Edwin Poots (currently) bookies favourite to be next DUP leader

I wouldn’t know one end of a betting slip from the other, but over the years I’ve been fascinated to hear how bookmakers calculate the odds on political events. It’s never just about probability. It’s also about attracting bets, managing potential liabilities by compensating for large bets. Bookmakers are interested in profit over the actual result!

Back in 2012, Paddy Power originally had Danny Kennedy (1/2) as favourite for the UUP leadership and lost money when Mike Nesbitt (who started out at 5/2) easily won the contest against John McCallister.

Brian Graham has appeared at Slugger O’Toole election events in the past to outline the runners and riders in constituency races. So we asked him this morning for his take on the DUP race for leader:

Next DUP Leader

E.Poots – 4/6

J.Donaldson – 2/1

G.Robinson – 4/1

I.Paisley – 6/1

C.Stalford – 6/1

D.Dodds – 7/1

G.Lyons – 7/1

These odds may change …

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19:45 update

and Betfair’s odds …

and Ladbrokes …

and Paddy Power …