Some interesting polling figures on Nolan last night regarding the long term effects of the Good Friday Agreement.
Stand out difference is that whilst 78% of nationalists would still vote Yes, 41% of unionists would. There’s no way of really measuring that against the original poll, but Wesley Johnston estimates that 60% unionists voted Yes whilst Nationalists came in at 94% (which I think is a tad optimistic).
But the proportions of those who would vote NO is also down, with just 4% of nationalists and 25% unionists. So the balance on either side is shifting to ‘don’t know’…
And on whether Stormont is working well, or not 70% of nationalists and 39% of unionists say Yes, whilst 41% of the latter say No.
Tackling sectarianism? For all the talk of share future, and building united community, the public’s response is pretty universal: Get away with ya! But interestingly whilst 39% nationalists say Yes, just half of that proportion of unionists approve (22%).
Are we more divided? More says no than yes. 59% of nationalists and 41% of unionists say we’re less divided, whilst the figure for no are 11% and 19%. A significant proportion (29% nationalists and 39% unionists) say there’s been no substantive change.
Thoughts? Mine are that unionists are generally more sceptical than nationalists. I don’t see any catastrophic collapse in sentiment, but perhaps an acceptance that we are in a new space. And as Alan has noted in the past, unionist voters are looking for performance where nationalist may in aggregate just be happier with representation at the top table.