IPSOS/MORI poll on Good Friday Agreement: Scepticism on Stormont’s ‘progress’ on sectarianism

Some interesting polling figures on Nolan last night regarding the long term effects of the Good Friday Agreement.

Stand out difference is that whilst 78% of nationalists would still vote Yes, 41% of unionists would. There’s no way of really measuring that against the original poll, but Wesley Johnston estimates that 60% unionists voted Yes whilst Nationalists came in at 94% (which I think is a tad optimistic).

But the proportions of those who would vote NO is also down, with just 4% of nationalists and 25% unionists. So the balance on either side is shifting to ‘don’t know’…

And on whether Stormont is working well, or not 70% of nationalists and 39% of unionists say Yes, whilst 41% of the latter say No.

Tackling sectarianism? For all the talk of share future, and building united community, the public’s response is pretty universal: Get away with ya! But interestingly whilst 39% nationalists say Yes, just half of that proportion of unionists approve (22%).

Are we more divided? More says no than yes. 59% of nationalists and 41% of unionists say we’re less divided, whilst the figure for no are 11% and 19%. A significant proportion (29% nationalists and 39% unionists) say there’s been no substantive change.

Thoughts? Mine are that unionists are generally more sceptical than nationalists. I don’t see any catastrophic collapse in sentiment, but perhaps an acceptance that we are in a new space. And as Alan has noted in the past, unionist voters are looking for performance where nationalist may in aggregate just be happier with representation at the top table.

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