What if we re-run the Boundary Commission for 650 MPs, 18 in Northern Ireland?

Rumours started last week suggesting that the newly re-elected British government now plans to drop the current Boundary Commission proposals to cut the House of Commons to 600 MPs, and to start a new revision process which would keep the number of MPs at 650. It was always going to be a stretch to get 50 MPs to vote for their own abolition, so I am not at all surprised that this is where we will end up. Remember that …

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Boundary Commission – the detailed projections

So, the Boundary Commission’s report is finally out, as already discussed by Mick and commentators here. As ever I have done some number-crunching; details below but here are the headlines. At Westminster level, five currently DUP-held seats are squashed into four – East Londonderry is replaced by the new seat of Causeway; most of North Antrim becomes Mid Antrim; South Antrim is split several ways, and the new seat with that name actually has more of the old Lagan Valley …

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The 17 new constituencies?

Northern Ireland's parliamentary map is about to be redrawn again, with the number of seats cut from 18 to 17. This is likely to result in Belfast being reduced from four seats to three, two of which (on recent form) look like decent prospects for Sinn Féin. The former SDLP leader's seat of South Belfast is unlikely to survive, and the new boundaries of the South Antrim seat held by the UUP's Danny Kennedy Kinahan (thanks Kevin and Windowlean) are …

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The 16 seats to come

Back in 2011-12, we had prolonged discussions about the knock-on effects for Northern Ireland of the previous government’s proposals to cut the number of MPs in the House of Commons down to 600, which in Northern Ireland’s case would have meant a decrease from 18 MPs to 16. That didn’t happen in the end, as the Liberal Democrats withdrew their support for the proposed changes, but the legislation remains on the statute book, and unless it is changed (and signals …

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McDonnell, Long, Campbell and Paisley Jnr will sleep easy for another three years …

In a highly understandable piece of political tit for tat, the Liberal Democrats have delayed their support for Parliamentary boundary changes in response to the Tory’s contribution to the slow death of any House of Lords reform. (The proposed boundary changes to Westminster constituencies were judged to have favoured Conservative MPs.) Alasdair McDonnell, Naomi Long, Gregory Campbell and Ian Paisley Jnr will breath a sign of relief as this buys them another opportunity for re-election in 2015. As Mark Devenport …

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Ending co-terminosity

One of the less frequently used buzz-words in Northern Irish politics is “co-terminosity”, which is shorthand for the fact that members of the Northern Ireland Assembly are elected from constituencies with the same boundaries as those used for Westminster elections. It seems to me that co-terminosity has had its day, and if the long-postponed local government reforms come in, it would make a lot of sense to shift to a system where Assembly members are elected from constituencies which are …

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Boundary Review: Belfast SE, North Down and Strangford…

Okay, bit of a hiatus there, but now back at it… Ward data here… Demographics here… And this is the more general picture with old and new boundaries… These three have been chosen because they’re contiguous… they will have some political implications, but the kind of detail we’re looking for is the kind of ticks or mistakes that stand some chance of changing… One party losing too many seats is not a relevant concern here… Belfast South East The transfer of 7 wards from …

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Boundary Review: Fermanagh and the two Tyrones…

So, partly at a suggestion of Andrew and Drumlin’s on the previous thread we’re starting way out west with a less politicially controversial pair of constituencies than those which have already featured in the news. So we begin by looking at Fermanagh and South Tyrone with the new constituency of Mid Tyrone. FST first (map). Here’s the Commission’s notes: The electorate of the Fermanagh and South Tyrone constituency at the review date was 68,979, which is more than 7,000 below the …

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Help us crowdsource ‘local ticks’ in the Boundary Review of Northern Ireland?

Over the next week or so e’re going to give people a chance to dig down into the ward detail of specifics of constituencies. We propose to do it two at a time, featuring one constituency with lots of changes and giving rise to a range of issues, and one less complicated one. That way we’ll not overburden the non anoraks with too many constituency conversations… But before we start, a reminder. This is a set of draft proposals, not …

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The latest Boundary Commission News..

The Irish Times summarises the Boundary Commission for Northern Ireland’s proposals for Westminster and thus Stormont costituencies. Based on recent elections, the two parties most likely to lose Westminster seats are the SDLP and DUP.This could result in a Westminster representation of: DUP, seven seats (down one); Sinn Féin, five seats; SDLP, two seats (down one), Independent unionist (Lady Hermon in North Down), one seat, Alliance, one seat.The SDLP is likely to be especially concerned about the proposed Westminster changes as …

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