#MarRef15: Tallies and Results Live Blog…

Live Blog #Marref Tallies and Results Live Blog

Mick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the UK and Europe. Twitter: @MickFealty

  • Jag

    Marriage equality:
    Current prediction 65% yes with 75% in urban areas and 60% in rural areas.

    FF to take Carlow-Kilkenny (this is the 7th by-election which SF have lost, though I’d predict SF get 17% of vote, enough to get candidate elected in constituency in 2016)

    Lowering presidential age eligibility from 35 to 21: I think this could well be defeated.

  • Seán Rickard

    Lucky it doesn’t include NI.

  • mickfealty

    The tallies are mostly CW and some of the percentages are flowing all over the shop from the earlier figures Jag.. I’m not sure about your second prediction there. Can’t see why they are voting on it, but I don’t see why anyone would find a motive to vote against it…

  • Jag

    Absolutely, why would we want to allow the gays get ideas above their station, which is exactly what we’d be doing in recognising their love for one another is somehow on a par with heterosexuals.

    And mark my words, it’s just the thin end of the wedge what they’re doing down South; next, it will be brother marrying sister and man marrying cat.

    And it will be a nightmare for the heteros to book wedding venues or get on adoption lists because the gays will get first dibs on the best hotels and babies. They’re on their way to Hell (and fabulousness) in a handcart.

  • Jag

    Sorry Mick, these are my personal predictions and not official tally estimates or suchlike, I had indeed seen some tallies on the marriage referendum but nothing for Carlow-Kilkenny or presidential age.

  • mickfealty

    I posted some earlier in the live blog Jag…

  • Jag

    Well Mick, if it transpires either of us is correct, I’ll happily forgo any credit for perspicacity if my predictions matched yours, though in fairness, I can’t see anything at all about Carlow Kilkenny or presidential age in your postings.

  • Robin Keogh

    Fantastic result for SF, I was praying we would hit 15% to secure a seat next time out in a constitueny that has had no SF organisation up until quite recently. 17% would be double our last vote. Great days work !

  • Jag

    First tallies with around 50% counted (so it could change a LOT) show FF on 24%, FG on 20% and SF on 18% with Labour on a very surprising (and impressive for them) 11% and Renua nowhere (which is surprising because they have a very good candidate).

    However, it’s still very early days with the final count not expected until late tonight (transfers will be king-making). We should have a very good steer by 6pm and know the 1st pref votes by then, still think SF will be on 17% first preferences.

  • mickfealty

    I haven’t been watching it to be honest… I’m supposed to have been somewhere else a couple of hours ago… 🙂

  • mac tire

    Actually provisional numbers I have seen suggest Renua are on around 10% and Labour on 9%.
    I agree with your SF figure. 17% would be quite good for them here.

  • Jag

    Mac, the figures are changing all the time, this from RTE a couple of minutes ago “With 80% of boxes opened in the Carlow-Kilkenny by-election, Fianna Fail’s Bobby Aylward is still in the lead on 26.5%. Next is Fine Gael’s David Fitzgerald on 21%.Sinn Fein is on 16%, Renua 9.4%, Labour 7.3%, Greens 5.4%, Independent Breda Gardner is on 4%, People Before Profit on 3.7% and AAA on 3.4%”

    That’s a more understandable result for Renua and also for Labour but with 20% of boxes (not necessarily the same as 20% of votes) still to be tallied, tbese figures could still change a lot.

    It will come down to transfers, but I’d be shocked if FF don’t get the seat.

  • chrisjones2


    I fear you have misunderstood.

    When you hear men talking about “looking for pussy” please be reassured – they are not interested in felines

  • Jag

    At 5.20pm with 97% of boxes tallied – FF 28%, FG 21%, SF 17%, Renua 9%, Labour 7%, all relate to 1st preferences, the transfers will now come into play.

    Looks like FF. FG will be mildly disappointed. SF should be happy enough (3-7% below opinion polls for sure, but enough to get a seat next year). I though Renua would do better because their candidate is well-known. Labour heading for oblivion in 2016, no question. Micheal Martin is safe enough for time being. FG/FF in 2016 looking increasingly likely with SF leading the Opposition.This is the 7th out of seven by-election which SF has lost since 2011 during a period of unprecedented economic hardship driven home by FG/Labour based on FF plans.

  • Jag

    Unofficial 100% tallies, FF 28%, FG 21%, SF 17%, Renua 10%, Labour 7%.

    FF will take it, but there will be focus on how transfer friendly SF has become, but regardless, SF likely to take one seat in 2016.

  • Jag

    Official 100% tallies – FF 27.8%, FG, 20.6%, SF 16.2%, Renua 9.5%, Labour 7.0%

    Now the transfers begin. FF a dead cert. SF will be happy enough with 1st preferences, but will be interesting to see how transfer friendly they are.

  • Jag

    Official marriage referendum yes 62%, no 38%, urban/rural split not as pronounced as expected but the 70% yesses all seem to be Dublin and the low 50%s generally appear to be rural areas.

  • Jag

    No overall word at all on the presidential age, but looking like it will remain 35 with around 65% voting against the change.

  • Jag

    When Mick eventually wakes up with a presumed massive hangover after the Eurovision/Yes vote, he’ll no doubt get around to an analysis of the Carlow-Kilkenny by-election.

    FF will be relieved, they’ve been forgiven, Micheal Martin has a rare electoral success (yes, they did well in the locals but dismally in byelections and Europe) and it really is beginning to look like a FG/FF coalition in 2016.

    SF will be relieved, they’ve trebled (CORRECTION:nearly doubled) their first preference votes from 2011, from 5.5% (CORRECTION: 9.5% of which Kathleen Funchion received 5.5% and John Cassin 4%) to 16.2%, they’ve attracted 5,500 transfers compared with 3,000 (CORRECTION: 3,500)in 2011. It’s well below the 20-25% in the opinion polls, but this is a hostile constituency, and they are now on course for one seat in 2016.

    FG will be disappointed, it was FG Phil Hogan’s seat which gave rise to the election. FG are in the high 20s in opinion polls, statistically significantly ahead of FF and SF. The economy is growing strongly, we’ve had more than 30 months of consistent declines in the unemployment rate, and there will be a giveaway in the Budget in October. Yet, here, FG achieved just 21% first preferences, and came second overall. After the eighth count, FG was on 18,875 with SF on 16,437.

    Labour is toast. It polled just 7% of first preferences, down from 11% in 2011, and its transfers have skedaddled. It will be lucky to have 10 seats in 2016.

    Renua did okay on its first electoral outing, but its candidate was a spurned FFer, who, but for John McGuinness would likely have been the FF candidate. It won 10% of 1st preferences, I thought he’d do better, but it’s looking good for a seat in 2016. And Renua only needs a handful of seats to negotiate a place in a coalition government that will be lucky to get a 78 seat majority (PP is predicting 55 seats for FG and 32 for FF 30 for SF 31 for Others 14 for Labour).

  • Jag

    One step forward, one step back for FF, with one of its highest profile senators, Averil Power resigning the whip, citing the milksop party support for the marriage equality referendum.

    So, the FF parliamentary party since 2011 has lost Brian Lenihan who died, acquired Colm Keaveney who crossed the floor from the Labour party, gained the byelection last weekend, and now lost one of its senators.

    So, FF has 12 of 60 senators and 21 of 166 TDs. It still looks set to get into coalition with FG in 2016, but questions linger over Micheal Martin’s leadership with opposition coalescing around Eamon O’Cuiv and Micheal McGrath.