Dorcha Lee is a retired Irish Army Colonel, defence analyst, op ed writer and international election observer. He offers a thought experiment. What if Northern Ireland opted for Independence and moved towards a wider confederation?
The official opening of the Celtonian Bridge over the North Channel, on the 12 July 2069, captured the imagination of millions of Celtonians, and easily eclipsed the centenary of the Moon Landing. The new double decker bridge carried the high speed rail link connecting Edinburgh, Glasgow, Belfast, Dublin and Cork, with the upper deck carrying road and protected cycle routes.
By 2069, the Parliaments of all three Celtonian nations, Scotland, Ireland and Northern Ireland, had long agreed that there would be no official events to mark the outbreak of the Troubles in NI, back in 1969. One of the great successes of the Celtonian idea was the final reconciliation of tribal and religious differences, in all three republics. The Celtonian flag, of blue, white and green, with the red hand of Ulster at its centre, was now the dominant flag flown on public occasions. In the thirty years since it was formally established, on the 17 Mar 2039, Celtonia made progress slowly, seeking agreement mostly through consensus rather than through the more divisive concept of majority rule. In this, the leaders of Celtonia were influenced by the de Borda Institute’s Director, Peter Emerson, based in the Celtonian capital, Belfast.
Celtonia might have remained essentially a cultural union but for two seismic political events. In the 2024 UK General Election campaign, the UK Labour party promised to hold two referendums if they were elected, one in Scotland on independence, and the other in Northern Ireland on its future. When they were elected, the new Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer, set the 18th Sept 2026 as the date for IndyRef 2 in Scotland. However, taking into account the growing strength of a Northern Irish identity, as revealed in the Mar 2021 Census, he opted to hold two NI referendums.
The first NI Referendum held on the 18th Sept 2027, had three options on the paper, remain with the UK, reunification/unification with the Republic and the third, a supported independence option. A second referendum would be held one year later in Sept 2028, with the two best supported options on the ballot slip. The new Sinn Féin-led Government in the South readily agreed to hold its two option ballot on Irish unity on the same day as the first NI Referendum.
The result was a total political mess. The Sept 2026 Referendum in Scotland, IndyRef 2, was carried by less than 1%, prompting the UK Government to challenge its outcome, in its own courts. The first NI referendum in Sept 2027, split three ways, with 36% voting remain, 33% for a supported independence and only 31% for a united Ireland. In London, Sir Keir resigned and was replaced by Jeremy Corbyn. In the Republic, 54% supported a united Ireland with 46% against. However, many ballot papers were deliberately spoiled.
The follow up Referendum in NI, in Sept 2028, which, by then, came as no surprise, showed a narrow 52% majority for supported independence, 48% for remain.
No one was happy. The whole run of referendums left everyone with the jitters.
But what if a new solidarity could be built to sustain all three jurisdictions? What if Celtonia was the solution? Such a union, comprising over 12m people, would be greater than its component parts. Its territorial area (land and seas) would be over 1.5m km2, making it one of the largest countries in Europe. It would have the potential of creating a strong viable economy with significant natural resources.
It would help to offset the adverse effects of Brexit and would facilitate the likelihood of Scotland and NI returning to full membership of the EU. Jane Morrice, the former Deputy Speaker of the NI Assembly, has bravely come out in favour of Scotland, Ireland and NI coming together in an arrangement to form a Celtic association, to play a future role in the EU similar to BENELUX.
If NI opted for a supported independence, it could get financial backing and other support from the two larger Celtonian nations, the EU and possibly the US and Canada.
Celtonia could start initially as a forum for promoting culture, tourism, and trade within the scope of the devolved powers given to Scotland and NI. After Scottish independence, the option of a political union would develop gradually and, initially at least, as a loose confederation of independent states, where the dominant balance of sovereignty would rest with each member state. Each member state would have a veto on all legislation produced by the Celtonian Parliament.
And what about UK, in all of this? Big question.
Anyway, let us hope the UK sticks around long enough to build that bridge!
Photo by Free-Photos is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA
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