A border poll yields pride of place to good government at Stormont. Will the parties get the message?

We’re told it’s the most thorough survey of political attitudes in years                      (what, more than the NI Life and Times surveys?). It shows the graph has tilted over a just a little more in favour of united Ireland, confirming that those who Don’t Know or declined to answer – an  odd description of the middle ground – hold the balance.  I’m caught between concern about growing tension as the day approaches and hoping that near equality between the two poles will in the end produce healthier politics. For split as they do every so often, the system forces them back again. And the voters have cottoned on. No more is the real business of government for wimps while the real people obsess over the constitutional question.

The headline results give the pro Union side (I describe it more expansively than “unionists”) –  a breathing space to update its case in the light of Brexit damage and continuous demographic pressures

This I think is the most prudent line to take from the results rather than Unionists going cock a hoop over 52% opting to remain in UK.  Nearly three-quarters of ‘Other’ voters support the Union, and only 29 % would vote for unity if there was a border poll tomorrow.  The low unity figure shows that the flurry of excitement that greeted Sinn Fein’s promotion to one of three leading parties in the Republic has failed to generate  a similar “seismic “response among northern nationalists. The findings are the latest   revelation of a mature electorate after the UK general election less willing than ever to vote along the old tramlines.  Which is quite a development.  Is nothing inevitable any more except death and taxes?

More remarkable is the paradox of 80% voting in favour of the Assembly from opposite sides that barely transfer votes.  Both the DUP and Sinn Fein get the message that the Assembly is the route to their different nirvanas. They can’t both be right except in the sense that the sort of outcome each wants –based on acceptance if not wild enthusiasm on the part of the losers –   can only be can achieved under stable conditions.  I can’t imagine a border poll being called in chaotic conditions, can you?

Apart from complaining about lack of funding, the reconvened Assembly has to decide how to comply with the undeniable will of the people to implement the New Decade New Approach agreement.

A new report Sectarianism: Key Facts commissioned by body called the Equality Coalition of the voluntary sector and trade unions, calls for more radical action against sectarianism. The concept of working for good community relations is “out of date “claims its author Dr Robbie McVeigh and should be replaced by a sector by sector equality audit. McVeigh devotes much space to attacking the supposed shortcomings of  Sectarianism, A Review  by Prof Duncan Morrow last year, which McVeigh believes is  seriously flawed for settling for managing the impact of sectarianism  rather than eliminating it . Morrow makes the interesting point that much pressure against sectarianism used to come from outside, that is mainly from Westminster, but Brexit changed all that.  After the three year standoff the local parties may discover their own momentum in survival.

Both reports emphasise how the trend towards to a Catholic majority changes the character of sectarianism both for good and bad- some gaps of entitlement have narrowed but some attitudes have hardened, His Sectarian Disparity Audit is modelled on a Race Audit begun in England.  His ideas bristle with problems, not least the fact that our two sides are equally represented in government unlike the ethnic balance in England and there is no agreed definition of sectarianism in law, nor is there likely to be. Nonetheless McVeigh usefully points to chronic problems which remain to be addressed in concepts like A Shared Future.

Can the Assembly parties reconcile the unambiguous demand of a still chronically divided community to work together for an agreed common interest while at the same time manoeuvring around the prospect of a border poll? No doubt much relieved by her own opinion  rating , Arlene Foster promises New Generation Unionism while Sinn Fein will doubtless resume pressure on the new government to begin “preparing for unity once the tortuous business of forming it is over. Perhaps one of these days they’ll all turn to the people’s priorities and produce a programme for government that can actually be implemented.  You can imagine the reaction to the proposal for an audit of sectarianism. Who could afford to be left out and who would comply tamely with its findings?

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