If there’s any drama in the #EP14 election it’s going to be the battle for the last seat…

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So, courtesy of Alex Kane, here’s the latest poll survey for the #EP14…

Adds: This was a survey of an expert panel of 220, not as I wrongly suggested a poll. So treat it as an intelligent guess rather than an opinion poll. Apologies.

Three things stand out for me:

  • One, the small shift between the SDLP has over the UUP which establishes a distance between that it is outside inside the margin of error.
  • Two, the disappointing showing for Anna Lo, who’s only on twice the figure NI21 is pulling in after less than a year.
  • Three, Allister’s lost vote seems to have disappeared right off the graph.

Two nationalist seats then? Maybe. But Attwood needs to pull in the upper range of the 3% margin of error. He’ll be looking for transfers from Sinn Fein’s poll topper and Anna Lo.

That lowish Alliance figure is in the same range as the 5.5% a less high profile Ian Parsley pulled in five years ago. She’d need to move up a few points more to give him a decent chance.

On the other hand, Nicholson may have the same surplus from Diane Dodds, but Allister looks like he’s slipped badly (13.66 to 7.8), so there won’t be as much to pick from him as last time.

It’s hard to comment on the smaller parties, since they all sit on a margin of error between six and zero.

Intriguingly there’s not sign of much effect from the flags debacle here.

The tiny shifts there are to be seen are marginal and reflect a long term weakening of the UUP position, with NI21 seemingly accounting for most of it three point loss.

When you think that nothing much has changed in these general patterns since 2007, we are on a plateau. The real story at the end of the day may be plummeting turnout.

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