Weekly Bulletin 14/11/26

Drumcree’s long shadow stretched across Stormont again this week. The first LucidTalk poll since the dispute reignited gave Sinn Féin the biggest jump ever recorded for a single party. In the chamber, DUP tabled a petition of concern against Sinn Féin’s Irish-medium education bill, the Good Jobs Bill was confirmed as unable to pass this mandate, and parties traded blame over who is blocking what at the Executive. Elsewhere, the holiday hunger payments bill passed, Paul Givan ended his officials’ boycott of the Education Committee, and DAERA’s Permanent Secretary accepted responsibility for the Fivemiletown cull failings.
Kurtis Dickson, Senior Account Executive at Chambré Collins

What you need to know

Sinn Féin surges and Irish unity gap narrows in first polls since Drumcree
Sinn Féin has jumped six points to 28% in the first poll since the Drumcree dispute reignited, the biggest rise LucidTalk has ever recorded for a single party, according to the Belfast Telegraph. The UUP is second on 15%, with the DUP and TUV level on 14%, the SDLP on 11% and Alliance on 9%, its first time in single figures in five years. The DUP’s share is its lowest in five years. Every unionist leader has lost ground since Drumcree, while every nationalist leader has gained, with DUP Leader Gavin Robinson dropping eight points to 30% to tie with Naomi Long and Jim Allister as the least popular leader overall. Support for the Executive fell five points to 29%. A second LucidTalk poll for the Belfast Telegraph found that 46% would vote to stay in the UK if a border poll were held now, against 42% for a united Ireland and 12% undecided. The gap was seven points last year and ten points in 2024. Irish unity narrowly leads among voters under 55, while seven in ten unionists say a border poll should never be called. The polls came after Tánaiste Simon Harris launched Fine Gael’s blueprint for Irish unity at the party’s Ard Fheis, which estimates the first-year cost of a united Ireland at between €3.2bn and €25bn.
What Next: Sinn Féin President Mary Lou McDonald has called on the Irish Government to publish a Green Paper on reunification, while the DUP says Northern Ireland does not need a “divisive” border poll. The next quarterly LucidTalk poll is expected in the new year, ahead of May’s Assembly election.

DUP uses petition of concern to block Irish-medium education bill
The DUP has tabled a petition of concern against Sinn Féin MLA Pat Sheehan’s Irish-medium Education (Workforce Plan) Bill, according to BBC News. The bill would require the Department of Education to prepare a workforce plan for Irish-medium schools. The UUP signed the petition and the TUV backed it. DUP Leader Gavin Robinson linked the move to Sinn Féin’s “arrogance” over the Drumcree parading dispute. During Tuesday’s Final Stage debate, according to the Andersonstown News, Mr Sheehan called the petition a “disgraceful abuse of a mechanism designed to protect minorities”, while the DUP’s David Brooks said the party had used a lawful mechanism and that “nobody is being punished”. Exchanges lasted nearly three hours, past midnight, but no vote was held because of the petition. The row continued at Wednesday’s Education Committee, where Mr Sheehan accused UUP Leader Jon Burrows of anti-Irish bigotry, according to the Belfast Telegraph. Mr Burrows said he had opposed the bill from the outset because it duplicated work already under way in the Department and imposed an unnecessary financial burden, not out of hostility to the Irish language.
What Next: The petition’s 14-day consideration period ends on 22 November. Under the mechanisms of the petition of concern, legislation requires majority support from both Unionists and Nationalists to pass. The bill will therefore likely fall due to opposition from the DUP and UUP.

Assembly passes holiday hunger payments bill
The Assembly has passed Sinn Féin MLA Danny Baker’s Education (Holiday Meal Payments) Bill, which will provide financial support during school holidays to lower-income families whose children receive free school meals, according to BBC News. The bill cleared Final Stage on Tuesday (10 November) by 49 votes to 24, with Mr Baker arguing that “poverty isn’t green and orange”. Education Minister Paul Givan called the bill “well intentioned” but “fiscally reckless”, warning that it will cost between £20m and £30m a year and require cuts elsewhere, after a majority of parties last month rejected his Department’s amendments that would have let him delay implementation. UUP Leader Jon Burrows also raised concerns about the lack of dedicated funding, while Alliance and SDLP MLAs welcomed the bill. The cost will fall on a departmental budget that has yet to be agreed for this financial year.
What Next: The bill now awaits Royal Assent. Once it becomes law, payments must begin by the next school holiday covered by the bill.

Stakeholder Watch

Sinn Féin: “The Sinn Féin bill to help put food on the table of over 90,000 children during school holidays has just passed its final stage, brought forward by our MLA Danny Baker! The DUP tried to block this vital support for children, but thankfully they failed. Progressive parties stood together and have made sure this vital bill passed. No child should ever go hungry.”

Deputy First Minister Emma Little-Pengelly (DUP, Lagan Valley): [On the Good Jobs Bill] “Genuinely one of the worst pieces of extreme legislation to ever have been brought forward – it represents a complete failure by the Sinn Fein Economy Minister. If it had progressed it would have been a disaster for the economy, for employment, for jobs and for business. The Minister failed to get any agreement on the legislation from a single business, never mind consensus between the Unions, workers and employers.” Read the full tweet here.

Alliance deputy leader Eóin Tennyson MLA (Alliance, Upper Bann): “The DUP’s attempt to use a sectarian veto to block legislation on Irish medium education is a flagrant abuse of process. No child is a pawn to be used in a selfish party-political game. This Bill is simply about requiring the Department to plan properly to address workforce shortages in the Irish medium sector. It threatens or privileges no one. We need to reform Stormont, fix our broken politics and ensure no single party can hold progress to ransom.”

UUP Leader Jon Burrows (UUP, North Antrim): [Regarding the Holiday Hunger bill] “Free hospital parking was written into law, then postponed most recently because the money wasn’t there. We can’t agree a budget or fund public sector pay rises. We face ballot action. We’ve told the Treasury we’ve searched down the back of every sofa. Yet an unfunded private member’s Bill has added another £30 million a year cost to Education. No child should go hungry. But passing a Bill doesn’t pay the bill or target the support. Where will the money come from and what gets cut?”

Leader of the Opposition Matthew O’Toole: “News of cuts at UTV – gutting what remains of local programming – are devastating. Thoughts first with affected staff @NUJofficial but also deep concern about what will be left of local broadcasting as BBC NI cuts widely and without any accountability.”

Timothy Gaston MLA (TUV, North Antrim): “When does food security get factored into the climate ideology? Mr Muir is the Minister for dither and delay when it comes to protecting family farms.”

Other Stories

Good Jobs Bill shelved as parties trade blame over Executive blockages
Economy Minister Dr Caoimhe Archibald has confirmed that her Good Jobs Employment Rights Bill will not pass before the election, according to BBC News. The DUP had opposed parts of the bill and refused to let it be debated and a coalition of business groups including the FSB and CBI had also opposed sections of it. The DUP had earlier offered to sign off on many aspects of the proposals if the trade union provisions were removed. Sinn Féin has said it will make the bill a priority in the next mandate. The DUP says blocking at the Executive goes both ways, with Communities Minister Gordon Lyons telling his committee that his proposals on anti-social behaviour, a homelessness commission and the social housing development programme cannot get onto the agenda, according to the News Letter.

Permanent Secretary takes responsibility for Fivemiletown cattle cull failings
An independent review has found that the culling of 51 cattle near Fivemiletown in June was lawful, but that its planning and oversight fell short, including carcasses being left exposed overnight, according to BBC News. Agriculture Minister Andrew Muir has accepted all ten recommendations. Giving evidence to the Agriculture Committee on Thursday (12 November) alongside Chief Veterinary Officer Brian Dooher, DAERA Permanent Secretary Katrina Godfrey accepted that arrangements for escalation and senior oversight were not good enough and said she carries responsibility for those shortcomings as accounting officer, according to the News Letter.

Education Minister ends officials’ boycott of scrutiny committee
Education Minister Paul Givan has withdrawn his instruction for Department of Education officials to boycott the Assembly’s Education Committee, according to the Belfast Telegraph. The committee had been considering using its legal powers to compel officials to attend. Mr Givan accepted that an indefinite boycott was “not a sustainable position”, but criticised the committee for taking 41 days to give a substantive response and pointed to the Head of the Civil Service’s view that the questions put to the official had not related to the policy under discussion. Under his new framework, officials will only answer questions within the committee’s remit. Committee Chair Nick Mathison welcomed the U-turn but criticised how long scrutiny had been held up.

Deputy First Minister won’t rule out collapsing the Executive
Deputy First Minister Emma Little-Pengelly has refused to rule out resigning, which would collapse the Executive, if First Minister Michelle O’Neill is found to have acted unlawfully during the Garvaghy Road protest. The DUP is still refusing to allow joint engagements between the two.

Unionist MLAs pull the Stormont Brake on EU customs code
On Thursday (5 November), unionist MLAs triggered the Stormont Brake over the application to Northern Ireland of the EU’s new Union Customs Code. UUP Leader Jon Burrows said the code would mean “substantially more bureaucracy, more regulation, new digital labelling and much more”, while Alliance Deputy Leader Eóin Tennyson called it a “cynical and self-defeating stunt” with a UK-EU summit just weeks away. The Secretary of State must now decide whether the conditions for the brake have been met.

New GP contract agreed
Health Minister Robbie Butler has agreed a new contract with GPs, backed by £20m in each of the next two years to improve patient access to appointments and ending a 12-month dispute with the Northern Ireland General Practitioners Committee. The DUP’s Diane Dodds welcomed the deal but said patients need an end to the “8.30am lottery”, while Alliance’s Nuala McAllister welcomed it but noted concerns raised by the BMA.

Finance Minister consults on Jade’s Law
Finance Minister John O’Dowd has set out plans for a Jade’s Law, which would automatically remove the parental responsibility of anyone convicted of the murder or voluntary manslaughter of a person with whom they share parental responsibility, as part of a wider family law reform consultation that closes on 8 February 2027.

School meal prices rise again
The Education Authority has announced its second rise in school meal prices in just over a year, saying each meal now costs £5.28 to produce, up from £4.28 a year ago. UUP South Antrim candidate Liz Clarke has called for an immediate freeze on prices, describing it as a 31% rise in 13 months.

Home heating oil suppliers to face stricter regulation
Economy Minister Dr Caoimhe Archibald has announced plans for a mandatory code of conduct and a register of suppliers in the home heating oil market, following a Competition and Markets Authority review. Around two-thirds of households rely on heating oil, and prices rose by a record 92% in March, according to BBC News. No timetable has been set.

Across the Border

Dublin hosts European Political Community meeting
50 world leaders gathered in Dublin this week for the ninth European Political Community meeting. The meeting has required the largest security operation in the history of the State, according to RTÉ News. Russia’s war in Ukraine is expected to dominate proceedings. Only three speakers addressed the public plenary session: Taoiseach Micheál Martin, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and European Council President António Costa. It comes amid a series of bomb threats affecting a number of Irish media outlets and European airlines, which are suspected to originate from Russia.

Agreement reached on public sector pay deal
The Government and public sector unions have agreed a pay deal, RTÉ reports. The proposals will deliver pay increases of 10.75% over two years and nine months. Minister for Public Expenditure Jack Chambers said: “It’s a balanced, fair and credible deal for public servants across the country which particularly prioritises the lower paid to help with the cost of living”. The agreement avoided planned strike action which threatened to disrupt the European Political Community meeting in Dublin on Thursday. Unions will now ballot their members on the details of the deal. Elsewhere, the Minister for Justice and Law Society reached a deal to end the dispute over criminal legal aid.

Ray McAdam elected to Seanad Éireann
Fine Gael’s Ray McAdam has been elected to Seanad Éireann, the upper house of the Oireachtas (the Irish parliament’s equivalent to House of Lords). Mr McAdam was previously a councillor in the Dublin Central area, and stood as Fine Gael’s candidate in a recent by-election in the constituency, finishing fifth. He replaces Seán Kyne in the Seanad, who was elected to the Dáil (lower house, equivalent to House of Commons) in the Galway West by-election.

What We’re Reading

Tim Cairns: The divide in unionism runs right through the DUP
In Thursday’s Irish Times, Newton Emerson writes about the SDLP’s proposal to relocate the Northern Ireland Assembly to “more appropriate and more accessible” site in Belfast city centre. While Emerson believes “there is no chance of the Assembly moving”, he credits the idea as “a clever way to generate interest” in reform of the institutions. He writes that while “the public may feel increasingly alienated from devolved Government, there is no evidence this is due to location or architecture”. He does, however, acknowledge that there is a real problem for the people who constitute a “political village” – the politicians, party staff, officials, lobbyists, journalists, and so on. There is “no equivalent of Kildare Street in Dublin or the pubs and clubs around Westminster to socialise and conduct informal business”, save for the Stormont Hotel, which is soon to be turned into a retirement home. Emerson writes while political villages usually find a way come together, Stormont is “highly usual as a large devolved government district on the edge of a provincial city”. “Also,” he adds, “national governments rarely collapse for years at a time”. He suggests that Stormont could “reduce its physical isolation” by opening up the surrounding estate to development, but “it is difficult to build houses or open bars in Belfast due to overloaded sewers and antiquated liquor licensing laws”, demonstrating that “rather than a move, Stormont mostly needs to get a move on”

Forward Look

Wednesday 18 November 2026
North West Future of Energy Conference & Exhibition 2026, White Horse Hotel- Read more here.

Thursday 19 November – Friday 20 November 2026
NIFHA Annual Conference 2026, Slieve Donard Hotel- Read more here.

Saturday 21 November 2026
TEDxStormont, Parliament Buildings- Read more here.

Wednesday 25 November 2026
Housing Rights Private Rented Sector Conference, Skainos Centre, Belfast. Read more here.

Tuesday 8th December 2026
Energy Seminar and Christmas Connect (RenewableNI and A&L Goodbody). Read more here.

Thursday 10 December 2026
NIFHA Housing Finance Conference, DoubleTree by Hilton Hotel Templepatrick- Read more here.

Thursday 10 December 2026
NI Chamber- Public Affairs Forum: Autumn Budget Briefing, Pinsent Masons, Belfast. Read more here.

Monday 14 December – Friday 1 January 2027
Assembly in Recess

Thursday 17 December – Monday 4 January 2027
Commons in Recess

Monday 21 December – Thursday 14 January 2027
Oireachtas in Recess

Wednesday 13 January 2027
KESS- Small Scale Renewable Energy in Northern Ireland: Considerations when legislating. 13:30-16:00, Parliament Buildings, Long Gallery. Read more here.

Thursday 11 February – Sunday 21 February 2027
Commons in Recess

Thursday 18th February 2027
RenewableNI annual conference. Read more here.

Monday 15 March – Thursday 25 March 2027
Oireachtas in Recess

Monday 22 March 2027
Assembly dissolved ahead of election

Thursday 25 March – Sunday 11 April 2027
Commons in Recess

Thursday 29 April – Monday 3 May 2027
Commons in Recess

Thursday 6 May 2027
Deadline for next Assembly election

Thursday 27 May – Sunday 7 June 2027
Commons in Recess

Monday 7 June – Friday 11 June 2027
Oireachtas in Recess

Monday 26 July – Friday 30 July 2027
Oireachtas in Recess