New data showing “First Doses First” strategy is working may speed UK’s vaccination progress…

This comes via the marvellous John Naughton’s substack feed… It’s from Alex Tabbarok on Marginal Revolution…

First, as I mentioned yesterday, we now have epidemiologists and vaccine researchers saying that for people previously infected with COVID a second dose is not necessary and may be “overkill.” Given how many people have had COVID, this increases the net benefit to First Doses First for everyone significantly.

Second, an important new study verifies that for the AZ vaccine a longer delay for the second dose is better because it generates a more powerful immune response (picture from the FT). This is a common finding for vaccines. The authors write:

“ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccination programmes aimed at vaccinating a large proportion of the population with a single dose, with a second dose given after a 3 month period is an effective strategy for reducing disease, and may be the optimal for rollout of a pandemic vaccine when supplies are limited in the short term.”

In addition “Analyses of PCR positive swabs in UK population suggests vaccine may have substantial effect on transmission of the virus with 67% reduction in positive swabs among those vaccinated.” In other words, the vaccine cuts transmission risk.

 

Much of what’s said through this crisis has arisen because as settled western and bureaucratic societies we are unused to the idea that we just don’t know what’s going on. We run to demagogic certainties that quickly turn out not to be true.

In the UK it’s herd immunity until you discover that the cost in lives will be unacceptably high, so you reverse and lockdown comes forcing a parsimonious Conservative administration turn on its own ‘deep’ belief in austerity on its head.

Then a little foresight on the part of boffins in Oxford, combined with a big pharma company who had figured a few  years back that publicly funded research was faster, smarter and more efficient than its own proprietary R&D and all is changed.

Now, herd immunity is on the horizon again. This time without the huge cost in lives that made the concept so hated by many commentators in Ireland who have recently been caught in circular discussions about whether one dose or two is better.

Alex notes however that in the UK the medical establishment is coming on to the ground of first doses first, he says, “consider this from the Four UK’s Chief Medical Officers“:

The 4 UK Chief Medical Officers agree with the JCVI that at this stage of the pandemic prioritising the first doses of vaccine for as many people as possible on the priority list will protect the greatest number of at risk people overall in the shortest possible time and will have the greatest impact on reducing mortality, severe disease and hospitalisations and in protecting the NHS and equivalent health services.

Two things worth noting here. One, Alex majors on the tragedy of the US regulator dragging its feet on approving the Oxford AZ vaccine (where they have a huge production facility in Baltimore), which mirrors the one in Europe.

According to RTÉ’s Six One news last night, the problem for the EMA remains a lack of original data, rather than particular clinical concerns over the efficacy of the vaccine. In the UK, supplies are expected to be constrained to 1 million a week.

By the beginning of March the rate is expected to rise to something between 3 and 5 million doses per week. That ought to be the beginning of a slow transition back to whatever normal looks like after all of this. For Northern Ireland, at least.

Photo by WikiImages is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA

Photo by HakanGERMAN is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA

Mick Fealty

Mick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the UK and Europe. Twitter: @MickFealty