UK Government says Windsor Framework is ‘only available’ basis for stability in NI

The UK Government says the Windsor Framework is “the only available and credible” basis for stability in Northern Ireland, ruling out alternatives. The Government defended the Windsor Framework in a document published ahead of next Tuesday’s vote in the Assembly on whether to extend the post-Brexit trading arrangements (specifically Articles 5- 10 of the Windsor Framework) for a further four years. Within the ten page document, which serves as an explainer

of next week’s vote known as a democratic consent motion, the Government sets out its view that the Windsor Framework is a “necessarily a compromise, to meet the unique circumstances of Northern Ireland”. The document adds that the Government does not believe that there are “alternative or unilateral arrangements available”.

What Next: The vote, due to take place in the Assembly on Tuesday 10 December, has no requirement for cross- community support and can pass by a simple majority. The DUP and other unionist parties have been highly critical of the absence of the requirement for cross-community consent in this vote. It is expected that unionist parties will oppose the deal but will be out-voted by the Assembly’s non-unionist majority, including Sinn Féin, Alliance and SDLP MLAs who have voiced support for retention of the current trading arrangements.

Committee votes to pause plans to consider Alliance Stormont reform proposals

Sinn Féin, the DUP and the UUP have been criticised for opposing reforms of Northern Ireland’s devolved institutions. The Assembly and Executive Review Committee (AERC) voted 6-2 to oppose an Alliance proposal to examine removing the veto that allows the collapse of the Stormont Assembly. According to the Irish News, Alliance MLA Michelle Guy said the outcome was disappointing and a missed opportunity to vote for “stability”. In response, Sinn Féin MLA Declan McAleer stated that his party had not rejected the proposal, but that decisions were deferred until the next AERC meeting, pending further information. SDLP Opposition Leader Matthew O’Toole said it is further evidence that the three parties are “totally unserious about engaging with reform”.

What Next: The Assembly and Executive Review Committee will next meet in February 2025.

NI Secretary of State begins process of repealing Legacy Act

The Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, Hilary Benn, began the process of formally repealing the controversial Legacy Act, BBC News NI reports. Introducted by the Conservatives in 2023, the Northern Ireland Troubles (Legacy and Reconciliation) Act provided for a ban on inquests and civil actions related to incidents during the Troubles~Conflict.

Labour pledged to repeal the Legacy Act if they won the general election in July. Speaking in the House of Commons this week, Mr Benn said he was laying a remedial order which would formally remove the conditional immunity clause from the Act and the ban on new civil actions. He said he would also introduce legislation which would lift the ban on inquests. DUP MP Sammy Wilson criticised the decision, saying it would “result in aging members of the security forces being dragged, once again, through the courts”. Sinn Féin MP John Finucane argued that Mr Benn did not go far enough, in particular by retaining the ICRIR (Independent Commission for Reconciliation and Information Recovery).

SDLP MP Claire Hanna welcomed the statement, but added that challenges remain.

What Next: Mr Benn said the Government “will make further changes to reform and strengthen” the Independent Commission for Reconciliation and Information Recovery’s “independence, powers and accountability”.

Stakeholder Watch

Economy NI: “Today the Executive endorsed Economy Minister @conormurphysf’s proposal to ban onshore oil and gas exploration and production in the north. Read more here”

First Minister Michelle O’Neill MLA (Sinn Féin, Mid Ulster): “This afternoon, I met with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and again made the case for fair and proper funding for our public services.Our public sector workers deserve fair pay for the vital work they do, and people deserve services that are properly funded to meet their needs.I will continue to stand up for workers, families, and public services, and work together with all parties to bring about positive change in people’s lives.”

Chair of the NI Affairs Committee Tonia Antoniazzi MP (Labour, Gower): “The @CommonsNIAC had a busy but productive few days over in Belfast. Discussions covered public service funding, the Windsor framework, the legacy of the Troubles and violence against women and girls, amongst others. My thanks to everyone who met with us for the lively and informative conversations. They are vital to the Committee’s work.”

Mathew O’Toole MLA, (SDLP, South Belfast & Mid Down): “We’re so positive about our future in Europe. From dual market access to youth mobility to a voice in the European Parliament. With the Assembly vote to extend the Protocol next week, we’ll keep championing these opportunities. Read our ideas here”

Other stories

Consumer Council launches new energy research

On Wednesday (4 December) the Consumer Council launched its second annual ‘Attitudes to the Energy Transition’ report. The purpose of the research was to gather evidence of public opinion and sentiment in order to provide the Consumer Council, policy makers, and industry stakeholders with insights into the level of consumer support, education and protection required to meet the net zero goals. Among the key findings were that the number of people concerned about how much energy is used in their home decreased from 62% to 49%.

New research shows NI’s productivity gap has widened

A research report from Queen’s Business School has found that the productivity gap in Northern Ireland has significantly widened, Business Eye reports. NI dropped from 7th to 12th place out of the UK’s 12 regions, and remains behind the Republic of Ireland. However, productivity is still up compared to pre-pandemic levels. The report also finds that R&D expenditure has continued to increase in Northern Ireland, and that access to gigabit-capable internet remains above the rest of the UK. The number of individuals with no or only entry level qualifications has continued to improve, but Northern Ireland still lags behind other regions, with one major contributing factor being out-migration or the ‘brain drain’. The full findings are available on the 2024 Northern Ireland Productivity Dashboard.

Reappointment of members to the AFBI Board

DAERA Minister Andrew Muir MLA announced the re-appointment of five members of the Agri-food and Biosciences Institute Board (AFBI) for a six-month period: Daphne Johnston, Alan Moore, Tim McClelland, Tom Tynan, and Tom Wright. The Irish News notes that Loyalist Communities Council (LCC) spokesman David Campbellhas not been re- appointed.

Infrastructure Minister says “collaboration” needed “to secure modern fit for purpose planning system” Infrastructure Minister John O’Dowd MLA was interviewed in the November edition of AgendaNI, where he discussed the planning landscape almost a decade after major reforms were introduced in 2015. He said that the reforms had led to a significant increase in public participation and engagement with the planning process, but that the system “has also become more litigious in recent years,” adding to delays. He stressed that work to improve the system was ongoing and

that “continued collaboration is required to secure a modern, fit for purpose planning system which delivers the right socio-economic and environmental outcomes for our people.”

Infrastructure Minister approves pay award for NI Water staff

On Thursday (5 December), Infrastructure Minister John O’Dowd MLA approved a pay award of 5% and a one-off payment of £1,500 for NI Water employees. Minister O’Dowd said: “I hope by approving this pay award we can now provide reassurance that there will be no disruption to water supply and wastewater services for all homes and businesses throughout the North.”

Across the border

Parties hold preliminary talks on government formation

Ireland’s political parties have held their first parliamentary party meetings after the general election, with discussions beginning around government formation and potential coalition arrangements. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are likely to form a government with Independent TDs. The Irish Times writes that Fianna Fáil, which has 10 more seats than Fine Gael, is expected to press for its leader, Micheál Martin, to hold the office of Taoiseach first and for longer than half of the next government term, and for a slim majority of Cabinet positions.

Among the Independent TDs, those seen as most likely to support the government include Seán Canney, Marian Harkin, Michael Lowry, Noel Grealish, Kevin ‘Boxer’ Moran, and Verona Murphy. On Wednesday, these TDs formed a Dáil group, along with two first-time Independent TDs, Barry Heneghan and Gillian Toole. Independent groups are entitled to speaking time in the Dáil and committee positions; it is expected that this group could form the basis for talks with the larger parties on coalition arrangements including ministerial positions.

On Friday (6 December), the Social Democrats rejected Labour’s proposal to jointly enter government formation negotiations on a common, centre-left platform, The Journal reports, further ruling out the possibility of a third party entering coalition with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.

RTB release new data on the rental sector

The Residential Tenancies Board (RTB) this week marked 20 years as regulator of Ireland’s rental market and released new data on the state of the rental sector. The Journal reported on average rent for new tenancies surpassing €1,600. At an individual level, around 60% of rental properties did not see an increase in rent, but on average rents are up 4.7% on last year. Rent increases were lower in rent pressure zones (RPZ). The Irish Times reported on the 5.7% increase in the number of registered landlords in the last year, noting that this contradicts claims that landlords are “fleeing the market” because of measures such as rent pressure zones. RTB director Rosemary Steen said “some landlords in the Dublin area are reappearing regionally, and moving their investment,” with senior research officer Brian Gallwey acknowledging that “an additional piece of research does need to be done to find out where these landlords are coming from”.

Landlords with just one property still account for a significant share of tenancies, at 25.8 per cent, but landlords with more than 100 tenancies now account for 12.5% of all tenancies nationally, up from 10.1% one year ago, RTB research shows.

Fiscal watchdog urges incoming government to treat corporation tax receipts with caution

The Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (IFAC) warned the next coalition governmentto be cautious when it comes to the country’s “extraordinary” corporate tax receipts, The Journal reports. In a statement published on Thursday (5 December), the IFAC said that the next government can expect steady growth and substantial tax receipts. “Record employment rates and soaring tax receipts are not expected to unwind soon,” it said. However, it warned that these receipts remain high risk, noting that just three companies account for 40% of corporation tax intake. IFAC have previously advised the Government to adhere to the National Spending Rule, which would limit increases in its “core spending” to 5% or lower each year. However, the outgoing coalition government broke the National Spending Rule every year since it was introduced in 2021.

What we’re reading

Transformation could unlock improved public services for Northern Ireland

Jodie Carson writes in The Irish News that there is an urgent need to transform how we fund public services in Northern Ireland to avoid an ongoing cycle of financial dysfunction. The Budget resulted in more generous funding outcomes for NI than was widely anticipated. The executive’s block grant for 2025-26 is £18.2 billion, which includes an additional

£1.5bn acquired via Barnett consequentials, arising from higher public spending levels in England. However, financial risks remain. A previous overspend of £559 million incurred between 2022-24 was written off as part of the financial package for restoration with the UK Government. This was subject to delivery of a balanced budget in 2024-25 and the development of a budget sustainability plan. Any executive overspend this year could therefore recreate massive financial pressures to the detriment of public services and our economy. As an unfortunate consequence of this financial legacy, a significant proportion of any new funding has already been absorbed by retrospective financial pressures.

Inefficiency is breeding further inefficiency and we face the risk of becoming trapped in a cycle of fiscal dysfunction, Carson continues. Whilst patients languish on waiting lists, there are associated mental health impacts, risks to the incurrence of more severe health outcomes and lost economic activity – all of which are costly to society and our economy. A relative absence of investment in wastewater infrastructure in NI inhibits planning approvals and has resulted in zones where development is no longer viable. This has the potential to act as a brake on economic activity and investment. She concludes that an innovative and refreshed approach to funding public services needs to be mainstreamed across government. There may be value in liaising with academia and industry in this respect, to draw upon and drive strategic research in areas that could unlock efficiencies and solutions.