Tory momentum won’t sweep away call for IndyRef2

The results are in and the Local Government outcomes in Scotland, Wales and (much of) England are no great surprise.

Beyond Hadrian’s Wall Labour lost their majority on Glasgow City Council after nearly 40 years dominance. Well over 100 Scottish council seats turned Conservative blue, the majority of which were previously rose-red.

There are two competing Indyref2 narratives in Scotland at the moment. One that the Tory revival is somehow a defeat for the SNP and their call for a second referendum, that Scotland has reached ‘peak-Nat’. The other being that the SNP have again emerged as the largest party and will romp home in the Westminster election next month thereby justifying their call for a second referendum.

We now live in an age where parties either have a clear political message – or they die. In Scotland if you want independence you vote SNP and if you support the union you vote Conservative. If you’re pro-remain you vote SNP if you want Brexit ‘to mean Brexit’ you vote Tory. Scottish Labour are flirting with federalism but it is a position that is in response to the SNP, a reactive policy. They give the public the impression of a political party fumbling about for an identity. And if you are not sure where you stand on independence (never mind Brexit) then how can voters be sure?

Labour are finished in Scotland. It was well on its way to political irrelevance before Jeremy Corbyn became leader.

Whenever the (previously Toxic) Tories can win a seat in Shettleston  and in some of the most deprived places in the country its clear that people are not voting according to the Conservative party position on the redistribution of wealth. They are deciding to cast their ballot on the matter of the Union and/or the European Union.

Theres no doubt that all the momentum is with the Tories across the water at the moment. However it seems that the predicted trouncing of Labour in Wales will not happen at the General Election and that they will remain by far second place to the SNP in Scotland.

A majority of MPs returning to Westminster next month will belong to the SNP. The Scottish Parliament has voted  to again put the constitutional question to the people. When the dust settles after the snap Westminster poll IndyRef2 will still be on the table.

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