On the face of it the DUP has retreated to ground it held back in the mid 70s before Peter Robinson got a grip. Ed Poots is now leader. Right up to the announcement it’s clear from the few briefings we could to get Jeffrey thought he was in.
They’ve stuck with the Free Presbyterian Paisley-ite. Not only does it mark the height of Jeffrey’s career in the party (as his fellow defector from the UUP Arlene Foster), it will likely mark the end for some party officers too.
The 19/17 margin in favour of the Lagan Valley farmer (who unlike Jeffrey has been front and centre in Northern Ireland) suggests the party is in two minds about his leadership. Oddly, he has suggested he doesn’t want to be First Minster.
Odd because it only introduces another delay (to add to the one SF have been exploiting for years when Martin McGuinness had to regularly consult with their mysterious leadership), which will hardly be attractive to voters looking for change.
Jeffrey on the other hand had to promise he would step down from Parliament to run for an Assembly seat. All of which suggests that after years of the tightest possible control this is not a situation they either planned for or wanted.
They may not have been able to stomach Arlene Foster, but I doubt that they wanted to start the next chapter in this situation. Mrs Foster gave them a decent time to sort themselves out and this is the best they could come up with.
Having publicly pursued a policy that gave equal credence to young earth creationist stories that date the world at just 6,000 years and then more recently cited scientific evidence for climate change will have real credibility issues in future.
I cannot remember when I ever heard of a party leader stepping down and then leaving the party itself (I’m informed there was one precedent in the south). Edwin is going to need more than a cosmetic make over to keep this whole thing afloat.
With the UUP result to come, the onus will come on to them to begin offering an alternative to try to end the leakage of Unionist voter sentiment to Alliance. But to me that unionists don’t seem too worried about the fate of the union these days.
That’s true in two respects: one, they don’t think it’s under threat; and two they don’t consider the constitutional question worth getting out of bed for. Social issues are important for many unionists, but key economic issues not being dealt with.
It’s an issue the SDLP is starting to recognise through spokesmen like Matthew O’Toole. If Robinson’s broadening of the appeal of the DUP is, as it appears to be, over, what does Ed have in the locker to head off, or deal with a SF First Minister.
Mick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the UK and Europe. Twitter: @MickFealty
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