The results of the Westminster election have ensured that, for the first time in the history of Northern Ireland, non-unionists are a majority of those elected to each of the four representative bodies in which we send our elected representatives: local government councils, Stormont, the European Parliament and Westminster.
The significance of that can not be underestimated.
Northern Ireland has changed.
In 1983, 15 of the 17 MPs elected from the North were unionists, with Gerry Adams and John Hume the other two Members of Parliament elected 36 years ago. Today, there are more Nationalist MPs than Unionist MPs.
Boris Johnson’s decisive majority at Westminster, coupled with the SNP’s dominance in Scotland, will render almost inevitable a second Scottish Independence referendum as Johnson’s government close the deal on Brexit in spite of local unionist protestations.
In yesterday’s Irish Independent, Martina Devlin summarises the election’s significance for Northern Ireland:
What’s materialised on the political landscape north of the Border is also historic. And while predicted at some stage, its arrival is remarkable to witness. This isn’t a shift on a par with the earthquake in Britain, where Corbynism was rejected conclusively, but it does represent a significant movement – not alone for nationalism but for the centre ground, where the Alliance vote continues to expand.
The result is conclusive in more ways than one. The Withdrawal Agreement will pass in the British parliament – Brexit will get done finally. And power-sharing at Stormont will be back in business next month. The political will to return is widespread and intransigence has had its day, at least for now.
How the Alliance behaves in government will be fascinating to observe. Where does it see Northern Ireland’s future? Its adherence to the union cannot be taken for granted. Perhaps for now – like many voters – it simply wants politics as normal, with issues such as the health crisis dealt with.
There was no surge in favour of the union, despite the DUP circling the wagons and attempting to channel one. All the party did was alienate liberal unionism. The DUP’s influence is at a low ebb currently. Both the DUP and UUP are diminished by this electoral result, the latter relegated to the increasingly irrelevant corner with no MPs elected.
In this context of momentous political changes being experienced and the overwhelming evidence of electoral shifts in Northern Ireland, it is also obvious that we are moving towards a Border Poll on the question of the constitutional future of the North at some point in the medium term future.
It has been interesting to watch and listen to opponents of Irish unity attempt to close down both the very idea of discussing Irish unity or of a Border Poll. Terms like dangerous, reckless and even provocative have been employed in a vain attempt to shut down the discussion.
Alas, recognition of the need to prepare and plan is dropping slowly, but at least it’s dropping.
In November, a letter from more than 1,000 prominent figures in Irish society was published in The Irish Times calling for the Taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, to convene a constitutional forum or a citizens assembly to explore the constitutional future for this island. Significantly, the clear majority of those signing the letter were from the Republic and included many well-known figures like Fintan O’Toole and David McWilliams.
The call for a citizens’ assembly to explore the constitutional future and arrangements for the island had already been gathering a head of steam prior to this election. Those calls will only intensify now. As opposed to vainly seeking to close down discussions and running away from them, look to the mainstream Southern political parties eventually determining that a more responsible position will be to help take ownership of leading and guiding the process. Back to Martina Devlin:
Clearly, constitutional change is on the way and needs to be managed. Groups such as Ireland’s Future calling for discussion and planning about new arrangements, through such models as a Citizens’ Assembly, have been proven right.
This electoral result must translate into pressure on the two governments to discuss pathways leading the region back into the EU. Stormont will have a key role to play here.
2020 looks set to be a fascinating year. If a deal can be reached addressing the outstanding issues, as was nearly the case in February 2018, the devolved institutions could be back up and running within a few months.
Whether or not all of the political parties entitled to places around the Executive table opt in to power-sharing government will be an interesting development, not least given that the state of public services will mean that many difficult and challenging decisions will have to be taken by those who show up at Stormont.
There are many lessons to be learned from the Westminster election.
Political unionism is at its lowest ebb.
Sam McBride was correct to describe this as a “calamitous result” for the DUP.
They have lost their influence at Westminster and with it their Commons Leader, are two seats down in Belfast, have ceded a strongly Unionist constituency (North Down) to Alliance and have reduced unionism to minority status. Little wonder that the words of wisdom spoken by an exasperated Mike Nesbitt during the BBC’s election coverage have received such attention. The Loathing and Fear strategy was an abject failure.
The DUP have plenty of food for thought from this election. They will take some comfort in the fact that their vote share did not decline as steeply as that of Sinn Fein, but the price paid for their stewardship of the Union has been to render support for political Unionism to its smallest level in the history of the Northern Ireland state.
Explaining away Nigel Dodds’ defeat, Arlene Foster stated that “the demography just wasn’t there.”
That will soon be the case for the whole of Northern Ireland. Can unionism change direction in time?
Northern Irish politics is changing. Alliance will challenge the SDLP for third party status henceforward, and this election proves beyond doubt that, for many across our society, including republicans, dogma has diminishing currency.
Campaigns built on hope and promise, promoting outreach and a broader vision for Northern Ireland, for Ireland or a continued place in Europe, were spectacularly successful.
Alone amongst candidates from the two main parties, John Finucane was able to ride the same electoral wave that delivered the stunning successes for Stephen Farry, Claire Hanna and Colum Eastwood precisely because his words and actions as Lord Mayor and Sinn Fein candidate struck a chord with the broad swathe of unsettled voters who, elsewhere, shifted from the established parties within the Unionist and Nationalist blocs to Alliance and, to a lesser extent, to the SDLP.
Successful political parties are, by nature, adaptable, sensitive to the changing moods affecting the distinct voting groups that collectively make up their electorates. Both Sinn Fein and the DUP grew exponentially in the 2017 elections, so a level of drop-off in support was expected this time around.
However, the Sinn Fein performance (John Finucane apart) was particularly disappointing, though the party did manage to return with 7 seats, a significant feat in itself. The 22.8% share of the vote secured by Sinn Fein was its worst performance at Westminster level since 2001 and, were these results to be repeated at Assembly level, a quarter of the party’s seats would be swept away.
Republicans will know that the party’s stance on abstentionism undoubtedly hurt them in Foyle and across many other constituencies where voters had become disillusioned with both the political stalemate at Stormont and the party’s absence from the Westminster stage. The successful defence of South Down was a largely unappreciated significant achievement. It is a constituency as strongly SDLP traditionally as Foyle, yet Hazzard is a post-GFA candidate cut from the same cloth as Finucane. After Eastwood’s crushing defeat of the party in Foyle, Sinn Fein will have realised that the party needs an entirely new face and direction for the city.
The difficulty posed by abstentionism for Sinn Fein was compounded due to the absence of Stormont. Abstentionism is a party position that it has been comfortable with and that has been supported (and will continue to be) by many of its activist base. Republicans will be in no doubt that retaining the policy will continue to come at an electoral price.
In their favour, republicans will know that Johnson’s decisive Westminster majority will render their abstentionist stance a more academic issue for some voters as politics moves on beyond the age of Bercow, the indicative votes and a Confidence and Supply deal which, ironically, provided no confidence to the DUP and supplied them only with an Irish Sea border as their reward for foolishly backing the Brexit project.
Sinn Fein’s focus will rapidly return to the South as a Dail election nears. Mary Lou McDonald will hope that the positive by-election performances in Dublin Mid-West and Cork North-Central prove to be indicators for a decent outing, potentially positioning the party to be kingmakers for a Fine Gael-led or Fianna Fail-led administration in spite of what is said on that in the preceding campaign.
The SDLP have emerged from this election rejuvenated and with a renewed sense of hope and direction. This has been Colum Eastwood’s finest hour. His decision to withdraw candidates from a number of key constituencies facilitated the Claire Hanna landslide in South Belfast and secured the momentous defeat of Nigel Dodds. As importantly, the manner in which he forcefully and effectively owned that position publicly whilst also standing his own ground, attacking Sinn Fein as well as the other parties allowed him to regain the support of a section of voters lost to Sinn Fein whilst also positioning the party to benefit in Foyle and South Belfast from the unsettled swathe of progressive voters who, elsewhere, plumped for Alliance.
There are real lessons to be learnt by the SDLP leader from this campaign. Firstly, the party benefited because they jettisoned a principled opposition to pacts that, whilst laudable, contributed to a sense of collective frustration and to a perception of the party as weak and ineffective. It was that decision which opened doors previously closed for Eastwood in many nationalist areas, and the effective manner in which he owned and articulated the decision allowed the party to bat away any notion that they were endorsing merely the flip side of pan-Unionism.
But the SDLP’s success has to be put into context.
A return of two MPs is much better than no MPs, but it is still the second worst result (in terms of representation) for the party since 1983. After all, the SDLP had three seats until the election of May 2017. Providing a credible challenge to Sinn Fein’s ascendant position within nationalism will require the SDLP taking measures to own the Unity discussion in their own style. The Fianna Fail link was Eastwood’s project, and whilst it has contributed to tensions between the two MPs in the past, success has form in healing old wounds. The lesson for the SDLP from the election of December 2019 is that taking bold decisions and owning them can yield dividends.
The Ulster Unionist Party have had another ‘mare, this time under the leadership of an already under fire Steve Aiken. His early flip-flop on contesting all 18 seats neatly summed up the dilemma which continues to face the minority party within unionism. There has been no tangible effort made to distinguish the party from the DUP and, as a consequence, liberal minded pro-Union voters continue to flock to the Alliance Party. As things stand, in the eyes of most unionists, there appears to be no real reason for the continued existence of the party unless and until it decides to find a distinct place on the political spectrum. The space currently unoccupied is one where a pro-Union voice embraces an Irish Language Act, is comfortable with a Northern Ireland for those who are Irish and is relaxed about progressive change in our society.
Finally, to the Alliance Party, the undisputed winners of the hat-trick of elections in 2019.
There can be no question now but that Alliance have arrived across the north of Ireland. This election was not simply significant due to the North Down breakthrough for Stephen Farry. Right across the north, in majority unionist and majority nationalist constituencies, Alliance candidates recorded significant advances which, in the event of this performance being repeated at any forthcoming Assembly election, will result in up to 20 seats being returned for the party.
Naomi Long is a brilliant communicator, and the party’s unwavering message of hope and focus on positivity whilst growing to embrace voices openly pro-Unity alongside those openly pro-Union continues to capture the interest and allegiance of a growing number of voters across the state. Managing that will become a challenge for the party in the time ahead, and it will need to find a way to engage positively with the developing Unity discussion and debate.
On current numbers, the party looks set to be in Opposition to any newly-formed Executive which, ironically, may suit it very well given the difficult challenges facing Executive Ministers. Whether or not they are joined by the SDLP and Ulster Unionist Party on the Opposition benches remains to be seen.
The Brexit deluge may subside in the time ahead and the waters fall short, but our steeples don’t look so dreary now.
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