NI European Election Data Modelling Exercise

With political polling in Northern Ireland still extremely rare, it is always interesting to see what LucidTalk produce, and with the European election barely a week away many people have been eagerly awaiting the results of their first European election poll.

Whilst the headline results are interesting, it is when we delve deeper into their dataset that we can create a model which gives an insight into where the 3 MEP seats could end up.

Note on the method: this process has been carried out only using the data provided with some minor imputations for the smaller candidates, which will be explained at each stage of the count model.

For the purpose of this exercise I have made the assumption that turnout will be the same (52.7%) as the local government election held on 2^nd May, but in reality this is purely for illustrative purposes as the projected number of votes do not matter at this point.

Indicative quota

Based on a turnout of 52.7% the calculated quota for this exercise is 165,159

= +1 = = +1 = 165,159

First Count

These figures show that Sinn Féin’s Martina Anderson should be elected on the first count having reached the quota and that the DUP’s Diane Dodds is likely to take the second seat but will rely on transfers. The third seat cannot be called at this point and whilst the SDLP leader Colum Eastwood is in prime position it is only through the analysis of transfers that we can get a better picture of how the count may evolve.

Stage 1

Stage 2

At this point Martina Anderson’s surplus will be reallocated as she is just over 14,000 votes over quota. According to LucidTalk her second preferences will be distributed accordingly:

DUP 0.3%, SDLP 23.9%, UUP 0.3%, Alliance 42.0%, Green 14.5%, Morrice 1.3%, Non-Transferable 17.6%.

As a result of this stage Long has moved ahead of Kennedy, from fifth place to fourth place, but she remains almost 10,000 votes behind Eastwood in third place.

Stage 3

Following the redistribution of Anderson’s surplus the decision would be taken to exclude McCann, Bhogal, Morrice, and Hill, because the sum of their votes would not be enough to alter the order of Bailey and Allister. Bailey would also then be excluded, as her transfers could not enable her to catch up with Allister. LucidTalk does not produce transfer splits for McCann, Bhogal, Morrice and Hill, but does for Bailey, so accordingly the following imputations have been made:

McCann- 200 votes to Eastwood, 200 votes to Long and 261 votes non-transferable.

Bhogal- 200 votes to Allister, 200 votes to Kennedy, 200 votes to Dodds and 61 votes non-transferable.

Morrice- 3000 votes to Eastwood, 3000 votes to Long and 3249 votes non-transferable.

According to LucidTalk the second preference votes of Bailey will split as follows:

SDLP 5.6%, UUP 2.8%, Alliance 71.3%. 9.8% of votes to Sinn Féin and 0.7% to McCann but these votes will be treated as non-transferable, alongside the 2.8% of Bailey first preference votes which were actually non-transferable.

This is a key stage as it has moved Long ahead of Eastwood into third place.

Stage 4

At this point Jim Allister would be excluded as the transfers from stage 3 were not sufficient for him to overtake the next placed candidate, Naomi Long. According to LucidTalk, Allister’s second preferences will split as follows:

DUP 56.6%, SDLP 1.1%, UUP 19.5%, Alliance 1.1% and UKIP 14.9%. As the UKIP candidate has already been eliminated by this stage, the decision was made to combine the UKIP transfer with the UUP transfer, thus allocating Danny Kennedy 34.4% of Jim Allister’s transfers.

At this point the DUP’s Diane Dodds has reached the quota and she will have been deemed elected. However, it will probably be likely that her surplus (428 votes) will not be redistributed as it is smaller than the difference in votes between the lowest placed candidate, Eastwood, and the next placed candidate, Long. Significantly the votes from Allister to Kennedy have moved the UUP candidate into fourth place, just over 3,000 votes ahead Eastwood. At this point the SDLP leader would be excluded.

Stage 5

Eastwood’s votes will be redistributed to the remaining two candidates (Long and Kennedy) and according to LucidTalk his transfers will split as follows:

Alliance 71.8%

At this point Long is 76,958 votes ahead of Kennedy. Dodds’ surplus of 428 votes remains in play, as it has not been redistributed, but as it is not sufficient for Kennedy to overtake Long, it will not be counted and Long will have been deemed elected having reached the quota. Even if Kennedy were to pick up 28.2% of Eastwood’s transfers he would still end up 50,000 votes behind Long.

Conclusion

As stated above this is simply a model which has been constructed using the data provided by LucidTalk. It should carry the health warning that it is not a prediction and is simply a scenario that could play out if the data is correct. The poll has a margin of error of +/-2.6% and this should be taken into consideration when reading the results. This is particularly relevant because at Stage 4, after the elimination of Allister, Kennedy is 3,000 votes ahead of Eastwood, well within the margin of error of the poll, so all of this needs to be taken with a pinch of salt.

The LucidTalk results also indicate just how transfer friendly Naomi Long appears to be and it remains to be seen whether this is, in fact, the case when the votes are counted. It also highlights the importance of Danny Kennedy maximising transfers from the TUV, which will be one of his few sources of additional votes, and for Colum Eastwood to attract as many transfers as possible from Martina Anderson’s small surplus and Clare Bailey’s potentially sizeable amount of transfers. LucidTalk have a solid reputation and predicted both the Brexit referendum and the 2017 Assembly election to within 1% of the actual results so despite my numerous health warnings these figures are as likely a prediction of results as we are likely to see.

What this really tells us is that the race for the third seat is going to be very tight and that the spin from the SDLP, the UUP, the Alliance (and even Jim Allister) isn’t just spin this time: all four candidates could credibly win the seat if the transfers break their way on Thursday 23^rd May.