“The backstop is the either/or question that will face the government of this country…”

What a night. But after all the hyperventilating it is clear that nothing is clear. The government lost three votes in a row, but probably the most notable one was the first in the which the Commons demanded that a No Deal be taken off the table for good.

But of course, it is only a motion. Nothing will change until the legislation is changed to accommodate something like an extension is negotiated with the EU, or a final deal is agreed in the timeframe provided by Article 50.

Unlike the self actualising realms of social media, Parliament has to vote for something not just express its disgust or protest at the droch rud that might happen.

Furthermore, the government cannot simply bring forth the same deal that was previously rejected. Former Labour MP Derek Wyatt tweeted this morning:

https://twitter.com/wyattd/status/1106132469823225856

So Dan O’Brien speaking on RTÉ’s Prime Time programme on Tuesday evening was entirely correct to note that Ireland’s troubles are far from over, and that the risk of a no deal Brexit hasn’t gone away you know.

He argues that the Irish government’s attempt to insure that a trade border absolutely never exists on the island is driving up the risk of such a worst case outcome.

This was the night before that potentially ruinous tariff schedule was published. Something he deals with in very direct terms in his column today:

The starkness of the detail and the hard numbers brought home what is looming. In just 15 days the UK is scheduled to leave the EU. Those who would be most affected by these new import taxes – farmers and food producers – reacted in almost apocalyptic terms, and not without good reason.

London’s other big announcement yesterday – a commitment not to police the northern side of the Border on this island for a year after a no-deal Brexit – highlighted the very uncomfortable position Dublin is in. [Emphasis added]

So there is an incentive, not to get rid of the backstop (it might have been better to give it rather less ‘concretised’ name) but to tweak enough to fill the gap between where the DUP are and where by Brian’s account the Irish government want them to be.

Unless the Speaker is unfeasibly generous, to get the deal past Parliament something must give on the EU/Irish side. As one senior political source in Dublin remarked this week, if you are going to tweak something it needs to be big enough to get the job done.

Mick Fealty

Mick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the UK and Europe. Twitter: @MickFealty