The latest Boundary Commission News..

The Irish Times summarises the Boundary Commission for Northern Ireland’s proposals for Westminster and thus Stormont costituencies.

Based on recent elections, the two parties most likely to lose Westminster seats are the SDLP and DUP.This could result in a Westminster representation of: DUP, seven seats (down one); Sinn Féin, five seats; SDLP, two seats (down one), Independent unionist (Lady Hermon in North Down), one seat, Alliance, one seat.The SDLP is likely to be especially concerned about the proposed Westminster changes as the South Belfast constituency would transfer into the new constituencies of Belfast South West and Belfast South East.This could threaten the seat of the SDLP’s Dr Alasdair McDonnell, who in the previous British general election won what was a longstanding Ulster Unionist seat. He retained the seat in last year’s Westminster poll.While SDLP support would shift into the two new constituencies, it would seem that in Belfast South West Sinn Féin would hold the advantage, while in Belfast South East, Alliance or the DUP would appear to have the best chance of taking this.

The Tele provides more of the detail but I can’t find the Provisional Recommendations on-line –  Can anyone?

H/T to John in the comments – the BBC have a map.

H/T to Andrew Gallagher for a more detailed map.

And the Boundary Commission’s proposals on PDF.

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  • Dewi. Alliance seem to think they have a good chance with that E Belfast seat with the arrival of part of the old SB now going into it.McDonnell only succeeded in showing his sour grapes on his appearance on TV yesterday.

  • Nordie Northsider

    Mark: ‘Why would SF’s most high profile elected member in the north risk losing any electoral contest?

    The chances of him running in Foyle are somewhere between idiot and arse….’

    A charming response, but I should point out that I’m not the only one who sees this as an outside possibility. Here’s Gerry Moriarty in yesterday’s Irish Times: ‘The new constituency of Glenshane takes over a considerable portion of Mid Ulster, currently held by Sinn Féin Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness.

    If he were not prompted to try and compete against the SDLP former leader Mark Durkan in Foyle, Mr McGuinness could run in Glenshane.’

    500 votes behind the SDLP at the last election; three wards from West Tyrone being added to Foyle; the prospect of reducing the SDLP to one Westminster seat – I’d be tempted. Failing that they could stand Martina Anderson and lose again.

  • Dewi

    500 behind SDLP? Which election do you refer to NN?

  • Dewi

    Ahh 1st preferences in Assembly..

  • FuturePhysicist

    I can see why Colum Eastwood was nominated as deputy leader of the SDLP, but the SDLP should keep Foyle regardless if he is or not, especially if there’s a higher turnout.

  • FuturePhysicist

    In Foyle though the SDLP have really had a lot of young candidates below their 40’s in the elections in that area.

    Mark H Durkan
    Colum Eastwood
    Martin Reilly
    Pól Callaghan
    Eammon McCauley
    Jimmy Carr
    Dermott Henderson
    Brenda Stevenson

    to name a few …

  • john

    I find it odd that we havent had a separate article on the DUP accusing the boundary commision of gerrymandering yet!!

    http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/mp-gregory-campbell-slams-electoral-plans-16112326.html?r=RSS#IDComment281548865

  • john
  • john

    Here is a list of all the consultation proposals. A good read especially the DUP proposals (for a laugh)
    South Belfast and the new Glenshane constituency seem to be the main topics that annoyed people (for obvious reasons)
    Some of the independent proposals are well thought out and offer genuine alternatives whilst others seem as if they were written on the back of a packet of cigarettes. Others seem to be extremley insular – Im all for change but not in my constituency and others are verging on the ridiculous with the odd snob thrown in for good measure not wanting Malone to be mixed in with those West Belfast working class types!
    Enjoy the read Im sure the Commision had a laugh too.

    http://www.boundarycommission.org.uk/index/current-review/submissions.html

  • john

    If my posts have helped motivate any of you then its not to late to have a say!

    ”Last September, the Boundary Commission for Northern Ireland published its provisional proposals for
    changed parliamentary constituencies and invited comment on them. We also held three public hearings.
    Copies of our proposals, the submissions we received and the transcripts of the public hearings are available on our website.
    http://www.boundarycommission.org.uk
    Now we want your views on the submissions we have received.
    You have 4 weeks to do this from 31 January 2012 to 27 February 2012.
    Please tell us what you think.
    You can email us at review@boundarycommission.org.uk
    or write to us at BCNI, Forestview, Purdy’s Lane, Belfast, BT8 7AR.
    If you have any queries you can phone us on 028 9069 4800”

    Taken from the boundary commision website.