once the shining jewel in the crown of Iran’s efforts, has been decapitated and degraded. And now Syria, their major ally in the region, the land bridge over which they transported weapons to Hezbollah, has fallen to people who are far less disposed to Iran than their previous ruler was (and who bear a grudge against Iran and Hezbollah for the rule they played in propping al-Assad up). The chances of Iran being able to rebuild their Axis to what it was before is vanishingly remote, meaning it is likely the Islamic Republic will be doing some soul-searching about how to move forward (the nuclear option unfortunately is probably looking extremely tempting at this point).

Israel has taken advantage of the chaos to help itself to a few slivers more of Syrian territory whilst destroying as much Syrian military equipment as it can in a massive campaign of air strikes. Israel has been condemned by much of the international community as a result and asked to withdraw from the territory it has entered, but few expect Israel to comply.

And Turkish President Erdoğan concludes the year with a victory. It is his proxies, or at least forces that are better disposed to him than others, that have triumphed over Assad. Not only will this allow Turkey to put pressure on the Kurdish rebels he sees as part of the PKK terror group, but it means he can begin the process by which the millions of Syrian refugees living in Turkey can be repatriated to Syria (thus solving a political issue for him). Many European countries, including the UK and Ireland, have paused Syrian refugee applications as they wait to see how things pan out on the ground.

We have all just witnessed history. A transcendent moment of joy. A people liberated from the clutches of a tyrant. But that is what it is, it is but a moment. It can all turn to ashes so easily, or reality might just for once match the impressive rhetoric. For the people of Syria I would hope for the later even as I dread the former.