Despite the best efforts of hard-line unionists to bring the narrative of Arlene Foster’s downfall at the hands of the much-maligned NI Protocol, the discussion is almost organically drifting towards values.
The party of Paisley faces the perfect storm as working and middle-class supporters leave them poll after poll straight to the Alliance Party or to the Traditional Unionist Voice. The former departure lounge of the UUP has been exposed as the fractured loose coalition of two opposing world views that it is and has arguably always been – it is no longer a serious option. This ties in perfectly with comments made by Valerie Quinn of the Ulster Bands Forum on GMU:
Valerie Quinn from Coleraine in County Londonderry said she had always voted for the DUP.
She told the BBC’s Good Morning Ulster programme she would be sad to see Mrs Foster go, but added that the DUP needed “root and branch reform, not just the change of person at the top”.
“The biggest problem I can see with the DUP is that they have become ‘big house unionists’, exactly what they accused the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) of being so many years ago.”
She believes the DUP allows too much power to be held by “people in grey suits, those advisors who were never elected. I believe that they control the party, not the leader”.
Values first politics is the norm across western Europe, yet as we know our ‘unique situation’ has subdued it. If we separate socio-economic values from social values the splits within unionism became more complex. At various stages of the troubles, the DUP traversed slight economic leftism with unapologetically social conservatism. Yet on actual policy, it is up to the art of the skilled politician to determine where her political capital should be spent, I will explain this by way of example.
If one takes the inner geographical road/rail belt of County Antrim, starting at Antrim town moving north to Ballymena and ending at a northwestern jut to Coleraine just a few miles over the county line into county Londonderry, these towns held out steadfastly through IRA campaigns and with an Ulster-Scots heritage that prides itself on links with America and beyond. They were the affluent flyover areas of pre-1972 Northern Ireland, receiving first-rate infrastructure and a fair share of foreign direct investment.
To the middle class, these towns are the “bible belt” with the image of Ahoghill born Ian Paisley senior booming scripture laced with political messages of a people betrayed and a lost tribe. Yet increasingly to the working class it feels more like the “rust belt” of Northern Ireland. Factories once the staple of local life have either automated and upskilled to the point where entry requirements are at degree or diploma level, requiring vastly reduced numbers to maintain operations, or they have left these shores completely. Inward migration from eastern Europe has also become commonplace to fill positions in those industries still left.
The old certainties that came with the factories have shifted dramatically within a generation or two. They are gone forever, and I watch short clips from Twitter of young men marching (with their own flutes) through Antrim and Ballymena town centres in protest against the NIP, men who a generation ago would be marching to an assembly line. What is striking is that online these people seem to genuinely think that they can mobilise thousands as they did in 1985 against the Anglo-Irish Agreement. Yet COVID withstanding there is little interest amongst the wider community for such demonstrations – in politics perception can matter as much as reality.
The fact is that although the middle class pulls apart on debates about social values in these places, its socio-economic wellbeing is relatively secured (the ‘grey suits’). Within safe commuting distance of Belfast young professional’s logon every morning to their gateway to the world in the form of multinationals in tech, legal, insurance, financial and other sectors. With it they soak up global values, laced with tolerance and equality rather than the scriptural conditioning of their parents.
Those not opting for the lifestyle of the commuter can avail of the familial connection route and get themselves a position at the family firm. In these towns, it is not very often that the names above the doors aren’t second or third generation. Recently I even saw such a firm use it as a marketing ploy, proudly proclaiming their local service by a local and respected family dedicated to the community – which was laced with racial and sectarian ‘dog whistles.’
The barrier to entry in either of these routes is so high that the third option, emigration, is often taken right across NI. For many working-class kids, it is the only option with any hope for a brighter future. Nobody seems interested in fixing the blatant nepotism and cronyism within our political institutions never mind looking at the private sector. I would put the social costs of nepotism and cronyism on par with the (now rooted out) once rife sectarianism in jobs, Newton Emerson:
Nepotism is the great unmentionable in Northern Ireland’s armoury of fair employment and appointment rules. It seems too intrinsic and inevitable in such a “very small place”, and hence too hard to address. So we courageously assure ourselves that the other rules cover it.
…Manufacturing still has a notorious father-to-son culture, which matters when so much public money is pumped into firms to ensure fairer access to jobs and training.
The infantilising elements within political unionism believe that a new strong leader can now emerge to look after and promote the interests of both these groups. That the working class will be brought into the tent through work with the ‘grass roots’ and that moralists (liberal and conservative – according to Ben Lowry on talkback 5% are projected to swing TUV and 2% are projected to swing Alliance, yet what these figures fail to reflect is the already long-running Alliance swing) can be assuaged; a herculean task.
If resentment about the protocol morphs into political quagmires, such as banning conversation therapy (such a politically innocuous issue, yet it was the straw that broke the camel’s back!) what cards are even left to play? At this stage, the constitutional question seems the only one left that unites all socio-economic groups and to some extent faith in the town’s mentioned above. As that dawns may we all hold our breath for the worst race to the bottom (in electoral terms) in our history.
Photo by vectors icon is licensed under CC0
Jay is a Derry native now living in south Antrim and working in Belfast. His writing spans Law, Economics and International relations.
*He writes in a strictly personal capacity*
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